MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1ARI

CLE

64-62

ARI

62-66

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona

16,848 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

44.8%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
50.0%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
47.0%
P(ARI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.5%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.54 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ARI vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.0± 3.5low
Parker MessickCLE
5.8± 2.3low
Michael SorokaARI
5.3± 2.8low

Hits

Ketel MarteARI
1.1± 1.0high
Gabriel MorenoARI
1.0± 0.8high
Corbin CarrollARI
0.9± 0.6high

Total bases

Gabriel MorenoARI
1.9± 1.9high
Corbin CarrollARI
1.8± 1.9high
Ketel MarteARI
1.5± 1.3high

RBIs

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.ARI
0.6± 0.8high
Gabriel MorenoARI
0.5± 0.7high
Ketel MarteARI
0.5± 1.0high

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
3.6± 3.1low
Zac GallenARI
3.3± 1.9medium
Ryne NelsonARI
3.0± 2.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CLE

league avg

ARI

.685

OPS

.717

.686

.316

OBP

◀

.319

.305

3.97

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.16

3.73

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.21

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.27

9.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

CLE 2 · ARI 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ARI +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
CLE	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
ARI	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KwanCF	.277	5	1	1	0	0	0	0
D. SchneemannCF	.229	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
J. Ramirez3B	.291	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
K. Manzardo1B	.233	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. NaylorC	.179	4	0	0	1	0	0	1
G. AriasSS	.226	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
C. KayfusLF	.240	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
B. RocchioSS	.229	4	0	0	1	0	0	0
A. MartinezLF	.231	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
D. FryRF	.171	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. FestaRP	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Santana1B	.226	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. JonesRF	.214	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	2	6	2	0	2	10

Player

.277

.229

.291

.233

.179

.226

.240

.229

.231

.171

.000

.226

.214

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. MessickSP	6.2	7	1	1	1	6	83
H. GaddisRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	12
C. SmithRP	1.1	1	1	1	0	1	18
M. FestaRP	0.1	1	1	0	0	0	3
Team	9.1	9	3	2	1	7	116

Player

6.2

1.0

1.1

0.1

Team

9.1

116

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. Marte2B	.293	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
G. PerdomoSS	.287	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. CarrollRF	.253	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. Gurriel Jr.LF	.249	4	1	2	2	1	0	2
B. Alexander3B	.224	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
I. Vargas1B	.235	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Locklear1B	.203	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. ThomasCF	.252	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. McCannC	.247	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
P. SmithDH	.258	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
A. Del CastilloDH	.243	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
Team		34	3	9	3	1	1	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. PfaadtRP	7.0	5	2	2	1	5	98
J. MorilloRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	21
J. CurtissRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	2	18
A. SaalfrankRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	9
Team	10.0	6	2	2	2	10	146

Team

CLE

ARI

3 sub-models, blended.

ARI vs CLE.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ARI vs CLE.

3 sub-models, blended.