MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6ATH

58-63

ATH

54-68

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California

8,305 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.7%

ensemble · ATH favored

Elo Static
52.8%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.8%
P(ATH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.7%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.45 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ATH vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Drew RasmussenTB
6.0± 4.2low
J.T. GinnATH
5.0± 2.9medium
Shane McClanahanTB
5.0± 2.0low

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.5± 1.3high
Jacob WilsonATH
1.2± 0.6high
Shea LangeliersATH
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Shea LangeliersATH
2.4± 2.7high
Nick KurtzATH
2.3± 2.8high
Tyler SoderstromATH
2.1± 2.8high

RBIs

Nick KurtzATH
0.8± 1.0high
Tyler SoderstromATH
0.8± 1.3high
Ryan ViladeTB
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Jeffrey SpringsATH
3.2± 2.4low
Steven MatzTB
2.6± 2.4low
Drew RasmussenTB
1.9± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

ATH

.719

OPS

.715

▶

.735

.335

OBP

◀

.319

.326

4.50

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.32

3.94

Team ERA

◀

4.16

4.60

1.23

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.42

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

TB 0 · ATH 6 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATH +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TB	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
ATH	0	1	0	3	1	0	0	1	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
H. KimSS	.188	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
Y. DiazDH	.279	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
B. Lowe2B	.276	3	0	2	0	0	1	0
J. Caminero3B	.260	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. PereiraRF	.222	4	0	0	0	0	0	4
J. MangumLF	.276	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Morel1B	.205	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. SimpsonLF	.298	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. FortesC	.091	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		30	0	4	0	0	2	11

Player

AVG

RBI

.188

.279

.276

.260

.222

.276

.205

.298

.091

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
S. BazSP	7.0	6	5	4	2	7	93
M. MontgomeryRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	18
Team	8.0	8	6	5	3	7	111

Player

S. BazSP

7.0

M. MontgomeryRP

1.0

Team

8.0

111

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
N. Kurtz1B	.300	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
S. LangeliersC	.276	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
B. RookerDH	.274	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
T. SoderstromLF	.262	4	2	2	0	0	0	0
C. ThomasRF	.200	3	1	2	2	0	0	0
D. HernaizSS	.233	2	0	0	0	0	2	1
L. ButlerRF	.232	4	1	2	2	0	0	0
L. Urias2B	.234	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. Urshela3B	.236	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		30	6	8	4	0	3	7

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. LopezSP	7.0	4	0	0	0	9	96
J. SternerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	7
T. FergusonRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	35
Team	9.0	4	0	0	2	11	138

Team

ATH

—

3 sub-models, blended.

ATH vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATH vs TB.

3 sub-models, blended.