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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1TOR
TOR

TOR

64-46

9
8
BAL

BAL

50-59

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
17,049 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TOR 9 · BAL 8 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TOR +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TOR0200115009
BAL3000203008

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 61-39
62%Last 30 · 322-200
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 25, 25sim 95
    223
    21(H)13
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 19, 25sim 92
    211
    30(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 92
    1212
    7(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 6, 25sim 92
    25
    29(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 23, 25sim 92
    147
    28(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 3, 25sim 91
    1413
    17(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Jul 30·Final/SeriesBAL wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Toronto Blue Jays went into Baltimore Orioles and beat them, 9–8. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Nathan Lukes

Nathan Lukes

RF

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Jordan Westburg

Jordan Westburg

3B

1.400OPS

5-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TOR64-46
9
8
BAL50-59
TOR64-46·BAL50-59
TOR

TOR

64-46

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. LoperfidoJ. Loperfido★LF
3-55130001
SPRINT28.688
E. ClementE. Clement★2B
2-55120001
SPRINT27.354
V. Guerrero Jr.V. Guerrero Jr.★1B
2-44021010
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
1-55112000
SPRINT25.716
A. BargerA. Barger★RF
0-33200013
D. SchneiderD. Schneider★LF
0-44100011
W. WagnerW. Wagner★3B
0-11000010
M. StrawM. Straw★RF
3-44133100
SPRINT29.597
A. SanchezA. Sanchez★C
1-44110001
L. JimenezL. Jimenez3B
0-11000000
N. LukesN. LukesRF
1-22113100
SPRINT27.148
Team13-38389139247
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. BerriosJ. Berrios★SP
4.1652032
B. LittleB. LittleRP
0.2000010
M. FluhartyM. FluhartyRP
1.0100030
Y. RodriguezY. RodriguezRP
0.1332200
B. FisherB. FisherRP
0.2000020
S. DominguezS. DominguezRP
1.0000020
J. HoffmanJ. HoffmanRP
1.0000010
Team9.010842122
BAL

BAL

50-59

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. HollidayJ. Holliday★2B
2-55220000
J. WestburgJ. Westburg★3B
2-55222102
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
2-55221000
SPRINT28.175
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
0-44002001
SPRINT26.632
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
1-44112113
SPRINT26.735
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
0-33001012
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
2-44020001
D. CarlsonD. Carlson★LF
0-33000001
A. JacksonA. Jackson★C
1-33110000
R. LaureanoR. LaureanoLF
0-11000001
T. O'NeillT. O'NeillRF
0-11000001
Team10-383881082212
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. KremerD. Kremer★SP
5.0633251
G. WolframG. WolframRP
1.0111110
Y. CanoY. CanoRP
0.2455001
K. StrowdK. StrowdRP
1.1200100
A. KittredgeA. KittredgeRP
1.0000010
Team9.01399472

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TOR

  • J. Berrios
    73 pitches·21% CSW
    • SV
      32%·81.7 mph·27% whiff
    • SI
      25%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      19%·83.8 mph·40% whiff
    • FC
      12%·88.9 mph·13% whiff
    • FF
      12%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Rodriguez
    24 pitches·8% CSW
    • SL
      46%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      38%·95.4 mph·25% whiff
    • FS
      17%·89.5 mph·— whiff
  • M. Fluharty
    19 pitches·37% CSW
    • FC
      53%·91.0 mph·43% whiff
    • ST
      47%·81.8 mph·50% whiff
  • B. Fisher
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • CU
      40%·84.3 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      33%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·97.2 mph·33% whiff
  • J. Hoffman
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • FS
      40%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·87.5 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      27%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Dominguez
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • FF
      38%·98.2 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      31%·85.1 mph·— whiff
    • FS
      15%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      15%·97.8 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Little
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • FC
      33%·92.7 mph·50% whiff
    • KC
      33%·87.0 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      33%·92.8 mph·50% whiff

BAL

  • D. Kremer
    87 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      33%·93.1 mph·7% whiff
    • FC
      32%·86.9 mph·20% whiff
    • FS
      15%·80.7 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      14%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·77.0 mph·— whiff
  • G. Wolfram
    23 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      70%·96.2 mph·29% whiff
    • CU
      17%·83.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Strowd
    23 pitches·17% CSW
    • FC
      61%·90.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      22%·95.3 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      9%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      9%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Cano
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      45%·95.4 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      30%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Kittredge
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      38%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      38%·88.7 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      25%·94.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

13

Hits

10

9

Runs

8

2

Errors

0

Current series

BAL wins series 4-2

Apr 11TORTOR0@BALBAL0
Apr 12TORTOR4@BALBAL5
Apr 13TORTOR7@BALBAL6
Jul 28TORTOR4@BALBAL11
Jul 29TORTOR4@BALBAL16
Jul 29TORTOR2@BALBAL3
Jul 30TORTOR9@BALBAL8today

Season series

BAL leads series 6-4

Mar 27BALBAL12@TORTOR2
Mar 28BALBAL2@TORTOR8
Mar 29BALBAL9@TORTOR5
Mar 30BALBAL1@TORTOR3
Apr 11TORTOR0@BALBAL0
Apr 12TORTOR4@BALBAL5
Apr 13TORTOR7@BALBAL6
Jul 28TORTOR4@BALBAL11
Jul 29TORTOR4@BALBAL16
Jul 29TORTOR2@BALBAL3
Jul 30TORTOR9@BALBAL8today
Sep 12BALBAL1@TORTOR6
Sep 13BALBAL4@TORTOR5
Sep 14BALBAL2@TORTOR11

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 28pp · Bottom 5th Inning

TORTOR
N. Lukes

N. Lukes

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

J. Berrios

J. Berrios

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 6 H

BALBAL
J. Westburg

J. Westburg

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

D. Kremer

D. Kremer

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

TOR beat BAL 9-8. Jackson's play in the bottom 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (28pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

BAL vs TOR

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BALBottom 5th Inning · 3-3
+28pp→ 65% WP

Jackson · doubled to left.

TORTop 7th Inning · 6-5
+21pp→ 69% WP

Bichette · singled to center, Loperfido scored and Clement scored.

TORTop 7th Inning · 9-5
+26pp→ 94% WP

Lukes · homered to right (383 feet), Bichette scored and Barger scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TOR0200115009
BAL3000203008

Period scoring

TOR won 3 · BAL won 2

0
3

Inn 1

O'Hearn 2

2
0

Inn 2

Straw 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
2

Inn 5

Jr. 1

Westburg 2

1
0

Inn 6

Straw 1

5
3

Inn 7

Lukes 3

Henderson 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

TOR
BAL

Play-by-play · 637 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TOR 9·BAL 8

  2. B9

    ·

    TOR 9·BAL 8

  3. B9

    O'Hearn struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TOR 9·BAL 8

    −6pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TOR 9·BAL 8

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    TOR 9·BAL 8

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    TOR 9·BAL 8

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 9·BAL 8

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 9·BAL 8

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TOR 9·BAL 8

  10. B9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Ryan O'Hearn

    ·

    TOR 9·BAL 8

  11. B9

    ·

    TOR 9·BAL 8

  12. B9

    Rutschman flied out to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TOR 9·BAL 8

    −9pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 9·BAL 8

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TOR 9·BAL 8

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 9·BAL 8

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TOR 9·BAL 8

  17. B9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Adley Rutschman

    ·

    TOR 9·BAL 8

  18. B9

    ·

    TOR 9·BAL 8

  19. B9

    Henderson grounded out to first.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    TOR 9·BAL 8

    −9pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TOR 9·BAL 8

  21. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TOR 9·BAL 8

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    TOR 9·BAL 8

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TOR 9·BAL 8

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TOR 9·BAL 8

  25. B9

    Jeff Hoffman pitches to Gunnar Henderson

    ·

    TOR 9·BAL 8

  26. B9

    Hoffman relieved Domínguez

    ·

    TOR 9·BAL 8

  27. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    TOR 9·BAL 8

  28. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    TOR 9·BAL 8

  29. T9

    ·

    TOR 9·BAL 8

  30. T9

    Lukes grounded out to first.

    ·

    TOR 9·BAL 8

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

9

Runs

8

13

Hits

10

2

Errors

0

22

TB

18

2

HR

2

4

BB

2

7

K

12

20

LOB

13

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 11 players in cohort
  • Joey LoperfidoHOU · LF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Colton CowserBAL · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

BAL vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Trey YesavageTOR
    5.8± 2.2low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low

Hits

  • Nathan LukesTOR
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Ernie ClementTOR
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Ernie ClementTOR
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.8± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Jesus SanchezTOR
    0.7± 1.2high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.6± 1.9high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Chris BassittBAL
    2.7± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.5%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    46.0%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    46.0%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    46.7%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.