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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1WSH
NYM

NYM

67-59

4
5
WSH

WSH

51-75

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
19,565 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

NYM 4 · WSH 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYM +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYM0000130004
WSH002210005

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
62%Last 30 · 323-202
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 19, 25sim 97
    218
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 95
    296
    9(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 21, 25sim 94
    213
    20(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 13, 25sim 94
    295
    9(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 20, 25sim 93
    258
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 93
    307
    20(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Aug 20·Final/SeriesWSH wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals held off New York Mets, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYM · top performer

NYM
Brett Baty

Brett Baty

3B

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

WSH · top performer

WSH
Josh Bell

Josh Bell

DH

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · New York Mets at Washington Nationals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYM67-59
4
5
WSH51-75
NYM67-59·WSH51-75
NYM

NYM

67-59

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
1-33110010
SPRINT26.941
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
0-33100012
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
0-11000000
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
1-44111000
SPRINT25.29
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
1-44012000
SPRINT25.920
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
1-44010000
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
1-33111110
SPRINT26.735
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
2-44020001
SPRINT27.662
L. TorrensL. Torrens★C
0-44000000
S. MarteS. MarteRF
1-33010002
Team8-3333484135
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. SengaK. Senga★SP
5.0654241
T. RogersT. RogersRP
1.0000000
G. SotoG. SotoRP
1.0100000
R. GarrettR. GarrettRP
1.0000110
Team8.0754351
WSH

WSH

51-75

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
1-33010011
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
1-44011000
SPRINT28.483
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
1-33112101
SPRINT25.18
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
0-44000001
P. DeJongP. DeJong★3B
1-44110001
D. LileD. Lile★LF
1-33010011
D. CrewsD. Crews★CF
1-33211010
D. MillasD. Millas★C
1-22011000
SPRINT27.354
R. Hassell IIIR. Hassell III★CF
0-33100000
Team7-2929575135
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. LordB. Lord★RP
5.1744241
C. HenryC. HenryRP
0.2000100
S. OgasawaraS. OgasawaraRP
1.0000010
C. BeeterC. BeeterRP
1.0000000
J. FerrerJ. FerrerRP
1.0100000
Team9.0844351

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYM

  • K. Senga
    84 pitches·29% CSW
    • FO
      29%·82.3 mph·43% whiff
    • FF
      26%·95.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      19%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      15%·80.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      2%·85.1 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      1%·67.6 mph·— whiff
  • G. Soto
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      50%·97.2 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      29%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      21%·98.5 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Garrett
    12 pitches·8% CSW
    • SI
      50%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      33%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·92.0 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      8%·85.4 mph·100% whiff
  • T. Rogers
    6 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      83%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      17%·74.1 mph·— whiff

WSH

  • B. Lord
    92 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      45%·94.6 mph·9% whiff
    • CH
      22%·86.1 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      18%·94.0 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      15%·85.7 mph·33% whiff
  • C. Henry
    20 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      35%·94.6 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      30%·81.2 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      20%·87.5 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      15%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Ogasawara
    10 pitches·50% CSW
    • CH
      40%·79.1 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      40%·71.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      10%·91.5 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      10%·80.7 mph·— whiff
  • C. Beeter
    9 pitches·44% CSW
    • SL
      67%·87.5 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      33%·96.7 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

7

4

Runs

5

1

Errors

1

Current series

WSH wins series 4-3

Apr 25NYMNYM4@WSHWSH5
Apr 26NYMNYM2@WSHWSH0
Apr 27NYMNYM7@WSHWSH8
Apr 28NYMNYM19@WSHWSH5
Aug 19NYMNYM8@WSHWSH1
Aug 20NYMNYM4@WSHWSH5today
Aug 21NYMNYM3@WSHWSH9

Season series

NYM lead series 6-3

Apr 25NYMNYM4@WSHWSH5
Apr 26NYMNYM2@WSHWSH0
Apr 27NYMNYM7@WSHWSH8
Apr 28NYMNYM19@WSHWSH5
Jun 10WSHWSH4@NYMNYM5
Jun 11WSHWSH0@NYMNYM5
Jun 12WSHWSH3@NYMNYM4
Aug 19NYMNYM8@WSHWSH1
Aug 20NYMNYM4@WSHWSH5today
Aug 21NYMNYM3@WSHWSH9
Sep 19WSHWSH6@NYMNYM12
Sep 20WSHWSH5@NYMNYM3
Sep 21WSHWSH3@NYMNYM2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYM ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 19pp · Top 9th Inning

NYMNYM
B. Baty

B. Baty

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

K. Senga

K. Senga

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

WSHWSH
J. Bell

J. Bell

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

B. Lord

B. Lord

RP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

How it ended

WSH beat NYM 5-4. Torrens's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Win probability

WSH vs NYM

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHBottom 4th Inning · 0-2
+12pp→ 78% WP

DeJong · doubled to left.

NYMTop 6th Inning · 4-5
+17pp→ 43% WP

McNeil · doubled to left, Alonso scored and J. Soto scored.

WSHTop 9th Inning · 4-5
+19pp→ 100% WP

Torrens · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Mullins out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYM0000130004
WSH00221000—5

Period scoring

NYM won 1 · WSH won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
2

Inn 3

Abrams 1

0
2

Inn 4

Crews 1

1
1

Inn 5

Baty 1

Bell 1

3
0

Inn 6

McNeil 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

NYM
WSH

Play-by-play · 507 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 5

  2. T9

    Torrens grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Mullins out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYM 4·WSH 5

    +19pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 4·WSH 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYM 4·WSH 5

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 4·WSH 5

  6. T9

    Jose Ferrer pitches to Luis Torrens

    · ·

    NYM 4·WSH 5

  7. T9

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 5

  8. T9

    Mullins reached on infield single to pitcher.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 5

    −8pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 5

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 5

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 5

  12. T9

    Jose Ferrer pitches to Cedric Mullins

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 5

  13. T9

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 5

  14. T9

    Baty grounded out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 5

    +7pp

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 5

  16. T9

    Jose Ferrer pitches to Brett Baty

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 5

  17. T9

    Ferrer relieved Beeter

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 5

  18. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    NYM 4·WSH 5

  19. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    NYM 4·WSH 5

  20. B8

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 5

  21. B8

    Crews grounded into fielder's choice to second, Lile out at second.

    · ·

    NYM 4·WSH 5

  22. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 4·WSH 5

  23. B8

    Reed Garrett pitches to Dylan Crews

    · ·

    NYM 4·WSH 5

  24. B8

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 5

  25. B8

    Lile walked.

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 5

    +0.7pp

  26. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball 4

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 5

  27. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 5

  28. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 5

  29. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 5

  30. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    NYM 4·WSH 5

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

4

Runs

5

8

Hits

7

1

Errors

1

14

TB

14

1

HR

1

3

BB

3

5

K

5

15

LOB

11

Player projections

WSH vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 69 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.4%

ensemble · NYM favored

  • Elo Static

    44.7%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    43.1%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    46.5%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.39 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278