HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 9
  • MLBBot 2
    COL 0@ATH 0
    +8.4ppmedium
  • MLBTop 2
    CHC 0@SF 0
    -12.4pphigh
  • MLBTop 9
    ARI 5@CIN 2
    -51.8pplow
  • MLBTop 7
    STL 3@MIN 4
    +41.4ppmedium
  • MLBBot 6
    ATL 3@NYM 7
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBEnd 7
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBMid 4
    TB 0@LAA 4
    +62.6pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    SEA 8@WSH 1
    -47.4pplow
  • WNBA8:05 - 2nd
    GS 26@SEA 25
    +3.4pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+7SD
SD

SD

54-45

8
1
WSH

WSH

39-60

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
21,996 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SD

SD

league avg

WSH

WSH

.650

OPS

.715

▶

.740

.291

OBP

.319

▶

.322

3.79

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.33

3.95

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.74

1.29

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

8.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SD 8 · WSH 1 (by 7)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SD +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SD5120000008
WSH0000100001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

68%Last 7 · 67-32
62%Last 30 · 305-190
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Jul 20·Final/SeriesSD wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres went into Washington Nationals and beat them, 8–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1M. GoreWSH−41.1pp
  2. 2L. ArraezSD+29.5pp
  3. 3M. MachadoSD+28.5pp

SD · top performer

SD
Xander Bogaerts

Xander Bogaerts

SS

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

4

RBI

WSH · top performer

WSH
Riley Adams

Riley Adams

C

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.RF
.2643100012
L. Arraez2B
.2845110001
M. Machado3B
.2882210030
X. BogaertsSS
.2674124110
G. Sheets1B
.2585011000
J. Iglesias2B
.2445120000
J. Cronenworth2B
.2475121000
B. JohnsonRF
.3334020002
E. DiazC
.1985122101
- T. Wade2B
.2101000000
Team398138256

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
N. PivettaSP
6.03111587
B. HoeingRP
1.01001023
A. JacobRP
2.02000132
Team9.061126142

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
C. AbramsSS
.2834000000
J. WoodRF
.2724010001
L. Garcia Jr.1B
.2604020001
N. LoweDH
.2294000001
A. CallLF
.2753000010
P. DeJong3B
.2284020001
D. LileLF
.2234000001
R. AdamsC
.1533111111
J. YoungCF
.2404000000
Team34161126

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
M. GoreSP
2.18883275
J. RutledgeRP
3.22001354
A. LaraSP
2.02001041
C. HenryRP
1.01000115
Team9.0138856185

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SD

  • N. Pivetta
    87 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      45%·94.0 mph·22% whiff
    • CU
      22%·79.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      20%·82.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      10%·91.0 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      2%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      1%·87.9 mph·— whiff
  • A. Jacob
    32 pitches·25% CSW
    • CH
      38%·73.6 mph·38% whiff
    • FF
      31%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      19%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      13%·71.9 mph·100% whiff
  • B. Hoeing
    23 pitches·4% CSW
    • FS
      48%·87.6 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      43%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      4%·92.7 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      4%·82.0 mph·— whiff

WSH

  • M. Gore
    75 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      41%·95.3 mph·19% whiff
    • CU
      31%·80.5 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      16%·86.7 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      8%·86.1 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      4%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Rutledge
    54 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      37%·95.5 mph·56% whiff
    • SL
      26%·85.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      20%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      15%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      2%·87.4 mph·— whiff
  • A. Lara
    41 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      66%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      32%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      2%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Henry
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      67%·94.1 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      33%·80.2 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

13

Hits

6

8

Runs

1

1

Errors

0

Current series

SD wins series 2-1

Jul 18SDSD7@WSHWSH2
Jul 19SDSD2@WSHWSH4
Jul 20SDSD8@WSHWSH1today

Season series

SD wins series 4-2

Jun 24WSHWSH10@SDSD6
Jun 25WSHWSH3@SDSD4
Jun 25WSHWSH0@SDSD1
Jul 18SDSD7@WSHWSH2
Jul 19SDSD2@WSHWSH4
Jul 20SDSD8@WSHWSH1today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSD ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 18pp · Top 1st Inning

SDSD
X. Bogaerts

X. Bogaerts

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

N. Pivetta

N. Pivetta

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

WSHWSH
R. Adams

R. Adams

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

J. Rutledge

J. Rutledge

RP

Top reliever

3.2 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

How it ended

SD beat WSH 8-1. Bogaerts's play in the top 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

WSH vs SD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDTop 1st Inning · 4-0
+18pp→ 84% WP

Bogaerts · homered to left (390 feet), Tatis Jr. scored, Arraez scored and Machado scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SD5120000008
WSH0000100001

Period scoring

SD won 3 · WSH won 1

5
0

Inn 1

Bogaerts 4

1
0

Inn 2

Sheets 1

2
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
1

Inn 5

Adams 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

SD
WSH

Play-by-play · 618 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SD 8·WSH 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    SD 8·WSH 1

  3. B9

    Young grounded out to pitcher.

    · ·

    SD 8·WSH 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SD 8·WSH 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SD 8·WSH 1

  6. B9

    Alek Jacob pitches to Jacob Young

    · ·

    SD 8·WSH 1

  7. B9

    · ·

    SD 8·WSH 1

  8. B9

    Adams struck out looking.

    · ·

    SD 8·WSH 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    SD 8·WSH 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SD 8·WSH 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SD 8·WSH 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SD 8·WSH 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SD 8·WSH 1

  14. B9

    Alek Jacob pitches to Riley Adams

    · ·

    SD 8·WSH 1

  15. B9

    · ·

    SD 8·WSH 1

  16. B9

    Lile flied out to center.

    · ·

    SD 8·WSH 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SD 8·WSH 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SD 8·WSH 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SD 8·WSH 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    SD 8·WSH 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    SD 8·WSH 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SD 8·WSH 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    SD 8·WSH 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SD 8·WSH 1

  25. B9

    Alek Jacob pitches to Daylen Lile

    · ·

    SD 8·WSH 1

  26. B9

    ·

    SD 8·WSH 1

  27. B9

    DeJong doubled to left.

    ·

    SD 8·WSH 1

  28. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 8·WSH 1

  29. B9

    Alek Jacob pitches to Paul DeJong

    ·

    SD 8·WSH 1

  30. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    SD 8·WSH 1

Team stats

SD

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

8

Runs

1

13

Hits

6

1

Errors

0

23

TB

10

2

HR

1

5

BB

2

6

K

6

17

LOB

17

Player projections

WSH vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cade CavalliWSH
    6.0± 4.1low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    5.4± 2.7low
  • Michael KingSD
    5.2± 2.9low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Daylen LileWSH
    1.2± 1.3high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
    2.1± 2.6high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.0± 1.9high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    1.9± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Samad TaylorSD
    1.0± 1.6low
  • Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
    1.0± 1.8high
  • Freddy FerminSD
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.3± 2.8low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.7± 3.4low
  • Yu DarvishSD
    2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

41.3%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    43.9%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    42.4%

    P(WSH win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    45.2%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.14 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 12 players in cohort
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Jake CronenworthSD · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483