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  • MLBBot 5
    NYY 1@ATH 2
    +42.6ppmedium
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    +21.5ppmedium
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FINAL+4BOS
BOS

BOS

84-70

11
7
TB

TB

75-79

George M. Steinbrenner Field · Tampa, Florida
10,046 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 11 · TB 7 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS01100027011
TB1110000047

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

57%Last 7 · 69-51
61%Last 30 · 332-210
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 16, 25sim 96
    1212
    7(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 2, 25sim 94
    1412
    17(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 25, 25sim 93
    223
    21(H)13
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 17, 25sim 93
    125
    7(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 3, 25sim 93
    1413
    17(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 2, 25sim 93
    197
    23(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, Sep 19·Final/SeriesBOS wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Boston Red Sox went into Tampa Bay Rays and beat them, 11–7.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Alex Bregman

Alex Bregman

3B

1.933OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

TB · top performer

TB
Yandy Diaz

Yandy Diaz

DH

2.300OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BOS84-70
11
7
TB75-79
BOS84-70·TB75-79
BOS

BOS

84-70

11
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
2-66222102
SPRINT29.294
T. StoryT. Story★SS
0-66101002
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
1-33111120
SPRINT25.818
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
1-44111010
R. GonzalezR. Gonzalez★1B
1-55110000
N. EatonN. Eaton★OF
2-44221011
N. LoweN. Lowe★DH
1-33112011
SPRINT25.411
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
0-55000002
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
4-55241000
SPRINT28.790
N. SogardN. Sogard3B
0-11000000
Team12-424211129258
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. CrochetG. Crochet★SP
6.0433392
J. SlatenJ. SlatenRP
1.0000020
Z. KellyZ. KellyRP
1.0000000
C. MurphyC. MurphyRP
1.0444221
Team9.08775133
TB

TB

75-79

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
E. PereiraE. Pereira★RF
1-55114103
SPRINT27.457
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
3-44231110
SPRINT25.716
C. MorelC. Morel★1B
0-11000021
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
0-55000002
N. FortesN. Fortes★C
1-44011000
SPRINT26.225
T. GrayT. Gray★3B
0-33100011
R. PalaciosR. Palacios★2B
0-33100011
C. WilliamsC. Williams★SS
1-44111102
BB. Seymour★1B
1-44110003
J. MangumJ. MangumLF
1-22010000
Team8-35357873513
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. RasmussenD. Rasmussen★SP
3.0422121
C. SulserC. SulserRP
2.0100110
G. JaxG. JaxRP
1.0000020
G. CleavingerG. CleavingerRP
0.2222011
C. WilcoxC. WilcoxRP
1.0473310
E. UcetaE. UcetaRP
1.1100010
Team9.012117582

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

  • G. Crochet
    98 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      33%·96.6 mph·24% whiff
    • FC
      24%·91.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      21%·96.8 mph·29% whiff
    • ST
      19%·84.2 mph·55% whiff
    • CH
      2%·86.0 mph·— whiff
  • C. Murphy
    29 pitches·38% CSW
    • CU
      24%·78.2 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      21%·94.3 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      21%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      21%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·83.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      3%·79.8 mph·— whiff
  • Z. Kelly
    18 pitches·11% CSW
    • FF
      28%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      22%·81.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·82.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      17%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      11%·82.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·94.1 mph·— whiff
  • J. Slaten
    12 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      42%·96.7 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      33%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      17%·85.5 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      8%·85.2 mph·100% whiff

TB

  • D. Rasmussen
    76 pitches·30% CSW
    • FC
      39%·90.2 mph·31% whiff
    • FF
      30%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      25%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      4%·83.9 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      1%·80.6 mph·— whiff
  • C. Wilcox
    39 pitches·15% CSW
    • SI
      36%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      26%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      23%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      15%·87.0 mph·33% whiff
  • C. Sulser
    30 pitches·30% CSW
    • CH
      47%·83.9 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      30%·93.7 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      23%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Uceta
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.5 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      19%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·93.4 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      6%·82.6 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Cleavinger
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • SL
      57%·87.3 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      21%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      21%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Jax
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • ST
      38%·87.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      15%·92.8 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      15%·92.8 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      15%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      15%·96.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

8

11

Runs

7

1

Errors

3

Current series

BOS wins series 4-2

Apr 14BOSBOS1@TBTB16
Apr 15BOSBOS7@TBTB4
Apr 16BOSBOS1@TBTB0
Sep 19BOSBOS11@TBTB7today
Sep 20BOSBOS6@TBTB3
Sep 21BOSBOS3@TBTB7

Season series

BOS leads series 9-2

Apr 14BOSBOS1@TBTB16
Apr 15BOSBOS7@TBTB4
Apr 16BOSBOS1@TBTB0
Jun 9TBTB10@BOSBOS8
Jun 10TBTB1@BOSBOS3
Jun 11TBTB3@BOSBOS4
Jul 10TBTB3@BOSBOS4
Jul 11TBTB4@BOSBOS5
Jul 12TBTB0@BOSBOS1
Jul 13TBTB1@BOSBOS4
Sep 19BOSBOS11@TBTB7today
Sep 20BOSBOS6@TBTB3
Sep 21BOSBOS3@TBTB7

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ TB

Biggest swing: 33pp · Top 7th Inning

BOSBOS
A. Bregman

A. Bregman

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.933 OPS

G. Crochet

G. Crochet

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 9 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

TBTB
Y. Diaz

Y. Diaz

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.300 OPS

D. Rasmussen

D. Rasmussen

SP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

BOS beat TB 11-7. Duran's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (33pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TB vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BOSTop 3rd Inning · 2-2
+14pp→ 52% WP

Bregman · homered to left (362 feet).

TBBottom 3rd Inning · 2-3
+16pp→ 65% WP

Díaz homered to right (365 feet).

BOSTop 7th Inning · 4-3
+33pp→ 73% WP

Duran · homered to right (385 feet), Rafaela scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS01100027011
TB1110000047

Period scoring

BOS won 2 · TB won 2

0
1

Inn 1

Fortes 1

1
1

Inn 2

Lowe 1

Williams 1

1
1

Inn 3

Bregman 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

2
0

Inn 7

Duran 2

7
0

Inn 8

Duran 2

0
4

Inn 9

Pereira 4

BOS
TB

Play-by-play · 657 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BOS 11·TB 7

  2. B9

    · ·

    BOS 11·TB 7

  3. B9

    J. Lowe struck out swinging.

    · ·

    BOS 11·TB 7

    −2pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 11·TB 7

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BOS 11·TB 7

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 11·TB 7

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 11·TB 7

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 11·TB 7

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 11·TB 7

  10. B9

    Chris Murphy pitches to Josh Lowe

    · ·

    BOS 11·TB 7

  11. B9

    · ·

    BOS 11·TB 7

  12. B9

    Mangum singled to center, Díaz to second.

    · ·

    BOS 11·TB 7

    +0.9pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 11·TB 7

  14. B9

    Chris Murphy pitches to Jake Mangum

    · ·

    BOS 11·TB 7

  15. B9

    ·

    BOS 11·TB 7

  16. B9

    Díaz singled to center.

    ·

    BOS 11·TB 7

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 11·TB 7

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 11·TB 7

  19. B9

    Chris Murphy pitches to Yandy Diaz

    ·

    BOS 11·TB 7

  20. B9

    ·

    BOS 11·TB 7

  21. B9

    Pereira homered to left (412 feet), Gray scored, Palacios scored and B. Seymour scored.

    · ·

    BOS 11·TB 7

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 11·TB 7

  23. B9

    Chris Murphy pitches to Everson Pereira

    · ·

    BOS 11·TB 7

  24. B9

    · ·

    BOS 11·TB 3

  25. B9

    B. Seymour singled to right, Palacios to second, Gray to third.

    · ·

    BOS 11·TB 3

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 11·TB 3

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 11·TB 3

  28. B9

    Chris Murphy pitches to Bob Seymour

    · ·

    BOS 11·TB 3

  29. B9

    · ·

    BOS 11·TB 3

  30. B9

    Williams struck out swinging.

    · ·

    BOS 11·TB 3

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

TB

Home

11

Runs

7

12

Hits

8

1

Errors

3

21

TB

18

2

HR

3

5

BB

5

8

K

13

23

LOB

13

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 12 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Jake MangumPIT · LF
    SPRINT2993

Player projections

TB vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Connelly EarlyBOS
    5.1± 2.1low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 3.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low
  • Connelly EarlyBOS
    1.9± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.3%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    46.4%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    46.1%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    46.5%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.17 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.