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FINAL+1STL
SF

SF

72-71

3
4
STL

STL

72-72

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
29,923 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

SF 3 · STL 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked STL +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SF0000030003
STL000040004

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 68-47
62%Last 30 · 331-206
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Sep 7·Final/SeriesSTL wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

St. Louis Cardinals held off San Francisco Giants, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SF · top performer

SF
Wilmer Flores

Wilmer Flores

1B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

STL · top performer

STL
Nathan Church

Nathan Church

LF

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SF72-71
3
4
STL72-72
SF72-71·STL72-72
SF

SF

72-71

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
0-44000002
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
1-44111000
SPRINT25.716
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
0-22000022
D. SmithD. Smith★DH
1-33011002
SPRINT25.716
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
1-33011010
SPRINT28.175
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
0-44000002
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
1-44010001
SPRINT2872
D. GilbertD. Gilbert★CF
0-33100010
A. KniznerA. Knizner★C
0-11100011
W. FloresW. Flores1B
1-11010000
P. BaileyP. BaileyC
0-22000001
Team5-31313530511
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. TengK. Teng★RP
4.0344580
J. ButtoJ. ButtoRP
1.0100110
S. BivensS. BivensRP
0.2200000
M. GageM. GageRP
0.2100010
J. PegueroJ. PegueroRP
1.2100030
Team8.08446130
STL

STL

72-72

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
L. NootbaarL. Nootbaar★LF
1-44111000
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
2-44021002
SPRINT25.513
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
1-33011012
SPRINT257
M. WinnM. Winn★SS
1-33010010
T. SaggeseT. Saggese★LF
0-44000003
P. PagesP. Pages★C
0-44000002
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
1-33110012
SPRINT28.891
N. ChurchN. Church★LF
2-33120011
SPRINT28.586
J. FerminJ. Fermin★LF
0-22100021
Team8-30304830613
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. GrayS. Gray★SP
5.1233460
M. SvansonM. SvansonRP
1.2100030
J. RomeroJ. RomeroRP
1.0100120
R. O'BrienR. O'BrienRP
1.0100000
Team9.05335110

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SF

  • K. Teng
    77 pitches·34% CSW
    • ST
      40%·83.8 mph·55% whiff
    • FF
      38%·92.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      13%·91.9 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      8%·86.3 mph·75% whiff
    • CU
      1%·81.3 mph·— whiff
  • J. Peguero
    25 pitches·36% CSW
    • SI
      56%·100.1 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      24%·100.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·92.8 mph·100% whiff
  • M. Gage
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      53%·91.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      33%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·92.3 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      7%·78.0 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Butto
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      25%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·89.4 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      8%·95.4 mph·— whiff
  • S. Bivens
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      67%·96.1 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      25%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·89.7 mph·0% whiff

STL

  • S. Gray
    91 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      21%·93.0 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      20%·87.9 mph·83% whiff
    • FF
      20%·92.3 mph·43% whiff
    • CU
      16%·81.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      14%·85.8 mph·56% whiff
    • CH
      9%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Svanson
    24 pitches·42% CSW
    • SI
      38%·97.4 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      38%·88.1 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      25%·93.4 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Romero
    24 pitches·29% CSW
    • ST
      50%·81.5 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      25%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      21%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      4%·94.7 mph·— whiff
  • R. O'Brien
    11 pitches·9% CSW
    • SI
      64%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      36%·90.6 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

8

3

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

STL wins series 2-1

Sep 6SFSF8@STLSTL2
Sep 6SFSF2@STLSTL3
Sep 7SFSF3@STLSTL4today

Season series

STL leads series 2-1

Sep 6SFSF8@STLSTL2
Sep 6SFSF2@STLSTL3
Sep 7SFSF3@STLSTL4today
Sep 23STLSTL6@SFSF5
Sep 24STLSTL9@SFSF8
Sep 25STLSTL3@SFSF4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSF ↔ STL

Biggest swing: 13pp · Top 9th Inning

SFSF
W. Flores

W. Flores

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

K. Teng

K. Teng

RP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 8 K · 4 ER · 3 H · 5 BB

STLSTL
N. Church

N. Church

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

S. Gray

S. Gray

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 2 H · 4 BB

How it ended

STL beat SF 4-3.

Win probability

STL vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFTop 6th Inning · 3-4
+12pp→ 42% WP

Chapman · singled to left, Devers scored, Smith to second, Adames to third.

STLTop 8th Inning · 3-4
+10pp→ 90% WP

Lee · struck out swinging.

STLTop 9th Inning · 3-4
+13pp→ 100% WP

Bailey · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Schmitt out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SF0000030003
STL00004000—4

Period scoring

SF won 1 · STL won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
4

Inn 5

Nootbaar 1

3
0

Inn 6

Devers 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

SF
STL

Play-by-play · 563 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    SF 3·STL 4

  2. T9

    Bailey grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Schmitt out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 3·STL 4

    +13pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 3·STL 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    SF 3·STL 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SF 3·STL 4

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SF 3·STL 4

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 3·STL 4

  8. T9

    Riley O'Brien pitches to Patrick Bailey

    · ·

    SF 3·STL 4

  9. T9

    · ·

    SF 3·STL 4

  10. T9

    Gilbert lined out to right.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 3·STL 4

    +9pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 3·STL 4

  12. T9

    Riley O'Brien pitches to Drew Gilbert

    · ·

    SF 3·STL 4

  13. T9

    ·

    SF 3·STL 4

  14. T9

    Schmitt singled to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    SF 3·STL 4

    −11pp

  15. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SF 3·STL 4

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    SF 3·STL 4

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SF 3·STL 4

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    SF 3·STL 4

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SF 3·STL 4

  20. T9

    Riley O'Brien pitches to Casey Schmitt

    ·

    SF 3·STL 4

  21. T9

    O'Brien relieved Romero

    ·

    SF 3·STL 4

  22. T9

    Church in right field.

    SF 3·STL 4

  23. T9

    Scott II in center field.

    SF 3·STL 4

  24. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    SF 3·STL 4

  25. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    SF 3·STL 4

  26. B8

    · ·

    SF 3·STL 4

  27. B8

    Fermín struck out swinging.

    · ·

    SF 3·STL 4

    −0.7pp

  28. B8

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 3·STL 4

  29. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SF 3·STL 4

  30. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    SF 3·STL 4

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

STL

Home

3

Runs

4

5

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

6

TB

9

0

HR

0

5

BB

6

11

K

13

13

LOB

17

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Victor Scott IISTL · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Masyn WinnSTL · SS
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

STL vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Trevor McDonaldSF
    5.4± 2.3low
  • Logan WebbSF
    5.2± 1.6low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low

Total bases

  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high

Earned runs

  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low
  • Robbie RaySF
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.3%

ensemble · SF favored

  • Elo Static

    50.4%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.9%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.6%

    P(STL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.40 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 24, 25sim 98
    213
    15(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 3, 25sim 97
    111
    24(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 6, 25sim 96
    268
    24(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 6, 25sim 96
    262
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 7, 25sim 96
    113
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 95
    52
    29(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs