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Live · 6
  • MLBEnd 1
    ARI 0@SEA 0
    -5.8ppmedium
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    -6.0ppmedium
  • MLBBot 1
    NYY 0@ATH 2
    +42.8ppmedium
  • MLBBot 4
    SF 0@COL 4
    +58.9pplow
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    -51.8pppeak
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    IND 80@POR 100
    +38.1pplow
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FINAL+4ATL
SF

SF

52-49

5
9
ATL

ATL

44-55

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
34,857 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

SF 5 · ATL 9 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SF1100101015
ATL500301009

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 69-48
62%Last 30 · 332-207
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 23, 25sim 97
    269
    15(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 95
    307
    26(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 1, 25sim 93
    1111
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 21, 25sim 93
    118
    9(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 6, 25sim 93
    1110
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 93
    33
    11(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, Jul 21·Final/SeriesSF wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves held off San Francisco Giants, 9–5.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SF · top performer

SF
Willy Adames

Willy Adames

SS

2.200OPS

5-4

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Ronald Acuna Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr.

RF

1.300OPS

2-1

AB-H

3

R

0

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SF52-49
5
9
ATL44-55
SF52-49·ATL44-55
SF

SF

52-49

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
1-55010000
SPRINT27.148
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
0-33100011
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
2-44120011
SPRINT25.716
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
4-55242100
SPRINT27.457
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
2-44022011
SPRINT28.175
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
0-55000000
W. FloresW. Flores★1B
2-44120000
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
1-44010000
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
0-33001000
Team12-37375125133
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
H. BirdsongH. Birdsong★RP
0.0155400
M. GageM. GageRP
2.0100030
S. BivensS. BivensRP
1.2433220
T. BeckT. BeckRP
1.1000020
R. WalkerR. WalkerRP
2.0211130
C. DovalC. DovalRP
1.0000220
Team8.08999120
ATL

ATL

44-55

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ProfarJ. Profar★LF
0-33100020
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
1-44210012
SPRINT25.513
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
1-22310031
SPRINT26.838
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
3-55236000
SPRINT26.632
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
1-22111021
SPRINT27.354
S. MurphyS. Murphy★C
0-22000011
N. Alvarez Jr.N. Alvarez Jr.★SS
1-44010003
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
0-44000001
N. AllenN. Allen★SS
1-44012003
SPRINT2744
Team8-30309890912
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. ElderB. Elder★SP
5.0833310
A. BummerA. BummerRP
1.0100000
R. MonteroR. MonteroRP
1.0111011
E. De Los SantosE. De Los SantosRP
2.0211010
Team9.01255331

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SF

  • S. Bivens
    53 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      47%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      25%·91.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      13%·94.8 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      9%·84.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      6%·88.4 mph·50% whiff
  • M. Gage
    41 pitches·27% CSW
    • SL
      49%·85.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      29%·92.2 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      10%·93.1 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      7%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      5%·81.8 mph·— whiff
  • C. Doval
    26 pitches·27% CSW
    • SL
      54%·89.2 mph·40% whiff
    • FC
      23%·98.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      23%·96.1 mph·25% whiff
  • H. Birdsong
    25 pitches·16% CSW
    • FF
      64%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      16%·82.7 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      16%·92.0 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      4%·88.7 mph·— whiff
  • R. Walker
    24 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      71%·96.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      29%·85.3 mph·50% whiff
  • T. Beck
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      42%·94.3 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      32%·81.9 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      16%·82.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      11%·89.5 mph·0% whiff

ATL

  • B. Elder
    108 pitches·18% CSW
    • SI
      50%·91.0 mph·4% whiff
    • SL
      33%·84.4 mph·22% whiff
    • CH
      11%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      6%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
  • E. De Los Santos
    26 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      42%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      31%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      27%·88.0 mph·50% whiff
  • R. Montero
    18 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      22%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Bummer
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      50%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      43%·82.1 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      7%·92.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

8

5

Runs

9

2

Errors

0

Current series

SF wins series 2-1

Jul 21SFSF5@ATLATL9today
Jul 22SFSF9@ATLATL0
Jul 23SFSF9@ATLATL3

Season series

SF leads series 3-1

Jun 7ATLATL4@SFSF5
Jun 7ATLATL2@SFSF3
Jun 8ATLATL3@SFSF4
Jul 21SFSF5@ATLATL9today
Jul 22SFSF9@ATLATL0
Jul 23SFSF9@ATLATL3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSF ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 16pp · Bottom 1st Inning

SFSF
W. Adames

W. Adames

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

4-for-5 · 1 HR · 2.200 OPS

M. Gage

M. Gage

RP

Top reliever

2.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 1 H

ATLATL
R. Acuna Jr.

R. Acuna Jr.

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 3 R · 1.300 OPS

B. Elder

B. Elder

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 1 K · 3 ER · 8 H · 3 BB

How it ended

ATL beat SF 9-5.

Win probability

ATL vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLBottom 1st Inning · 1-3
+16pp→ 79% WP

Baldwin · doubled to center, Acuña Jr. scored, Profar scored and Olson scored.

ATLBottom 1st Inning · 1-5
+12pp→ 88% WP

Allen · singled to left, Albies scored and Baldwin scored, Murphy to second.

ATLTop 3rd Inning · 2-5
+10pp→ 83% WP

Chapman · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Adames out at second, Devers to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SF1100101015
ATL50030100—9

Period scoring

SF won 3 · ATL won 3

1
5

Inn 1

Chapman 1

Baldwin 3

1
0

Inn 2

Bailey 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
3

Inn 4

Baldwin 2

1
0

Inn 5

Adames 1

0
1

Inn 6

Baldwin 1

1
0

Inn 7

Adames 1

0
0

Inn 8

1

Inn 9

Chapman 1

SF
ATL

Play-by-play · 648 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    SF 5·ATL 9

  2. T9

    Yastrzemski popped out to first.

    · ·

    SF 5·ATL 9

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 5·ATL 9

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 5·ATL 9

  5. T9

    Enyel De Los Santos pitches to Mike Yastrzemski

    · ·

    SF 5·ATL 9

  6. T9

    ·

    SF 5·ATL 9

  7. T9

    Chapman doubled to left, Adames scored.

    · ·

    SF 5·ATL 9

  8. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 5·ATL 9

  9. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 4·ATL 9

  10. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 4·ATL 9

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 4·ATL 9

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 4·ATL 9

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SF 4·ATL 9

  14. T9

    Enyel De Los Santos pitches to Matt Chapman

    · ·

    SF 5·ATL 9

  15. T9

    ·

    SF 4·ATL 9

  16. T9

    Adames doubled to left.

    ·

    SF 4·ATL 9

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 4·ATL 9

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 4·ATL 9

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SF 4·ATL 9

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SF 4·ATL 9

  21. T9

    Enyel De Los Santos pitches to Willy Adames

    ·

    SF 4·ATL 9

  22. T9

    ·

    SF 4·ATL 9

  23. T9

    Devers struck out swinging.

    ·

    SF 4·ATL 9

  24. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SF 4·ATL 9

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 4·ATL 9

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SF 4·ATL 9

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SF 4·ATL 9

  28. T9

    Enyel De Los Santos pitches to Rafael Devers

    ·

    SF 4·ATL 9

  29. T9

    ·

    SF 4·ATL 9

  30. T9

    Ramos grounded out to third.

    ·

    SF 4·ATL 9

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

5

Runs

9

12

Hits

8

2

Errors

0

19

TB

12

1

HR

0

3

BB

9

3

K

12

19

LOB

18

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 12 players in cohort
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

ATL vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 65 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low
  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low
  • Robbie RaySF
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · SF favored

  • Elo Static

    50.0%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    49.4%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.2%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.34 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.