MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6SF

54-49

ATL

44-57

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia

33,352 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

44.3%

ensemble · SF favored

Elo Static
49.6%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
48.9%
P(ATL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
48.2%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.58 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ATL vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.4± 2.1low
Spencer StriderATL
6.1± 3.1low
Landen RouppSF
5.9± 2.1low

Hits

Jung Hoo LeeSF
1.7± 1.1high
Luis ArraezSF
1.5± 0.5high
Matt ChapmanSF
1.3± 1.4high

Total bases

Matt ChapmanSF
2.5± 3.7high
Matt OlsonATL
2.4± 2.8high
Bryce EldridgeSF
2.1± 1.8high

RBIs

Matt ChapmanSF
1.3± 2.4high
Willy AdamesSF
0.8± 1.6high
Matt OlsonATL
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Adrian HouserSF
3.1± 2.7low
Robbie RaySF
2.8± 3.5low
JR RitchieATL
2.6± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

ATL

.727

OPS

.715

▶

.749

.308

OBP

.319

▶

.322

4.13

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.12

4.53

Team ERA

4.16

▶

3.27

1.40

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.17

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

SF 9 · ATL 3 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SF +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SF	0	0	0	0	3	3	3	0	0	9
ATL	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
H. RamosLF	.267	5	1	2	0	0	0	2
R. Devers1B	.243	5	2	3	4	2	0	2
W. AdamesSS	.229	4	1	0	0	0	0	1
M. Chapman3B	.243	2	2	1	2	1	1	1
M. YastrzemskiLF	.235	3	1	0	0	0	2	1
C. SchmittDH	.245	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. SmithDH	.250	4	1	1	1	0	1	1
P. BaileyC	.208	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
L. MatosRF	.173	4	1	1	1	0	0	1
B. Wisely2B	.220	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		37	9	10	9	3	4	12

Player

AVG

RBI

.267

.243

.229

.243

.235

.245

.250

.208

.173

.220

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. VerlanderSP	5.0	1	0	0	5	3	98
R. WalkerRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	15
S. HjelleRP	1.0	4	3	3	0	1	20
J. LucchesiRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
T. RogersRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16
Team	9.0	7	3	3	5	7	159

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

159

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. ProfarLF	.244	5	1	2	0	0	0	0
M. Olson1B	.268	2	1	1	0	0	3	0
D. BaldwinC	.284	5	0	1	2	0	0	2
S. MurphyC	.233	3	0	0	1	0	1	0
O. Albies2B	.221	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. Harris IICF	.214	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. Alvarez Jr.SS	.200	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. WhiteCF	.247	3	1	2	0	0	0	1
N. AllenSS	.230	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. OzunaDH	.235	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	3	7	3	0	5	7

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
S. StriderSP	5.0	5	3	3	3	7	104
D. DoddRP	0.2	3	3	3	0	0	23
D. DunningRP	0.2	1	3	3	1	0	18
A. BummerRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	11
D. LeeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
R. IglesiasRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	11
Team	9.0	10	9	9	4	12	180

Team

ATL

3 sub-models, blended.

ATL vs SF.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATL vs SF.

3 sub-models, blended.