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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4CLE
CLE

CLE

80-71

4
0
DET

DET

85-67

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
34,415 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CLE 4 · DET 0 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked DET +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CLE0010010024
DET0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

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Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

57%Last 7 · 69-51
61%Last 30 · 332-210
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 18, 25sim 97
    53
    6(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 30, 25sim 96
    61
    7(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 95
    65
    7(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 93
    210
    25(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 30, 25sim 93
    135
    11(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 18, 25sim 93
    132
    18(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Sep 17·Final/SeriesCLE wins series 6-1

Recap · MLB

Cleveland Guardians went into Detroit Tigers and beat them, 4–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CLE · top performer

CLE
CJ Kayfus

CJ Kayfus

LF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Parker Meadows

Parker Meadows

CF

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CLE80-71
4
0
DET85-67
CLE80-71·DET85-67
CLE

CLE

80-71

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
1-33010010
G. ValeraG. Valera★LF
1-44011012
SPRINT25.513
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
0-22100031
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
1-44010011
B. NaylorB. Naylor★C
1-55012000
SPRINT27.354
G. AriasG. Arias★SS
1-55110001
SPRINT26.530
N. JonesN. Jones★RF
0-44000003
C. KayfusC. Kayfus★LF
1-11110010
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
0-33000010
A. MartinezA. MartinezLF
1-22011001
SPRINT27.765
Team7-3333474089
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. WilliamsG. Williams★SP
5.0300290
T. HerrinT. HerrinRP
0.2100010
M. FestaM. FestaRP
0.2000100
E. SabrowskiE. SabrowskiRP
1.0000100
J. JunisJ. JunisRP
0.2000010
C. SmithC. SmithRP
1.0000020
Team9.04004130
DET

DET

85-67

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
P. MeadowsP. Meadows★CF
2-33020001
SPRINT28.381
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
0-44000002
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
1-33010010
SPRINT26.735
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
0-44000003
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
0-33000011
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
0-44000001
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
1-33010012
SPRINT28.381
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
0-44000002
Z. McKinstryZ. McKinstry★2B
0-22000001
A. IbanezA. Ibanez2B
0-11000000
Team4-31310400413
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. FlahertyJ. Flaherty★SP
5.0311440
B. HurterB. HurterRP
0.2111010
T. KahnleT. KahnleRP
1.0100110
B. HornB. HornRP
1.0000110
J. UrquidyJ. UrquidyRP
1.0222210
C. PaddackC. PaddackSP
0.1000010
Team9.0744890

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CLE

  • G. Williams
    100 pitches·27% CSW
    • CU
      32%·82.0 mph·29% whiff
    • ST
      28%·85.7 mph·46% whiff
    • FF
      26%·96.9 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      14%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Sabrowski
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      61%·94.1 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      33%·86.3 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      6%·79.6 mph·— whiff
  • J. Junis
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • CH
      47%·86.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      27%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·83.5 mph·33% whiff
  • T. Herrin
    14 pitches·43% CSW
    • CU
      57%·81.2 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      36%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      7%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Festa
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • ST
      50%·83.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      25%·93.1 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      13%·90.6 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      13%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Smith
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      50%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      38%·86.1 mph·67% whiff
    • ST
      13%·84.8 mph·0% whiff

DET

  • J. Flaherty
    95 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      41%·93.5 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      36%·84.9 mph·19% whiff
    • KC
      23%·78.5 mph·57% whiff
  • J. Urquidy
    31 pitches·39% CSW
    • CH
      45%·84.9 mph·56% whiff
    • CU
      29%·79.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      23%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      3%·87.4 mph·100% whiff
  • T. Kahnle
    18 pitches·39% CSW
    • CH
      100%·86.2 mph·43% whiff
  • B. Horn
    18 pitches·11% CSW
    • ST
      39%·84.7 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      33%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      11%·88.0 mph·50% whiff
  • B. Hurter
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • ST
      50%·81.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      44%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·87.2 mph·— whiff
  • C. Paddack
    7 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      57%·95.7 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      29%·78.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·86.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

4

4

Runs

0

1

Errors

0

Current series

CLE wins series 6-1

May 22CLECLE7@DETDET0
May 23CLECLE3@DETDET1
May 24CLECLE7@DETDET5
May 25CLECLE0@DETDET5
Sep 16CLECLE7@DETDET5
Sep 17CLECLE4@DETDET0today
Sep 18CLECLE3@DETDET1

Season series

CLE leads series 5-4

May 22CLECLE7@DETDET0
May 23CLECLE3@DETDET1
May 24CLECLE7@DETDET5
May 25CLECLE0@DETDET5
Jul 4DETDET2@CLECLE1
Jul 5DETDET1@CLECLE0
Jul 6DETDET7@CLECLE2
Sep 16CLECLE7@DETDET5
Sep 17CLECLE4@DETDET0today
Sep 18CLECLE3@DETDET1
Sep 23DETDET2@CLECLE5
Sep 24DETDET1@CLECLE5
Sep 25DETDET4@CLECLE2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCLE ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 13pp · Top 3rd Inning

CLECLE
C. Kayfus

C. Kayfus

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

G. Williams

G. Williams

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 9 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

DETDET
P. Meadows

P. Meadows

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

J. Flaherty

J. Flaherty

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 4 BB

How it ended

CLE beat DET 4-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

DET vs CLE

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CLETop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+13pp→ 57% WP

Valera · singled to left, Kayfus scored, Kwan to second.

CLETop 6th Inning · 2-0
+13pp→ 74% WP

Mart · ínez singled to right, Arias scored.

DETBottom 7th Inning · 2-0
+10pp→ 30% WP

Keith · walked.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CLE0010010024
DET0000000000

Period scoring

CLE won 3 · DET won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Valera 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Mart 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

2
0

Inn 9

Naylor 2

CLE
DET

Play-by-play · 648 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CLE 4·DET 0

  2. B9

    ·

    CLE 4·DET 0

  3. B9

    Pérez struck out swinging.

    ·

    CLE 4·DET 0

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CLE 4·DET 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 4·DET 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CLE 4·DET 0

  7. B9

    Cade Smith pitches to Wenceel Perez

    ·

    CLE 4·DET 0

  8. B9

    ·

    CLE 4·DET 0

  9. B9

    Keith struck out swinging.

    ·

    CLE 4·DET 0

  10. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CLE 4·DET 0

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 4·DET 0

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CLE 4·DET 0

  13. B9

    Cade Smith pitches to Colt Keith

    ·

    CLE 4·DET 0

  14. B9

    ·

    CLE 4·DET 0

  15. B9

    Dingler flied out to right.

    ·

    CLE 4·DET 0

    −1pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 4·DET 0

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CLE 4·DET 0

  18. B9

    Cade Smith pitches to Dillon Dingler

    ·

    CLE 4·DET 0

  19. B9

    Smith relieved Junis

    ·

    CLE 4·DET 0

  20. B9

    Noel at first base.

    CLE 4·DET 0

  21. B9

    Schneemann as designated hitter.

    CLE 4·DET 0

  22. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CLE 4·DET 0

  23. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    CLE 4·DET 0

  24. T9

    · ·

    CLE 4·DET 0

  25. T9

    Arias struck out swinging.

    · ·

    CLE 4·DET 0

  26. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CLE 4·DET 0

  27. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 4·DET 0

  28. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 4·DET 0

  29. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 4·DET 0

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CLE 4·DET 0

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

DET

Home

4

Runs

0

7

Hits

4

1

Errors

0

9

TB

5

0

HR

0

8

BB

4

9

K

13

20

LOB

18

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 13 players in cohort
  • Parker MeadowsDET · CF
    SPRINT28.381

Player projections

DET vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low

Hits

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Brayan RocchioCLE
    1.0± 1.1high
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high
  • Kyle ManzardoCLE
    1.6± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Angel MartinezCLE
    0.5± 0.5high
  • Jose RamirezCLE
    0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.9%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    52.3%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.5%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.0%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.78 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.