HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 8
  • MLBBot 3
    COL 0@ATH 0
    +9.9ppmedium
  • MLBTop 3
    CHC 0@SF 0
    -16.7pphigh
  • MLBBot 7
    STL 7@MIN 4
    -43.6pplow
  • MLBBot 7
    ATL 3@NYM 7
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBBot 8
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBTop 5
    TB 0@LAA 4
    +62.6pplow
  • MLBTop 7
    SEA 8@WSH 1
    -47.4pplow
  • WNBA2:55 - 2nd
    GS 33@SEA 32
    +4.1pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3CIN
NYM

NYM

76-66

3
6
CIN

CIN

71-71

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio
26,782 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYM

NYM

league avg

CIN

CIN

.662

OPS

.715

▶

.708

.292

OBP

.319

▶

.314

4.04

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.24

3.88

Team ERA

◀

4.16

4.74

1.28

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.47

9.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

NYM 3 · CIN 6 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CIN +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYM0010001013
CIN021100206

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

66%Last 7 · 69-36
61%Last 30 · 307-194
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Sep 6·Final/SeriesCIN wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Cincinnati Reds held off New York Mets, 6–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1S. SteerCIN+24.1pp
  2. 2B. SingerCIN+16.9pp
  3. 3J. SotoNYM−16.8pp

NYM · top performer

NYM
Jared Young

Jared Young

1B

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

CIN · top performer

CIN
Matt McLain

Matt McLain

2B

5.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorSS
.2704130010
J. SotoLF
.2634020011
B. NimmoRF
.2653001012
P. Alonso1B
.2694010002
J. McNeil2B
.2654010000
M. Vientos1B
.2433000011
B. Baty3B
.2514010002
L. TorrensC
.2252000000
C. MullinsCF
.1823100012
- J. Young1B
.1901111100
- F. AlvarezC
.2631000001
Team333921511

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
J. TongSP
6.03444696
R. StanekRP
0.13221016
K. HergetRP
1.20001122
Team8.066667134

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlCF
.2664011001
N. MarteRF
.2853000013
E. De La CruzSS
.2673001010
A. HaysLF
.2624111101
G. LuxLF
.2734000001
S. SteerLF
.2392210020
S. Stewart1B
.2503112100
J. TrevinoC
.2473110001
M. McLain2B
.2301111120
- K. Hayes3B
.2761000000
Team28666367

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
B. SingerSP
6.04114599
S. BarlowRP
1.01111121
T. SantillanRP
1.02000213
E. PaganRP
1.02110318
Team9.0933511151

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYM

  • J. Tong
    96 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      54%·96.4 mph·24% whiff
    • CH
      29%·87.4 mph·45% whiff
    • CU
      11%·78.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      5%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Herget
    22 pitches·9% CSW
    • FF
      55%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      36%·81.1 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      9%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Stanek
    16 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      63%·98.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·88.6 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      13%·88.3 mph·0% whiff

CIN

  • B. Singer
    99 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      42%·92.0 mph·7% whiff
    • SL
      23%·82.6 mph·22% whiff
    • ST
      23%·82.1 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      7%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      4%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Barlow
    21 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      29%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      24%·81.5 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      19%·78.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      19%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Pagan
    18 pitches·39% CSW
    • FF
      78%·96.2 mph·40% whiff
    • FC
      11%·87.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      11%·83.8 mph·— whiff
  • T. Santillan
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • SV
      54%·86.5 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      46%·95.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

6

3

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Current series

CIN wins series 2-1

Sep 5NYMNYM5@CINCIN4
Sep 6NYMNYM3@CINCIN6today
Sep 7NYMNYM2@CINCIN3

Season series

CIN leads series 3-2

Jul 18CINCIN8@NYMNYM4
Jul 19CINCIN5@NYMNYM2
Jul 20CINCIN2@NYMNYM3
Sep 5NYMNYM5@CINCIN4
Sep 6NYMNYM3@CINCIN6today
Sep 7NYMNYM2@CINCIN3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYM ↔ CIN

Biggest swing: 18pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

NYMNYM
J. Young

J. Young

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

J. Tong

J. Tong

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 4 ER · 3 H · 4 BB

CINCIN
M. McLain

M. McLain

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

B. Singer

B. Singer

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 4 BB

How it ended

CIN beat NYM 6-3. Stewart's play in the bottom 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Win probability

CIN vs NYM

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CINTop 1st Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 66% WP

J. Soto · struck out looking.

CINBottom 2nd Inning · 0-2
+18pp→ 80% WP

Stewart · homered to center (412 feet), Steer scored.

CINBottom 3rd Inning · 1-3
+8pp→ 83% WP

McLain · homered to center (390 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYM0010001013
CIN02110020—6

Period scoring

NYM won 0 · CIN won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
2

Inn 2

Stewart 2

1
1

Inn 3

Nimmo 1

McLain 1

0
1

Inn 4

Hays 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
2

Inn 7

Young 1

Friedl 1

0
0

Inn 8

1

Inn 9

Nimmo 1

NYM
CIN

Play-by-play · 561 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    NYM 3·CIN 6

  2. T9

    Alonso struck out swinging.

    · ·

    NYM 3·CIN 6

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 3·CIN 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 3·CIN 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 3·CIN 6

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    NYM 3·CIN 6

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 3·CIN 6

  8. T9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Pete Alonso

    · ·

    NYM 3·CIN 6

  9. T9

    · ·

    NYM 3·CIN 6

  10. T9

    Nimmo struck out swinging.

    · ·

    NYM 3·CIN 6

    +3pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 3·CIN 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 3·CIN 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    NYM 3·CIN 6

  14. T9

    Lindor scored on Pagán wild pitch, J. Soto to second on wild pitch by Pagán.

    · ·

    NYM 3·CIN 6

  15. T9

    Lindor scored on Pagán wild pitch, J. Soto to second on wild pitch by Pagán.

    · ·

    NYM 3·CIN 6

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYM 2·CIN 6

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 2·CIN 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 2·CIN 6

  19. T9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Brandon Nimmo

    · ·

    NYM 3·CIN 6

  20. T9

    · ·

    NYM 2·CIN 6

  21. T9

    J. Soto singled to center, Lindor to third.

    · ·

    NYM 2·CIN 6

    −3pp

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 2·CIN 6

  23. T9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Juan Soto

    · ·

    NYM 2·CIN 6

  24. T9

    ·

    NYM 2·CIN 6

  25. T9

    Lindor doubled to right.

    ·

    NYM 2·CIN 6

    −1pp

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 2·CIN 6

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 2·CIN 6

  28. T9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Francisco Lindor

    ·

    NYM 2·CIN 6

  29. T9

    ·

    NYM 2·CIN 6

  30. T9

    Mullins struck out swinging.

    ·

    NYM 2·CIN 6

    +0.8pp

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

CIN

Home

3

Runs

6

9

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

16

TB

15

1

HR

3

5

BB

6

11

K

7

13

LOB

11

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Noelvi MarteCIN · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Elly De La CruzCIN · SS
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

CIN vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.9± 3.1low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.2± 2.8low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Carson BengeNYM
    1.1± 1.5high
  • JJ BledayCIN
    1.0± 0.6high

Total bases

  • Carson BengeNYM
    2.1± 3.6high
  • JJ BledayCIN
    1.9± 1.6high
  • Jared YoungNYM
    1.8± 2.1high

RBIs

  • JJ BledayCIN
    0.6± 0.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 1.8low
  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.2± 2.6low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    2.8± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · CIN favored

  • Elo Static

    50.2%

    P(CIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.6%

    P(CIN win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.9%

    P(CIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.14 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.