MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+10NYM

PHI

76-55

313

NYM

70-61

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Citi Field · Queens, New York

41,983 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.2%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
45.0%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
44.4%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
44.7%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.24 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NYM vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

118

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.8± 3.4low
Nolan McLeanNYM
6.7± 2.3low
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.5± 3.6low

Hits

Juan SotoNYM
1.2± 0.8high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
1.1± 1.0high
Bo BichetteNYM
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Juan SotoNYM
2.7± 2.7high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.5± 2.8high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.6± 1.4high

RBIs

Juan SotoNYM
0.8± 1.1high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
0.8± 1.5high
Bo BichetteNYM
0.5± 1.4high

Earned runs

Andrew PainterPHI
3.0± 3.0low
David PetersonNYM
2.8± 3.4low
Nolan McLeanNYM
2.8± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

PHI 3 · NYM 13 (by 10)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
NYM	0	0	0	3	1	2	4	3	13

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
T. Turner★SS	1-5	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT29.798
K. Schwarber★DH	0-3	3	1	0	1	0	1	0
SPRINT25.818
B. Harper★1B	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
SPRINT2744
J.T. Realmuto★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Bohm★3B	1-4	4	0	1	2	0	0	0
SPRINT26.632
B. Marsh★LF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
SPRINT28.175
M. Kepler★LF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
H. Bader★CF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
B. Stott★2B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team	6-32	32	3	6	3	0	4	6

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

1-5

0-3

1-4

0-3

1-4

1-3

1-4

1-3

0-3

Team

6-32

	Pitching
C. Sanchez★SP	5.1	8	6	6	3	4	0
D. RobertsonRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	1	0
J. RomanoRP	1.0	2	4	4	1	2	1
J. RossRP	1.0	3	3	3	1	1	0
Team	8.0	14	13	13	6	8	1

Pitching

Player

5.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

	Batting
F. Lindor★SS	0-6	6	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. Soto★LF	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	2	1
S. Marte★RF	1-3	3	1	1	1	0	1	1
P. Alonso★1B	1-5	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
M. Vientos★1B	2-3	3	1	2	2	0	0	0
SPRINT25.513
B. Nimmo★RF	1-4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0
SPRINT28.278
T. Taylor★CF	3-4	4	3	3	1	0	1	0
SPRINT28.891
J. McNeil★2B	2-4	4	0	2	3	0	0	1
SPRINT25.920
L. Torrens★C	3-5	5	2	3	5	1	0	0
SPRINT26.428

Team	14-37	37	13	14	13	1	6	8

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI