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Live · 5
  • MLBBot 4
    ATL 2@CIN 2
    +5.8pphigh
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    +28.4ppmedium
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    +50.2pppeak
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FINAL+1ATL
NYM

NYM

69-61

3
4
ATL

ATL

59-71

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
34,393 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

NYM 3 · ATL 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYM0200000013
ATL000002024

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 68-47
62%Last 30 · 331-206
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Aug 24·Final/SeriesATL wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves held off New York Mets, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYM · top performer

NYM
Mark Vientos

Mark Vientos

1B

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Sean Murphy

Sean Murphy

C

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · New York Mets at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYM69-61
3
4
ATL59-71
NYM69-61·ATL59-71
NYM

NYM

69-61

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
1-44010011
SPRINT26.941
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
1-33011020
SPRINT25.513
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
0-55000001
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
0-33100011
SPRINT25.920
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
1-44112101
SPRINT25.513
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
0-44000001
R. MauricioR. Mauricio★SS
1-44010002
L. TorrensL. Torrens★C
1-33010000
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
1-22110010
SPRINT27.662
B. NimmoB. NimmoRF
0-11000000
Team6-3333363157
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. PetersonD. Peterson★SP
5.2522480
B. RaleyB. RaleyRP
1.0000000
H. BrazobanH. BrazobanRP
0.1100000
G. SotoG. SotoRP
1.0222110
Team8.0844590
ATL

ATL

59-71

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. ProfarJ. Profar★LF
2-44022010
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
0-55000002
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
2-44020001
SPRINT26.838
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
0-22000021
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
1-44210001
SPRINT27.354
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
1-44110000
SPRINT27.148
N. Alvarez Jr.N. Alvarez Jr.★SS
0-33000012
S. MurphyS. Murphy★C
2-33122011
N. AllenN. Allen★SS
0-22000001
E. WhiteE. WhiteCF
0-11000000
Team8-3232484059
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. ElderB. Elder★SP
6.0322261
P. JohnsonP. JohnsonRP
0.2000210
D. LeeD. LeeRP
0.1000100
T. KinleyT. KinleyRP
1.0000000
R. IglesiasR. IglesiasRP
1.0311000
Team9.0633571

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYM

  • D. Peterson
    98 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      28%·92.5 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      22%·92.0 mph·27% whiff
    • SL
      22%·85.0 mph·83% whiff
    • CU
      18%·78.0 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      9%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Soto
    24 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      79%·97.8 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      21%·86.7 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Brazoban
    9 pitches·11% CSW
    • SI
      67%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      11%·91.6 mph·— whiff
  • B. Raley
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • ST
      50%·80.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      25%·86.6 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      13%·83.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·89.3 mph·0% whiff

ATL

  • B. Elder
    95 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      52%·91.3 mph·21% whiff
    • SL
      21%·84.0 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      17%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Iglesias
    24 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      58%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      21%·89.0 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      13%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·83.4 mph·— whiff
  • P. Johnson
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • CU
      94%·86.2 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      6%·95.9 mph·100% whiff
  • T. Kinley
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • SL
      100%·87.4 mph·29% whiff
  • D. Lee
    6 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      50%·95.4 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      33%·87.1 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      17%·87.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

8

3

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

ATL wins series 4-2

Jun 17NYMNYM4@ATLATL5
Jun 18NYMNYM0@ATLATL5
Jun 19NYMNYM1@ATLATL7
Aug 22NYMNYM12@ATLATL7
Aug 23NYMNYM9@ATLATL2
Aug 24NYMNYM3@ATLATL4today

Season series

ATL wins series 8-5

Jun 17NYMNYM4@ATLATL5
Jun 18NYMNYM0@ATLATL5
Jun 19NYMNYM1@ATLATL7
Jun 23ATLATL3@NYMNYM2
Jun 24ATLATL7@NYMNYM4
Jun 25ATLATL3@NYMNYM7
Jun 26ATLATL0@NYMNYM4
Aug 12ATLATL5@NYMNYM13
Aug 13ATLATL11@NYMNYM6
Aug 14ATLATL4@NYMNYM3
Aug 22NYMNYM12@ATLATL7
Aug 23NYMNYM9@ATLATL2
Aug 24NYMNYM3@ATLATL4today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYM ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 28pp · Bottom 6th Inning

NYMNYM
M. Vientos

M. Vientos

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

D. Peterson

D. Peterson

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 8 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 4 BB

ATLATL
S. Murphy

S. Murphy

C

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

B. Elder

B. Elder

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

ATL beat NYM 4-3. Murphy's play in the bottom 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (28pp).

Win probability

ATL vs NYM

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYMTop 2nd Inning · 2-0
+15pp→ 76% WP

Vientos · homered to left center (402 feet), McNeil scored.

ATLBottom 6th Inning · 2-2
+28pp→ 59% WP

Murphy · singled to right, Albies scored and Harris II scored, Alvarez Jr. to second.

ATLBottom 8th Inning · 2-4
+27pp→ 95% WP

Profar · singled to center, Albies scored and Murphy scored, Bruján to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYM0200000013
ATL00000202—4

Period scoring

NYM won 1 · ATL won 2

0
0

Inn 1

2
0

Inn 2

Vientos 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
2

Inn 6

Murphy 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
2

Inn 8

Profar 2

1

Inn 9

Soto 1

NYM
ATL

Play-by-play · 581 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    NYM 3·ATL 4

  2. T9

    McNeil fouled out to first.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYM 3·ATL 4

    +15pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 3·ATL 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 3·ATL 4

  5. T9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Jeff McNeil

    · ·

    NYM 3·ATL 4

  6. T9

    · ·

    NYM 3·ATL 4

  7. T9

    Alonso popped out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYM 3·ATL 4

    +14pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 3·ATL 4

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 3·ATL 4

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 3·ATL 4

  11. T9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Pete Alonso

    · ·

    NYM 3·ATL 4

  12. T9

    · ·

    NYM 3·ATL 4

  13. T9

    J. Soto singled to left, Mullins scored, Lindor to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYM 3·ATL 4

    −13pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 3·ATL 4

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 2·ATL 4

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    NYM 3·ATL 4

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYM 3·ATL 4

  18. T9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Juan Soto

    · ·

    NYM 3·ATL 4

  19. T9

    · ·

    NYM 2·ATL 4

  20. T9

    Lindor singled to right, Mullins to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYM 2·ATL 4

    −8pp

  21. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 2·ATL 4

  22. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 2·ATL 4

  23. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYM 2·ATL 4

  24. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 2·ATL 4

  25. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYM 2·ATL 4

  26. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 2·ATL 4

  27. T9

    Raisel Iglesias pitches to Francisco Lindor

    · ·

    NYM 2·ATL 4

  28. T9

    ·

    NYM 2·ATL 4

  29. T9

    Mullins singled to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    NYM 2·ATL 4

    −5pp

  30. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 2·ATL 4

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

3

Runs

4

6

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

9

TB

8

1

HR

0

5

BB

5

7

K

9

17

LOB

18

Player projections

ATL vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 68 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.3%

ensemble · NYM favored

  • Elo Static

    50.9%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    49.6%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.5%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.19 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 12 players in cohort
  • Tyrone TaylorNYM · CF
    SPRINT28.891

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 7, 25sim 98
    263
    24(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 3, 25sim 96
    111
    24(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 96
    104
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 96
    303
    5(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 96
    52
    29(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 6, 25sim 96
    268
    24(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs