HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 8
  • MLBBot 3
    COL 0@ATH 0
    +9.9ppmedium
  • MLBTop 3
    CHC 0@SF 0
    -16.7pphigh
  • MLBBot 7
    STL 7@MIN 4
    -43.6pplow
  • MLBBot 7
    ATL 3@NYM 7
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBTop 5
    TB 0@LAA 4
    +62.6pplow
  • MLBTop 7
    SEA 8@WSH 1
    -47.4pplow
  • WNBA3:11 - 2nd
    GS 31@SEA 32
    +10.5pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5NYM
SD

SD

83-70

1
6
NYM

NYM

79-74

Citi Field · Queens, New York
38,127 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SD

SD

league avg

NYM

NYM

.650

OPS

.715

▶

.662

.291

OBP

.319

.292

3.79

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.04

3.95

Team ERA

4.16

▶

3.88

1.29

WHIP

1.31

1.28

8.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

SD 1 · NYM 6 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SD +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SD0010000001
NYM104000106

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

66%Last 7 · 69-36
61%Last 30 · 307-194
Receipts →
MLB·Thu, Sep 18·Final/SeriesNYM win series 2-1

Recap · MLB

New York Mets held off San Diego Padres, 6–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1F. LindorNYM+31.3pp
  2. 2P. AlonsoNYM+27.8pp
  3. 3R. VasquezSD−22.7pp

SD · top performer

SD
Fernando Tatis Jr.

Fernando Tatis Jr.

RF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Pete Alonso

Pete Alonso

1B

2.667OPS

2-1

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · San Diego Padres at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.RF
.2664120000
L. Arraez2B
.2873011000
M. Machado3B
.2794010002
J. MerrillCF
.2604000002
R. LaureanoLF
.2794000002
G. Sheets1B
.2593010001
R. O'HearnRF
.2252000002
J. Cronenworth2B
.2513010001
F. FerminC
.2623000000
- J. Iglesias2B
.2231000000
Team311610010

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
R. VasquezSP
2.14441348
W. PeraltaRP
1.21111129
K. HartRP
1.01001226
Y. MatsuiRP
1.00000010
R. MarinaccioRP
1.01111226
B. RodriguezRP
1.00000114
Team8.076649153

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorSS
.2653210010
J. SotoLF
.2634021000
P. Alonso1B
.2702212111
B. NimmoRF
.2613113112
M. Vientos1B
.2374010003
J. McNeil2B
.2513000010
B. Baty3B
.2574000002
L. TorrensC
.2224000001
C. MullinsCF
.1913110000
- L. AcunaCF
.2340000000
Team30676249

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
J. TongSP
5.04100882
T. RogersRP
1.0000007
B. RaleyRP
1.00000015
G. SotoRP
1.02000012
E. DiazRP
1.00000215
Team9.0610010131

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SD

  • R. Vasquez
    48 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      29%·95.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      23%·95.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      19%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      10%·82.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      4%·85.4 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      4%·84.0 mph·0% whiff
  • W. Peralta
    29 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      41%·93.0 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      34%·87.7 mph·57% whiff
    • CH
      24%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Hart
    26 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      31%·94.1 mph·67% whiff
    • FS
      27%·85.3 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      23%·83.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      12%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      8%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Marinaccio
    26 pitches·12% CSW
    • FF
      42%·94.2 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      31%·82.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      15%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      12%·82.9 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Rodriguez
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • CH
      57%·87.6 mph·43% whiff
    • FF
      29%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      14%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Matsui
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      60%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      30%·83.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      10%·81.1 mph·— whiff

NYM

  • J. Tong
    82 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      67%·94.4 mph·26% whiff
    • CU
      18%·76.6 mph·11% whiff
    • CH
      12%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      2%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Raley
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • FC
      33%·88.0 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      33%·82.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      27%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·84.5 mph·— whiff
  • E. Diaz
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      53%·97.2 mph·60% whiff
    • SL
      47%·89.4 mph·33% whiff
  • G. Soto
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      75%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      25%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Rogers
    7 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      86%·84.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·72.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

7

1

Runs

6

0

Errors

1

Current series

NYM win series 2-1

Sep 16SDSD3@NYMNYM8
Sep 17SDSD7@NYMNYM4
Sep 18SDSD1@NYMNYM6today

Season series

SD wins series 4-2

Jul 29NYMNYM6@SDSD7
Jul 30NYMNYM1@SDSD7
Jul 30NYMNYM0@SDSD5
Sep 16SDSD3@NYMNYM8
Sep 17SDSD7@NYMNYM4
Sep 18SDSD1@NYMNYM6today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSD ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 18pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

SDSD
F. Tatis Jr.

F. Tatis Jr.

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

R. Vasquez

R. Vasquez

SP

Starting pitcher

2.1 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

NYMNYM
P. Alonso

P. Alonso

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.667 OPS

J. Tong

J. Tong

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 4 H

How it ended

NYM beat SD 6-1. Nimmo's play in the bottom 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

NYM vs SD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYMBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+11pp→ 56% WP

Alonso · homered to center (445 feet).

NYMBottom 3rd Inning · 1-1
+10pp→ 66% WP

Lindor · singled to right, Lindor to second, Mullins to third.

NYMBottom 3rd Inning · 1-5
+18pp→ 88% WP

Nimmo · homered to right center (389 feet), Lindor scored and Alonso scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SD0010000001
NYM10400010—6

Period scoring

SD won 0 · NYM won 3

0
1

Inn 1

Alonso 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
4

Inn 3

Arraez 1

Nimmo 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Alonso 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

SD
NYM

Play-by-play · 538 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    SD 1·NYM 6

  2. T9

    Laureano popped out to third.

    ·

    SD 1·NYM 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 1·NYM 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 1·NYM 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SD 1·NYM 6

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SD 1·NYM 6

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 1·NYM 6

  8. T9

    Edwin Diaz pitches to Ramon Laureano

    ·

    SD 1·NYM 6

  9. T9

    ·

    SD 1·NYM 6

  10. T9

    Merrill struck out swinging.

    ·

    SD 1·NYM 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SD 1·NYM 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SD 1·NYM 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    SD 1·NYM 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 1·NYM 6

  15. T9

    Edwin Diaz pitches to Jackson Merrill

    ·

    SD 1·NYM 6

  16. T9

    ·

    SD 1·NYM 6

  17. T9

    Machado struck out swinging.

    ·

    SD 1·NYM 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SD 1·NYM 6

  19. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    SD 1·NYM 6

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    SD 1·NYM 6

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SD 1·NYM 6

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SD 1·NYM 6

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 1·NYM 6

  24. T9

    Edwin Diaz pitches to Manny Machado

    ·

    SD 1·NYM 6

  25. T9

    Díaz relieved G. Soto

    · ·

    SD 1·NYM 6

  26. T9

    Acuña at second base.

    SD 1·NYM 6

  27. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    SD 1·NYM 6

  28. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    SD 1·NYM 6

  29. B8

    ·

    SD 1·NYM 6

  30. B8

    Torrens grounded out to third.

    ·

    SD 1·NYM 6

Team stats

SD

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

1

Runs

6

6

Hits

7

0

Errors

1

6

TB

14

0

HR

2

0

BB

4

10

K

9

6

LOB

12

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Luisangel AcunaCHW · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Ramon LaureanoSD · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

NYM vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.2± 2.8low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low
  • Christian ScottNYM
    5.2± 3.0low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Carson BengeNYM
    1.1± 1.5high
  • A.J. EwingNYM
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Carson BengeNYM
    2.1± 3.6high
  • Jared YoungNYM
    1.8± 2.1high
  • Marcus SemienNYM
    1.7± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Samad TaylorSD
    1.0± 1.6low
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.3± 2.8low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.6± 3.7low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    2.6± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

44.2%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    49.6%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.1%

    P(NYM win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.9%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.47 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

84% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.