MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3CIN

CIN

66-60

LAA

60-65

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California

25,421 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.3%

ensemble · CIN favored

Elo Static
49.6%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
45.6%
P(LAA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
49.6%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.87 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAA vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 64 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
7.0± 4.0low
Chase BurnsCIN
6.9± 3.1low
Jose SorianoLAA
5.8± 2.5low

Hits

Blake DunnCIN
1.2± 0.9high
Wade MecklerLAA
1.1± 1.4medium
JJ BledayCIN
1.0± 0.6high

Total bases

JJ BledayCIN
1.9± 1.6high
Wade MecklerLAA
1.9± 2.3medium
Zach NetoLAA
1.9± 1.8high

RBIs

Jose SiriLAA
0.8± 1.5medium
Wade MecklerLAA
0.8± 1.6medium
Trey ManciniLAA
0.7± 0.8low

Earned runs

Grayson RodriguezLAA
4.2± 3.8low
Nick LodoloCIN
3.3± 1.8low
Chris PaddackCIN
3.2± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CIN

league avg

LAA

.708

OPS

.715

.705

.314

OBP

.319

.317

4.24

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.46

4.76

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.65

1.47

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.43

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

CIN 4 · LAA 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CIN +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CIN	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	4
LAA	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
T. FriedlCF	.267	4	1	1	0	0	1	0
G. LuxLF	.281	5	1	2	2	1	0	1
E. De La CruzSS	.275	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
A. HaysLF	.262	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
N. MarteRF	.299	5	0	2	0	0	0	2
S. SteerLF	.240	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. TrevinoC	.256	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
K. Hayes3B	.236	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. McLain2B	.220	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
Team		36	4	11	4	1	3	8

Player

AVG

RBI

.267

.281

.275

.262

.299

.240

.256

.236

.220

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
B. SingerSP	6.0	6	1	1	1	4	88
C. PhillipsRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	19
L. MeyRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	0	24
S. BarlowRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	25
Team	9.0	8	1	1	4	10	156

Player

6.0

1.0

0.2

1.1

Team

9.0

156

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
Z. NetoSS	.269	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
N. Schanuel1B	.272	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
M. TroutCF	.235	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
T. WardLF	.237	3	0	1	1	0	1	0
Y. Moncada3B	.238	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. AdellRF	.228	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
C. Moore2B	.189	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. O'HoppeC	.227	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. TeodosioLF	.256	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Rengifo3B	.250	0	0	0	0	0	2	0
Team		33	1	8	1	0	4	10

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
V. MederosSP	5.0	9	3	3	3	3	95
A. ChafinRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
J. FerminRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	18
C. FulmerRP	2.0	1	1	1	0	2	27
Team	9.0	11	4	4	3	8	154

Team

CIN

LAA

3 sub-models, blended.

LAA vs CIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

LAA vs CIN.

3 sub-models, blended.