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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+10DET
HOU

HOU

69-56

0
10
DET

DET

74-53

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan
27,008 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

HOU 0 · DET 10 (by 10)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked DET +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU0000000000
DET0001414010

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 68-48
62%Last 30 · 331-207
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 5, 25sim 98
    187
    28(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 98
    136
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 97
    103
    28(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 96
    184
    28(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 30, 25sim 96
    65
    7(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 96
    134
    12(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, Aug 18·Final/SeriesDET wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Detroit Tigers held off Houston Astros, 10–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Ramon Urias

Ramon Urias

3B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

DET · top performer

DET
Wenceel Perez

Wenceel Perez

RF

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
HOU69-56
0
10
DET74-53
HOU69-56·DET74-53
HOU

HOU

69-56

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaJ. Pena★SS
0-44000002
SPRINT28.483
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
1-33010001
SPRINT27.251
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
1-33010000
SPRINT27.867
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
0-33000011
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
2-33020011
SPRINT25.920
V. CaratiniV. Caratini★C
0-44000002
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
0-44000001
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
0-33000002
J. MeltonJ. Melton★LF
0-22000001
R. UriasR. Urias3B
1-11010000
SPRINT26.735
M. DubonM. DubonSS
0-11000000
Team5-31310500211
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. ArrighettiS. Arrighetti★SP
5.0755452
T. ScottT. ScottRP
1.2555212
B. KingB. KingRP
0.1000010
C. McCormickC. McCormickLF
1.0100110
Team8.0131010784
DET

DET

74-53

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. KeithC. Keith★3B
3-44232100
SPRINT28.381
G. TorresG. Torres★2B
0-33100021
K. CarpenterK. Carpenter★RF
1-22112021
SPRINT26.735
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
1-44112101
SPRINT2744
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
1-22110021
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
2-33121110
SPRINT27.969
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
2-55120001
T. SweeneyT. Sweeney★SS
2-44223101
J. BaezJ. Baez★SS
0-44000001
J. RogersJ. RogersC
0-11000001
A. IbanezA. Ibanez2B
1-11010000
Team13-3333101310478
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. FlahertyJ. Flaherty★SP
7.0300190
T. MeltonT. MeltonSP
1.0000010
A. LangeA. LangeRP
1.0200110
Team9.05002110

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

  • S. Arrighetti
    90 pitches·30% CSW
    • CU
      31%·77.0 mph·57% whiff
    • FF
      27%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      16%·79.4 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      10%·84.6 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      9%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Scott
    42 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      29%·92.1 mph·25% whiff
    • FS
      24%·83.5 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      24%·87.2 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      14%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      10%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
  • C. McCormick
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • FA
      89%·68.4 mph·40% whiff
    • EP
      11%·64.1 mph·0% whiff
  • B. King
    7 pitches·43% CSW
    • FF
      57%·91.9 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      43%·80.4 mph·0% whiff

DET

  • J. Flaherty
    90 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      50%·92.5 mph·6% whiff
    • KC
      27%·78.9 mph·60% whiff
    • SL
      23%·85.4 mph·30% whiff
  • A. Lange
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      60%·88.3 mph·44% whiff
    • CH
      15%·91.1 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      15%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Melton
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      44%·96.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      22%·85.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      11%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      11%·86.4 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      11%·95.7 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

13

0

Runs

10

0

Errors

0

Current series

DET wins series 3-0

Aug 18HOUHOU0@DETDET10today
Aug 19HOUHOU0@DETDET1
Aug 20HOUHOU2@DETDET7

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 29DETDET5@HOUHOU8
Apr 30DETDET4@HOUHOU6
Apr 30DETDET7@HOUHOU4
Aug 18HOUHOU0@DETDET10today
Aug 19HOUHOU0@DETDET1
Aug 20HOUHOU2@DETDET7

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 14pp · Bottom 5th Inning

HOUHOU
R. Urias

R. Urias

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

S. Arrighetti

S. Arrighetti

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 5 ER · 7 H · 4 BB

DETDET
W. Perez

W. Perez

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

J. Flaherty

J. Flaherty

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 9 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

DET beat HOU 10-0.

Win probability

DET vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+11pp→ 68% WP

Keith · singled to right.

DETBottom 4th Inning · 0-1
+13pp→ 73% WP

Pérez homered to right center (385 feet).

DETBottom 5th Inning · 0-3
+14pp→ 93% WP

Carpenter · tripled to right, Keith scored and Torres scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU0000000000
DET00014140—10

Period scoring

HOU won 0 · DET won 4

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

0
4

Inn 5

Carpenter 2

0
1

Inn 6

Keith 1

0
4

Inn 7

Sweeney 3

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

HOU
DET

Play-by-play · 561 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 10

  2. T9

    Diaz flied out to right.

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 10

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 10

  4. T9

    Alex Lange pitches to Yainer Diaz

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 10

  5. T9

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 10

  6. T9

    Caratini struck out swinging.

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 10

  7. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 10

  8. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 10

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 10

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 10

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 10

  12. T9

    Alex Lange pitches to Victor Caratini

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 10

  13. T9

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 10

  14. T9

    Walker singled to left, Sánchez to second, Urías to third.

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 10

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 10

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 10

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 10

  18. T9

    Alex Lange pitches to Christian Walker

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 10

  19. T9

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 10

  20. T9

    Sánchez walked.

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 10

  21. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball 4

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 10

  22. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 10

  23. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 10

  24. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 10

  25. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 10

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 10

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 10

  28. T9

    Urías to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    HOU 0·DET 10

  29. T9

    Urías to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    HOU 0·DET 10

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    HOU 0·DET 10

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

DET

Home

0

Runs

10

5

Hits

13

0

Errors

0

6

TB

30

0

HR

4

2

BB

7

11

K

8

15

LOB

20

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Colt KeithDET · 3B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Jahmai JonesDET · DH
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

DET vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.5± 3.5low
  • Spencer ArrighettiHOU
    5.4± 3.3low

Hits

  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low
  • Kevin McGonigleDET
    1.0± 0.9high
  • Cam SmithHOU
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    1.7± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high
  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.8± 2.4low
  • Framber ValdezDET
    2.7± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.4%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    53.5%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.3%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.3%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.82 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.