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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3TB
TB

TB

67-69

7
4
WSH

WSH

53-83

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
19,436 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

TB 7 · WSH 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TB +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TB0610000007
WSH0013000004

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 62-39
62%Last 30 · 323-200
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 2, 25sim 95
    282
    20(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 21, 25sim 94
    213
    20(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 93
    214
    20(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 93
    218
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 17, 25sim 92
    159
    20(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 3, 25sim 92
    285
    20(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Aug 31·Final/SeriesTB wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Tampa Bay Rays went into Washington Nationals and beat them, 7–4.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Brandon Lowe

Brandon Lowe

2B

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

4

RBI

WSH · top performer

WSH
Daylen Lile

Daylen Lile

LF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Tampa Bay Rays at Washington Nationals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TB67-69
7
4
WSH53-83
TB67-69·WSH53-83
TB

TB

67-69

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
0-44000001
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
1-44114102
SPRINT27.148
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
0-44000000
J. LoweJ. Lowe★LF
2-44220000
SPRINT27.251
BB. Seymour★1B
1-44110002
E. PereiraE. Pereira★RF
1-33112001
SPRINT27.457
H. FeducciaH. Feduccia★C
0-44000002
T. GrayT. Gray★3B
0-33100012
C. WilliamsC. Williams★SS
1-22111011
Team6-32327671211
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
I. SeymourI. Seymour★RP
5.0441180
E. UcetaE. UcetaRP
2.0100030
M. MontgomeryM. MontgomeryRP
1.0000130
P. FairbanksP. FairbanksRP
1.0200020
Team9.07412160
WSH

WSH

53-83

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
0-33000013
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
0-44000002
R. AdamsR. Adams★C
0-33100011
A. ChaparroA. Chaparro★1B
1-44110003
D. CrewsD. Crews★CF
1-44110001
P. DeJongP. DeJong★3B
0-33000003
D. LileD. Lile★LF
2-44020001
SPRINT29.395
B. HouseB. House★3B
2-44122001
SPRINT2872
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
1-33011000
SPRINT29.496
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.1B
0-11000001
Team7-33334730216
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. LordB. Lord★RP
3.0577231
P. PoulinP. PoulinRP
2.0100010
C. BeeterC. BeeterRP
1.0000020
S. OgasawaraS. OgasawaraRP
1.0000020
J. FerrerJ. FerrerRP
1.0000010
O. RibaltaO. RibaltaRP
1.0000020
Team9.06772111

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TB

  • I. Seymour
    82 pitches·37% CSW
    • CH
      41%·84.6 mph·36% whiff
    • FF
      20%·92.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      13%·89.0 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      9%·83.8 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      7%·82.2 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      6%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      4%·75.0 mph·— whiff
  • E. Uceta
    23 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      52%·94.2 mph·60% whiff
    • CH
      39%·87.9 mph·13% whiff
    • FC
      9%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Montgomery
    21 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      76%·98.8 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      24%·89.6 mph·25% whiff
  • P. Fairbanks
    16 pitches·38% CSW
    • SL
      63%·84.8 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      31%·96.8 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      6%·94.2 mph·0% whiff

WSH

  • B. Lord
    62 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      31%·93.9 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      31%·94.1 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      19%·86.8 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      19%·86.1 mph·20% whiff
  • P. Poulin
    22 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      68%·90.3 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      14%·90.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      14%·78.4 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      5%·81.3 mph·0% whiff
  • O. Ribalta
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • FF
      58%·98.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      25%·89.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      8%·88.1 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      8%·97.1 mph·— whiff
  • C. Beeter
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      55%·97.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      45%·86.6 mph·100% whiff
  • S. Ogasawara
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      50%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      30%·73.0 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      20%·83.4 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

7

7

Runs

4

2

Errors

2

Current series

TB wins series 3-0

Aug 29TBTB4@WSHWSH1
Aug 30TBTB4@WSHWSH1
Aug 31TBTB7@WSHWSH4today

Season series

TB wins series 3-0

Aug 29TBTB4@WSHWSH1
Aug 30TBTB4@WSHWSH1
Aug 31TBTB7@WSHWSH4today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTB ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 20pp · Top 2nd Inning

TBTB
B. Lowe

B. Lowe

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

I. Seymour

I. Seymour

RP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 8 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

WSHWSH
D. Lile

D. Lile

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

B. Lord

B. Lord

RP

Starting pitcher

3.0 IP · 3 K · 7 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

TB beat WSH 7-4. B. Lowe's play in the top 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

WSH vs TB

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TBTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+9pp→ 72% WP

Pereira · reached on infield single to third, J. Lowe scored on error, B. Seymour to second, B. Seymour safe at third on throwing error by third baseman House.

TBTop 2nd Inning · 6-0
+20pp→ 93% WP

B. Lowe · homered to right (367 feet), Pereira scored, Gray scored and Williams scored.

WSHBottom 4th Inning · 7-4
+9pp→ 17% WP

House · singled to left, Chaparro scored, Crews scored, and House safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Simpson.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TB0610000007
WSH0013000004

Period scoring

TB won 1 · WSH won 1

0
0

Inn 1

6
0

Inn 2

Lowe 4

1
1

Inn 3

Pereira 1

Young 1

0
3

Inn 4

House 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

TB
WSH

Play-by-play · 527 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TB 7·WSH 4

  2. B9

    · ·

    TB 7·WSH 4

  3. B9

    House struck out swinging.

    · ·

    TB 7·WSH 4

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 7·WSH 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TB 7·WSH 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 7·WSH 4

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 7·WSH 4

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 7·WSH 4

  9. B9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Brady House

    · ·

    TB 7·WSH 4

  10. B9

    · ·

    TB 7·WSH 4

  11. B9

    Lile singled to center, Lile out stretching at second, Crews to third.

    · ·

    TB 7·WSH 4

    −2pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TB 7·WSH 4

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TB 7·WSH 4

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    TB 7·WSH 4

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 7·WSH 4

  16. B9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Daylen Lile

    · ·

    TB 7·WSH 4

  17. B9

    · ·

    TB 7·WSH 4

  18. B9

    García Jr. struck out swinging.

    · ·

    TB 7·WSH 4

    −4pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 7·WSH 4

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TB 7·WSH 4

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    TB 7·WSH 4

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    TB 7·WSH 4

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    TB 7·WSH 4

  24. B9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Luis Garcia Jr.

    · ·

    TB 7·WSH 4

  25. B9

    García Jr. hit for DeJong

    TB 7·WSH 4

  26. B9

    ·

    TB 7·WSH 4

  27. B9

    Crews singled to left.

    ·

    TB 7·WSH 4

    +4pp

  28. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TB 7·WSH 4

  29. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TB 7·WSH 4

  30. B9

    Pete Fairbanks pitches to Dylan Crews

    ·

    TB 7·WSH 4

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

7

Runs

4

6

Hits

7

2

Errors

2

12

TB

8

1

HR

0

2

BB

2

11

K

16

9

LOB

14

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 11 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

WSH vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    5.5± 3.4low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.7± 2.8high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.9± 1.5high
  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Steven MatzTB
    2.6± 2.4low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    2.3± 4.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.3%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    44.3%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    43.4%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    44.2%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.40 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.