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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5DET
DET

DET

80-58

5
0
KC

KC

70-67

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
23,689 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

DET 5 · KC 0 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked KC +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
DET0000400105
KC0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 70-49
62%Last 30 · 333-208
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 30, 25sim 97
    65
    7(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 30, 25sim 97
    61
    7(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 96
    210
    25(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 17, 25sim 95
    54
    6(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 95
    133
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 7, 25sim 95
    182
    13(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Aug 31·Final/SeriesDET wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Detroit Tigers went into Kansas City Royals and beat them, 5–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Gleyber Torres

Gleyber Torres

2B

1.100OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Maikel Garcia

Maikel Garcia

3B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
DET80-58
5
0
KC70-67
DET80-58·KC70-67
DET

DET

80-58

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
1-55111002
SPRINT28.381
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
2-44021011
SPRINT25.18
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
0-44000001
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
1-44110011
SPRINT2744
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
0-33100011
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
2-44020001
SPRINT27.969
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
1-33110000
J. RogersJ. Rogers★C
2-44122001
T. SweeneyT. Sweeney★SS
0-22000001
A. IbanezA. Ibanez2B
0-22000000
Team9-3535594039
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. SkubalT. Skubal★SP
7.0400240
K. FinneganK. FinneganRP
1.0000010
R. MonteroR. MonteroRP
1.0000010
Team9.0400260
KC

KC

70-67

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
2-44020001
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
0-44000000
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT25.411
S. PerezS. Perez★C
0-44000000
SPRINT241
R. GrichukR. Grichuk★RF
0-33000002
N. LoftinN. Loftin★2B
0-22000011
L. MaileL. Maile★C
0-22000010
M. MasseyM. Massey★2B
1-33010000
SPRINT26.838
T. TolbertT. Tolbert★2B
0-22000000
A. FrazierA. Frazier2B
0-11000001
M. YastrzemskiM. YastrzemskiLF
0-11000000
Team4-3030040026
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. WachaM. Wacha★SP
4.2544140
D. Lynch IVD. Lynch IVRP
1.1200010
J. BowlanJ. BowlanRP
1.0000120
S. LongS. LongRP
1.0110120
T. ClarkeT. ClarkeRP
1.0100000
Team9.0954390

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

DET

  • T. Skubal
    93 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      42%·96.5 mph·10% whiff
    • CH
      27%·87.5 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      17%·96.5 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      10%·89.6 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      4%·79.5 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Finnegan
    9 pitches·44% CSW
    • FF
      56%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      33%·88.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Montero
    9 pitches·44% CSW
    • FF
      67%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      22%·87.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      11%·95.0 mph·0% whiff

KC

  • M. Wacha
    71 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      31%·93.1 mph·7% whiff
    • SL
      21%·84.1 mph·60% whiff
    • SI
      15%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·79.3 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      11%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·74.6 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Long
    30 pitches·20% CSW
    • CU
      43%·76.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      17%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      3%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Lynch IV
    25 pitches·28% CSW
    • SL
      32%·86.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      24%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      20%·83.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      4%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Clarke
    21 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      38%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      33%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      24%·90.2 mph·75% whiff
    • FF
      5%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Bowlan
    20 pitches·40% CSW
    • SL
      50%·85.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      25%·96.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      15%·95.8 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      5%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      5%·82.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

4

5

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Current series

DET wins series 4-2

May 31DETDET7@KCKC5
May 31DETDET0@KCKC1
Jun 1DETDET1@KCKC0
Aug 30DETDET5@KCKC3
Aug 30DETDET1@KCKC3
Aug 31DETDET5@KCKC0today

Season series

DET wins series 9-4

Apr 17KCKC1@DETDET6
Apr 18KCKC3@DETDET7
Apr 19KCKC1@DETDET3
Apr 20KCKC4@DETDET3
May 31DETDET7@KCKC5
May 31DETDET0@KCKC1
Jun 1DETDET1@KCKC0
Aug 22KCKC5@DETDET7
Aug 23KCKC2@DETDET4
Aug 24KCKC10@DETDET8
Aug 30DETDET5@KCKC3
Aug 30DETDET1@KCKC3
Aug 31DETDET5@KCKC0today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDET ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 19pp · Top 5th Inning

DETDET
G. Torres

G. Torres

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.100 OPS

T. Skubal

T. Skubal

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

KCKC
M. Garcia

M. Garcia

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

M. Wacha

M. Wacha

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

DET beat KC 5-0. Rogers's play in the top 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

KC vs DET

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCBottom 3rd Inning · 0-0
+9pp→ 53% WP

Garcia · doubled to left.

DETTop 5th Inning · 2-0
+19pp→ 85% WP

Rogers · tripled to center, Torkelson scored and McKinstry scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
DET0000400105
KC0000000000

Period scoring

DET won 2 · KC won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

4
0

Inn 5

Rogers 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

DET
KC

Play-by-play · 544 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    DET 5·KC 0

  2. B9

    ·

    DET 5·KC 0

  3. B9

    Frazier struck out looking.

    ·

    DET 5·KC 0

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    DET 5·KC 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    DET 5·KC 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    DET 5·KC 0

  7. B9

    Rafael Montero pitches to Adam Frazier

    ·

    DET 5·KC 0

  8. B9

    Frazier hit for Grichuk

    ·

    DET 5·KC 0

  9. B9

    ·

    DET 5·KC 0

  10. B9

    Perez grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    DET 5·KC 0

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 5·KC 0

  12. B9

    Rafael Montero pitches to Salvador Perez

    · ·

    DET 5·KC 0

  13. B9

    ·

    DET 5·KC 0

  14. B9

    Pasquantino flied out to left.

    ·

    DET 5·KC 0

    −0.5pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 5·KC 0

  16. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    DET 5·KC 0

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    DET 5·KC 0

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    DET 5·KC 0

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 5·KC 0

  20. B9

    Rafael Montero pitches to Vinnie Pasquantino

    ·

    DET 5·KC 0

  21. B9

    Montero relieved Finnegan

    ·

    DET 5·KC 0

  22. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    DET 5·KC 0

  23. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    DET 5·KC 0

  24. T9

    · ·

    DET 5·KC 0

  25. T9

    Greene grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Carpenter out at second.

    · ·

    DET 5·KC 0

  26. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 5·KC 0

  27. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 5·KC 0

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 5·KC 0

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 5·KC 0

  30. T9

    Taylor Clarke pitches to Riley Greene

    · ·

    DET 5·KC 0

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

KC

Home

5

Runs

0

9

Hits

4

0

Errors

0

13

TB

6

0

HR

0

3

BB

2

9

K

6

19

LOB

8

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Nick LoftinKC · 2B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

KC vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low
  • Seth LugoKC
    5.0± 2.1low

Hits

  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.0± 0.9high
  • Riley GreeneDET
    0.9± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.5± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    0.5± 0.8high
  • Salvador PerezKC
    0.5± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.1%

ensemble · KC favored

  • Elo Static

    53.0%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.0%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.2%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.99 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.