MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4NYY

NYY

67-57

STL

61-64

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri

25,365 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.9%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
47.2%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
46.7%
P(STL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
48.1%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.58 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

STL vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

Ryan WeathersNYY
6.7± 3.3low
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.1± 2.4low
Will WarrenNYY
6.0± 3.3low

Hits

Jordan WalkerSTL
1.4± 1.0high
Alec BurlesonSTL
1.3± 0.5high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Alec BurlesonSTL
2.6± 1.8high
Jordan WalkerSTL
2.4± 1.9high
Lars NootbaarSTL
2.2± 3.5low

RBIs

Alec BurlesonSTL
1.0± 1.1high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
0.9± 1.4high
Jordan WalkerSTL
0.9± 1.1high

Earned runs

Ryan WeathersNYY
2.6± 2.9low
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
2.6± 2.2low
Kyle LeahySTL
2.3± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

STL

.763

OPS

◀

.715

.331

OBP

◀

.319

.322

5.10

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.49

3.36

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.04

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.33

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

NYY 8 · STL 4 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYY	0	0	0	3	0	0	1	0	4	8
STL	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
T. GrishamCF	.247	4	1	0	0	0	1	1
B. Rice1B	.239	2	0	0	0	0	2	1
A. JudgeRF	.333	3	1	1	0	0	2	0
C. BellingerLF	.266	4	0	1	3	0	0	0
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.236	3	2	0	1	0	2	1
P. Goldschmidt1B	.280	5	1	3	1	0	0	0
J. DominguezLF	.257	5	1	2	1	0	0	0
R. McMahon3B	.250	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. CaballeroSS	.333	4	1	1	1	0	0	1
G. StantonDH	.299	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. VolpeSS	.215	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
A. WellsC	.206	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	8	9	8	0	8	5

Player

AVG

RBI

.247

.239

.333

.266

.236

.280

.257

.250

.333

.299

.215

.206

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
W. WarrenSP	4.2	6	3	1	1	3	95
D. WilliamsRP	0.1	0	0	0	1	1	11
C. DovalRP	1.1	1	1	1	0	1	18
T. HillRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
L. WeaverRP	1.2	0	0	0	1	1	18
Team	9.0	7	4	2	3	6	151

Player

4.2

0.1

1.1

1.0

1.2

Team

9.0

151

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
L. NootbaarLF	.233	4	1	3	0	0	0	1
M. WinnSS	.263	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. Burleson1B	.283	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
I. HerreraDH	.288	4	1	0	0	0	0	1
N. Gorman3B	.225	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. WalkerRF	.228	3	1	0	0	0	1	2
Y. PozoC	.263	3	1	1	1	1	1	0
T. SaggeseLF	.252	4	0	2	2	0	0	0
N. ChurchLF	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. Hampson2B	.111	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	4	7	4	1	3	6

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
M. MikolasSP	5.0	4	3	3	5	1	87
K. LeahySP	1.1	2	1	1	1	2	27
R. O'BrienRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	2	24
J. RomeroRP	0.2	1	4	1	2	0	20
J. AlcalaRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	4
Team	9.0	9	8	5	8	5	162

Team

NYY

STL

3 sub-models, blended.

STL vs NYY.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

STL vs NYY.

3 sub-models, blended.