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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2PIT
LAD

LAD

78-60

7
9
PIT

PIT

62-77

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
14,330 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

LAD 7 · PIT 9 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD0121002017
PIT400003119

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

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Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 70-49
62%Last 30 · 333-208
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Sep 2·Final/SeriesPIT wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates held off Los Angeles Dodgers, 9–7.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAD · top performer

LAD
Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani

SP

1.800OPS

5-3

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

PIT · top performer

PIT
Andrew McCutchen

Andrew McCutchen

DH

1.250OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAD78-60
7
9
PIT62-77
LAD78-60·PIT62-77
LAD

LAD

78-60

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
3-55132100
SPRINT2744
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
2-55021000
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
0-55200000
W. SmithW. Smith★C
3-55131000
SPRINT2744
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
2-44021001
SPRINT28.381
M. ConfortoM. Conforto★RF
0-33000012
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
1-44111100
SPRINT28.175
A. FreelandA. Freeland★2B
0-44000003
M. RojasM. Rojas★SS
1-33110010
Team12-38387126226
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. KershawC. Kershaw★SP
5.0444430
E. HenriquezE. HenriquezRP
0.1133200
B. TreinenB. TreinenRP
0.2100020
M. KopechM. KopechRP
0.1111110
A. BandaA. BandaRP
0.2000000
K. YatesK. YatesRP
1.0111110
Team8.0899870
PIT

PIT

62-77

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. TrioloJ. Triolo★3B
2-44222010
SPRINT28.483
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
1-33111021
SPRINT28.586
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
0-33100021
T. PhamT. Pham★LF
2-44222000
A. McCutchenA. McCutchen★DH
1-22111021
SPRINT27.662
A. CanarioA. Canario★LF
0-11001001
N. YorkeN. Yorke★3B
1-22010000
H. DavisH. Davis★C
1-44111000
SPRINT27.765
C. DevanneyC. Devanney★SS
0-44000003
O. CruzO. CruzCF
0-11001010
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz1B
0-22100000
Team8-3030989087
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. MlodzinskiC. Mlodzinski★SP
2.0211110
B. ChandlerB. ChandlerSP
4.0633032
I. MattsonI. MattsonRP
1.0322000
D. MoretaD. MoretaRP
1.0000020
D. SantanaD. SantanaRP
1.0111100
Team9.01277262

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAD

  • C. Kershaw
    83 pitches·23% CSW
    • SL
      47%·85.9 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      30%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      18%·72.0 mph·29% whiff
    • FS
      5%·82.2 mph·100% whiff
  • E. Henriquez
    21 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      48%·100.6 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      24%·89.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      14%·95.5 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      14%·99.6 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Yates
    20 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      60%·91.3 mph·17% whiff
    • FS
      40%·85.5 mph·33% whiff
  • M. Kopech
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      62%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      38%·93.3 mph·50% whiff
  • B. Treinen
    11 pitches·45% CSW
    • ST
      64%·84.2 mph·75% whiff
    • SI
      36%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Banda
    6 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      83%·85.3 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      17%·97.0 mph·0% whiff

PIT

  • B. Chandler
    65 pitches·34% CSW
    • FF
      55%·98.4 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      25%·88.6 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      15%·91.0 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      5%·86.4 mph·— whiff
  • C. Mlodzinski
    50 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      28%·95.9 mph·10% whiff
    • FS
      26%·87.3 mph·29% whiff
    • CU
      24%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      2%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
  • I. Mattson
    23 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      74%·95.2 mph·9% whiff
    • SL
      26%·88.1 mph·50% whiff
  • D. Santana
    14 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      43%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      21%·87.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      14%·90.6 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      14%·94.3 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      7%·88.3 mph·— whiff
  • D. Moreta
    13 pitches·62% CSW
    • SL
      54%·83.8 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      46%·95.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

8

7

Runs

9

0

Errors

1

Current series

PIT wins series 3-0

Sep 2LADLAD7@PITPIT9today
Sep 3LADLAD0@PITPIT3
Sep 4LADLAD3@PITPIT5

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 26PITPIT3@LADLAD0
Apr 27PITPIT4@LADLAD8
Apr 27PITPIT2@LADLAD9
Sep 2LADLAD7@PITPIT9today
Sep 3LADLAD0@PITPIT3
Sep 4LADLAD3@PITPIT5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ PIT

Biggest swing: 21pp · Bottom 6th Inning

LADLAD
S. Ohtani

S. Ohtani

SP

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.800 OPS

C. Kershaw

C. Kershaw

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 4 H · 4 BB

PITPIT
A. McCutchen

A. McCutchen

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1 R · 1.250 OPS

B. Chandler

B. Chandler

SP

Top reliever

4.0 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 6 H

How it ended

PIT beat LAD 9-7. Triolo's play in the bottom 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Win probability

PIT vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+16pp→ 76% WP

Pham · doubled to right, Triolo scored and N. Gonzales scored, Reynolds to third.

LADTop 4th Inning · 4-4
+14pp→ 60% WP

Pages · homered to left center (418 feet).

PITBottom 6th Inning · 4-7
+21pp→ 89% WP

Triolo · doubled to center, Davis scored and Horwitz scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD0121002017
PIT40000311—9

Period scoring

LAD won 4 · PIT won 3

0
4

Inn 1

Pham 2

1
0

Inn 2

Pages 1

2
0

Inn 3

Ohtani 1

1
0

Inn 4

Pages 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
3

Inn 6

Triolo 2

2
1

Inn 7

Betts 1

Cruz 1

0
1

Inn 8

Gonzales 1

1

Inn 9

Ohtani 1

LAD
PIT

Play-by-play · 607 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    LAD 7·PIT 9

  2. T9

    Smith flied out to right.

    · ·

    LAD 7·PIT 9

    +5pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 7·PIT 9

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 7·PIT 9

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 7·PIT 9

  6. T9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Will Smith

    · ·

    LAD 7·PIT 9

  7. T9

    · ·

    LAD 7·PIT 9

  8. T9

    Freeman lined out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAD 7·PIT 9

    +7pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 7·PIT 9

  10. T9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Freddie Freeman

    · ·

    LAD 7·PIT 9

  11. T9

    · ·

    LAD 7·PIT 9

  12. T9

    Betts flied out to left.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAD 7·PIT 9

    +8pp

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 7·PIT 9

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 7·PIT 9

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 7·PIT 9

  16. T9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Mookie Betts

    · ·

    LAD 7·PIT 9

  17. T9

    ·

    LAD 7·PIT 9

  18. T9

    Ohtani doubled to left, Kim scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAD 7·PIT 9

    −11pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 7·PIT 9

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 6·PIT 9

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    LAD 6·PIT 9

  22. T9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Shohei Ohtani

    · ·

    LAD 7·PIT 9

  23. T9

    Kim ran for Rojas

    ·

    LAD 6·PIT 9

  24. T9

    ·

    LAD 6·PIT 9

  25. T9

    Rojas walked.

    ·

    LAD 6·PIT 9

    −5pp

  26. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    ·

    LAD 6·PIT 9

  27. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    LAD 6·PIT 9

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAD 6·PIT 9

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 6·PIT 9

  30. T9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Miguel Rojas

    ·

    LAD 6·PIT 9

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

7

Runs

9

12

Hits

8

0

Errors

1

20

TB

11

2

HR

0

2

BB

8

6

K

7

14

LOB

12

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 19, 25sim 95
    1013
    30(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 13, 25sim 93
    196
    3(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 93
    1212
    7(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 93
    139
    11(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 25, 25sim 93
    223
    21(H)13
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 19, 25sim 93
    211
    30(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Jared TrioloPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.483
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

PIT vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low

Hits

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.3± 2.6high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.2± 3.0high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    0.9± 1.0high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    2.7± 1.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.4%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    47.1%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    46.9%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    47.5%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.