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FINAL+2KC
DET

DET

79-58

1
3
KC

KC

70-66

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
26,237 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

DET 1 · KC 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked KC +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
DET0010000001
KC000100023

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

57%Last 7 · 69-51
61%Last 30 · 332-210
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 31, 25sim 97
    65
    7(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 17, 25sim 96
    54
    6(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 18, 25sim 96
    53
    6(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 95
    210
    25(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 1, 25sim 94
    130
    12(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 28, 25sim 94
    60
    11(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Aug 30·Final/SeriesDET wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Kansas City Royals held off Detroit Tigers, 3–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Dillon Dingler

Dillon Dingler

C

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Bobby Witt Jr.

Bobby Witt Jr.

SS

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
DET79-58
1
3
KC70-66
DET79-58·KC70-66
DET

DET

79-58

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
0-44000000
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
1-44011002
SPRINT25.18
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
0-44000000
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
0-44000001
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
1-44010000
SPRINT2744
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
1-44010001
SPRINT27.969
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
3-44030000
SPRINT27.765
T. SweeneyT. Sweeney★SS
1-33110000
A. IbanezA. Ibanez★2B
0-22000000
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry2B
0-11000000
Team7-3434171004
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. FlahertyJ. Flaherty★SP
5.2411241
T. KahnleT. KahnleRP
1.1100030
T. HoltonT. HoltonRP
0.2122101
B. HanifeeB. HanifeeRP
0.1000010
Team8.0633382
KC

KC

70-66

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
0-33000000
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
2-44122101
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
0-22000020
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
1-44111102
SPRINT27.765
S. PerezS. Perez★C
0-33000000
A. FrazierA. Frazier★2B
1-33010001
SPRINT26.225
M. MasseyM. Massey★2B
2-33020001
SPRINT26.838
R. GrichukR. Grichuk★RF
0-33000002
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
0-22000001
N. LoftinN. Loftin2B
0-11000000
Team6-2828363238
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. KolekS. Kolek★SP
6.0411030
J. SchreiberJ. SchreiberRP
0.2200000
A. ZerpaA. ZerpaRP
0.1000000
L. ErcegL. ErcegRP
1.0000010
C. EstevezC. EstevezRP
1.0100000
Team9.0711040

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

DET

  • J. Flaherty
    101 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      49%·93.6 mph·9% whiff
    • SL
      26%·85.9 mph·23% whiff
    • KC
      16%·78.9 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      9%·87.1 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      1%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Kahnle
    23 pitches·39% CSW
    • CH
      91%·87.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      9%·92.7 mph·50% whiff
  • T. Holton
    15 pitches·13% CSW
    • FC
      33%·89.4 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      27%·84.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      20%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·80.5 mph·— whiff
  • B. Hanifee
    5 pitches·40% CSW
    • SL
      60%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      40%·94.1 mph·0% whiff

KC

  • S. Kolek
    71 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      32%·94.0 mph·23% whiff
    • SL
      21%·84.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      18%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      11%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      4%·90.4 mph·33% whiff
  • C. Estevez
    23 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      61%·96.6 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      30%·86.9 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      9%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Schreiber
    19 pitches·5% CSW
    • FF
      47%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      26%·83.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      21%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·94.1 mph·— whiff
  • L. Erceg
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      40%·97.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      27%·84.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·90.0 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      13%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Zerpa
    2 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      100%·96.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

6

1

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

DET wins series 4-2

May 31DETDET7@KCKC5
May 31DETDET0@KCKC1
Jun 1DETDET1@KCKC0
Aug 30DETDET5@KCKC3
Aug 30DETDET1@KCKC3today
Aug 31DETDET5@KCKC0

Season series

DET leads series 8-4

Apr 17KCKC1@DETDET6
Apr 18KCKC3@DETDET7
Apr 19KCKC1@DETDET3
Apr 20KCKC4@DETDET3
May 31DETDET7@KCKC5
May 31DETDET0@KCKC1
Jun 1DETDET1@KCKC0
Aug 22KCKC5@DETDET7
Aug 23KCKC2@DETDET4
Aug 24KCKC10@DETDET8
Aug 30DETDET5@KCKC3
Aug 30DETDET1@KCKC3today
Aug 31DETDET5@KCKC0

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDET ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 31pp · Bottom 8th Inning

DETDET
D. Dingler

D. Dingler

C

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

J. Flaherty

J. Flaherty

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

KCKC
B. Witt Jr.

B. Witt Jr.

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

S. Kolek

S. Kolek

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 4 H

How it ended

KC beat DET 3-1. Witt Jr.'s play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (31pp).

Win probability

KC vs DET

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETTop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 64% WP

Torres · singled to left, Sweeney scored, Ibáñez to third.

KCBottom 4th Inning · 1-1
+14pp→ 52% WP

Garcia · homered to left (428 feet).

KCBottom 8th Inning · 1-3
+31pp→ 94% WP

Witt Jr. · homered to center (427 feet), Tolbert scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
DET0010000001
KC00010002—3

Period scoring

DET won 1 · KC won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Torres 1

0
1

Inn 4

Garcia 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
2

Inn 8

Jr. 2

0

Inn 9

DET
KC

Play-by-play · 520 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    DET 1·KC 3

  2. T9

    Dingler flied out to right.

    · ·

    DET 1·KC 3

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 1·KC 3

  4. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 2

    · ·

    DET 1·KC 3

  5. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    DET 1·KC 3

  6. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    DET 1·KC 3

  7. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 1·KC 3

  8. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 1·KC 3

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    DET 1·KC 3

  10. T9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Dillon Dingler

    · ·

    DET 1·KC 3

  11. T9

    · ·

    DET 1·KC 3

  12. T9

    Pérez grounded out to first, Greene to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    DET 1·KC 3

    +5pp

  13. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    DET 1·KC 3

  14. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    DET 1·KC 3

  15. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    DET 1·KC 3

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 1·KC 3

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    DET 1·KC 3

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 1·KC 3

  19. T9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Wenceel Perez

    · ·

    DET 1·KC 3

  20. T9

    ·

    DET 1·KC 3

  21. T9

    Greene doubled to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    DET 1·KC 3

    −5pp

  22. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 1·KC 3

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    DET 1·KC 3

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    DET 1·KC 3

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    DET 1·KC 3

  26. T9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Riley Greene

    ·

    DET 1·KC 3

  27. T9

    ·

    DET 1·KC 3

  28. T9

    Torkelson grounded out to pitcher.

    ·

    DET 1·KC 3

    +4pp

  29. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 1·KC 3

  30. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    DET 1·KC 3

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

KC

Home

1

Runs

3

7

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

8

TB

12

0

HR

2

0

BB

3

4

K

8

15

LOB

7

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 14 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381

Player projections

KC vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low
  • Seth LugoKC
    5.0± 2.1low

Hits

  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.0± 0.9high
  • Riley GreeneDET
    0.9± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.5± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    0.5± 0.8high
  • Salvador PerezKC
    0.5± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.8%

ensemble · KC favored

  • Elo Static

    51.8%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.2%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.0%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.