HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 8
  • MLBTop 4
    COL 0@ATH 0
    -8.5pphigh
  • MLBTop 3
    CHC 0@SF 0
    +1.8pphigh
  • MLBTop 5
    TB 2@LAA 4
    +58.0pplow
  • MLBBot 7
    STL 7@MIN 4
    -43.6pplow
  • MLBEnd 7
    ATL 3@NYM 7
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBMid 7
    SEA 8@WSH 1
    -47.4pplow
  • WNBA2:55 - 2nd
    GS 33@SEA 32
    +4.1pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5ARI
BOS

BOS

78-64

5
10
ARI

ARI

71-71

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona
39,126 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BOS

BOS

league avg

ARI

ARI

.696

OPS

.715

.690

.314

OBP

◀

.319

.306

4.00

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.26

3.89

Team ERA

◀

4.16

4.23

1.28

WHIP

1.31

1.28

8.6

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

BOS 5 · ARI 10 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BOS +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS0100000405
ARI1130100410

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

66%Last 7 · 69-36
61%Last 30 · 307-194
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Sep 5·Final/SeriesARI wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Arizona Diamondbacks held off Boston Red Sox, 10–5.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1P. TolleBOS−42.0pp
  2. 2G. PerdomoARI+23.6pp
  3. 3B. AlexanderARI+22.6pp

BOS · top performer

BOS
Romy Gonzalez

Romy Gonzalez

1B

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

ARI · top performer

ARI
Geraldo Perdomo

Geraldo Perdomo

SS

2.200OPS

5-4

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at Arizona Diamondbacks · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
J. DuranLF
.2584100011
A. Bregman3B
.2844122000
T. StorySS
.2594110001
R. Gonzalez1B
.3063121000
R. RefsnyderDH
.2794011001
N. LoweDH
.3253011011
N. EatonOF
.2554000002
C. RafaelaCF
.2464000001
C. NarvaezC
.2503110011
- D. HamiltonSS
.2000000000
Team33585038

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
P. TolleSP
3.05554277
G. WeissertRP
1.01000122
C. MurphyRP
3.01113143
J. SlatenRP
1.04440118
Team8.011101075160

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
K. Marte2B
.2883000021
G. PerdomoSS
.2875242100
C. CarrollRF
.2595123102
G. MorenoC
.2743200020
B. Alexander3B
.2381100030
I. Vargas1B
.2544123100
J. LawlarLF
.0833111000
T. Locklear1B
.1754110001
J. BarrosaCF
.1304110001
- A. ThomasCF
.2480000000
Team3210119375

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
E. RodriguezSP
6.04112496
R. ThompsonRP
1.00000214
B. JarvisRP
0.03441019
A. SaalfrankRP
1.01000115
T. RashiRP
1.00000112
Team9.085538156

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

  • G. Weissert
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      33%·93.6 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      27%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      13%·81.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·84.0 mph·0% whiff

ARI

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

11

5

Runs

10

0

Errors

0

Current series

ARI wins series 2-1

Sep 6BOSBOS5@ARIARI10today
Sep 7BOSBOS1@ARIARI5
Sep 7BOSBOS7@ARIARI4

Season series

ARI leads series 1-0

Sep 6BOSBOS5@ARIARI10today
Sep 7BOSBOS1@ARIARI5
Sep 7BOSBOS7@ARIARI4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ ARI

Biggest swing: 18pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

BOSBOS
R. Gonzalez

R. Gonzalez

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.333 OPS

P. Tolle

P. Tolle

SP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 2 K · 5 ER · 5 H · 4 BB

ARIARI
G. Perdomo

G. Perdomo

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

4-for-5 · 1 HR · 2.200 OPS

E. Rodriguez

E. Rodriguez

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

ARI beat BOS 10-5. Vargas's play in the bottom 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

ARI vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BOSTop 2nd Inning · 1-1
+14pp→ 50% WP

Lowe · tripled to right, González scored.

ARIBottom 3rd Inning · 1-5
+18pp→ 91% WP

Vargas · homered to left (407 feet), Moreno scored and Alexander scored.

BOSTop 8th Inning · 5-6
+12pp→ 31% WP

Refsnyder · doubled to center, Story scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS0100000405
ARI11301004—10

Period scoring

BOS won 0 · ARI won 3

0
1

Inn 1

Perdomo 1

1
1

Inn 2

Lowe 1

Marte 1

0
3

Inn 3

Vargas 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Lawlar 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

4
4

Inn 8

Bregman 2

Carroll 3

0

Inn 9

BOS
ARI

Play-by-play · 602 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    BOS 5·ARI 10

  2. T9

    Duran grounded out to first.

    ·

    BOS 5·ARI 10

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 5·ARI 10

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 5·ARI 10

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 5·ARI 10

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    BOS 5·ARI 10

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 5·ARI 10

  8. T9

    Taylor Rashi pitches to Jarren Duran

    ·

    BOS 5·ARI 10

  9. T9

    ·

    BOS 5·ARI 10

  10. T9

    Narváez struck out swinging.

    ·

    BOS 5·ARI 10

  11. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 5·ARI 10

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    BOS 5·ARI 10

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    BOS 5·ARI 10

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 5·ARI 10

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 5·ARI 10

  16. T9

    Taylor Rashi pitches to Carlos Narvaez

    ·

    BOS 5·ARI 10

  17. T9

    ·

    BOS 5·ARI 10

  18. T9

    Rafaela fouled out to first.

    ·

    BOS 5·ARI 10

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 5·ARI 10

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 5·ARI 10

  21. T9

    Taylor Rashi pitches to Ceddanne Rafaela

    ·

    BOS 5·ARI 10

  22. T9

    Rashi relieved Saalfrank

    ·

    BOS 5·ARI 10

  23. T9

    Thomas in center field.

    BOS 5·ARI 10

  24. T9

    Alexander at third base.

    BOS 5·ARI 10

  25. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    BOS 5·ARI 10

  26. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    BOS 5·ARI 10

  27. B8

    ·

    BOS 5·ARI 10

  28. B8

    Moreno flied out to center.

    ·

    BOS 5·ARI 10

  29. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 5·ARI 10

  30. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    BOS 5·ARI 10

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

ARI

Home

5

Runs

10

8

Hits

11

0

Errors

0

13

TB

21

0

HR

3

3

BB

7

8

K

5

10

LOB

13

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • David HamiltonMIL · SS
    SPRINT29.294
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL · 3B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

ARI vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.0± 3.9low
  • Ranger SuarezBOS
    5.6± 3.6low
  • Connelly EarlyBOS
    5.4± 2.0low

Hits

  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.0± 1.0high
  • Geraldo PerdomoARI
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.5high
  • Caleb DurbinBOS
    1.8± 2.6high
  • Jordan LawlarARI
    1.7± 1.8low

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    0.7± 1.0high
  • Caleb DurbinBOS
    0.6± 0.9high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.6± 3.5low
  • Ryne NelsonARI
    3.4± 3.5low
  • Zac GallenARI
    3.2± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.0%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    45.6%

    P(ARI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    46.9%

    P(ARI win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    45.5%

    P(ARI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.63 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.