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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6WSH
NYM

NYM

67-60

3
9
WSH

WSH

52-75

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
20,127 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

NYM 3 · WSH 9 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYM +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYM1011000003
WSH000131049

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 61-39
62%Last 30 · 322-200
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 19, 25sim 97
    218
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 94
    214
    20(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 17, 25sim 94
    159
    20(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 31, 25sim 94
    307
    20(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 24, 25sim 93
    78
    3(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 92
    296
    9(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Thu, Aug 21·Final/SeriesWSH wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals held off New York Mets, 9–3. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYM · top performer

NYM
Starling Marte

Starling Marte

RF

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

WSH · top performer

WSH
Brady House

Brady House

3B

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · New York Mets at Washington Nationals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYM67-60
3
9
WSH52-75
NYM67-60·WSH52-75
NYM

NYM

67-60

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
3-55131100
SPRINT26.941
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
0-55000003
S. MarteS. Marte★RF
1-33111111
SPRINT25.411
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
0-33000011
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
1-33010010
SPRINT25.513
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
1-44110003
SPRINT26.735
T. TaylorT. Taylor★CF
0-22000010
C. MullinsC. Mullins★CF
1-33010010
SPRINT27.662
H. SengerH. Senger★C
0-33001002
J. McNeilJ. McNeil2B
0-11000001
Team7-32323732511
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. ManaeaS. Manaea★RP
4.2344180
T. RogersT. RogersRP
1.0311020
B. RaleyB. RaleyRP
1.1000030
R. StanekR. StanekRP
1.0344211
Team8.09993141
WSH

WSH

52-75

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
1-55113103
SPRINT27.457
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
0-33200012
SPRINT28.483
P. DeJongP. DeJong★3B
0-44001001
A. ChaparroA. Chaparro★1B
1-33010012
R. AdamsR. Adams★C
2-33122001
D. CrewsD. Crews★CF
0-33101012
D. LileD. Lile★LF
1-44110000
B. HouseB. House★3B
3-44231001
SPRINT2872
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
1-33111002
SPRINT29.496
Team9-32329991314
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. GoreM. Gore★SP
4.1633452
J. RutledgeJ. RutledgeRP
0.2000010
C. BeeterC. BeeterRP
1.0000000
P. PoulinP. PoulinRP
1.0000010
C. HenryC. HenryRP
0.2000110
J. FerrerJ. FerrerRP
1.1100030
Team9.07335112

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYM

  • S. Manaea
    91 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      59%·91.0 mph·23% whiff
    • ST
      37%·77.8 mph·36% whiff
    • CH
      3%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Stanek
    37 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      51%·98.4 mph·15% whiff
    • FS
      16%·88.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      16%·89.0 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      16%·84.0 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Rogers
    19 pitches·47% CSW
    • SL
      53%·74.2 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      47%·84.0 mph·43% whiff
  • B. Raley
    14 pitches·64% CSW
    • ST
      50%·80.5 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      29%·90.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      14%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·84.2 mph·100% whiff

WSH

  • M. Gore
    94 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      48%·95.4 mph·11% whiff
    • CU
      26%·82.6 mph·31% whiff
    • SL
      13%·87.6 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      11%·86.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      3%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Henry
    19 pitches·21% CSW
    • ST
      42%·81.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      37%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      16%·93.7 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      5%·86.6 mph·— whiff
  • P. Poulin
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      46%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      23%·89.4 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      23%·79.0 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      8%·81.4 mph·100% whiff
  • C. Beeter
    11 pitches·9% CSW
    • FF
      64%·96.3 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      36%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Rutledge
    7 pitches·43% CSW
    • SI
      29%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·86.1 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      14%·89.3 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      14%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      14%·84.6 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

9

3

Runs

9

0

Errors

0

Current series

WSH wins series 4-3

Apr 25NYMNYM4@WSHWSH5
Apr 26NYMNYM2@WSHWSH0
Apr 27NYMNYM7@WSHWSH8
Apr 28NYMNYM19@WSHWSH5
Aug 19NYMNYM8@WSHWSH1
Aug 20NYMNYM4@WSHWSH5
Aug 21NYMNYM3@WSHWSH9today

Season series

NYM lead series 6-4

Apr 25NYMNYM4@WSHWSH5
Apr 26NYMNYM2@WSHWSH0
Apr 27NYMNYM7@WSHWSH8
Apr 28NYMNYM19@WSHWSH5
Jun 10WSHWSH4@NYMNYM5
Jun 11WSHWSH0@NYMNYM5
Jun 12WSHWSH3@NYMNYM4
Aug 19NYMNYM8@WSHWSH1
Aug 20NYMNYM4@WSHWSH5
Aug 21NYMNYM3@WSHWSH9today
Sep 19WSHWSH6@NYMNYM12
Sep 20WSHWSH5@NYMNYM3
Sep 21WSHWSH3@NYMNYM2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYM ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 24pp · Top 6th Inning

NYMNYM
S. Marte

S. Marte

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

S. Manaea

S. Manaea

RP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 8 K · 4 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

WSHWSH
B. House

B. House

3B

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 2 R · 1.500 OPS

M. Gore

M. Gore

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 4 BB

How it ended

WSH beat NYM 9-3. Taylor's play in the top 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).

Win probability

WSH vs NYM

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYMTop 3rd Inning · 2-0
+11pp→ 71% WP

Marte · homered to center (413 feet).

WSHTop 6th Inning · 3-4
+24pp→ 65% WP

Taylor · lined out to center.

WSHBottom 6th Inning · 3-5
+13pp→ 79% WP

Young · singled to center, Lile scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYM1011000003
WSH00013104—9

Period scoring

NYM won 2 · WSH won 3

1
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Marte 1

1
1

Inn 4

Senger 1

Crews 1

0
3

Inn 5

Adams 2

0
1

Inn 6

Young 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
4

Inn 8

Wood 3

0

Inn 9

NYM
WSH

Play-by-play · 613 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    NYM 3·WSH 9

  2. T9

    J. Soto struck out swinging.

    · ·

    NYM 3·WSH 9

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 3·WSH 9

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYM 3·WSH 9

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 3·WSH 9

  6. T9

    Lindor to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    NYM 3·WSH 9

  7. T9

    Lindor to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    NYM 3·WSH 9

  8. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 3·WSH 9

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 3·WSH 9

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 3·WSH 9

  11. T9

    Jose Ferrer pitches to Juan Soto

    · ·

    NYM 3·WSH 9

  12. T9

    ·

    NYM 3·WSH 9

  13. T9

    Lindor singled to right.

    ·

    NYM 3·WSH 9

  14. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 3·WSH 9

  15. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    NYM 3·WSH 9

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    NYM 3·WSH 9

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYM 3·WSH 9

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 3·WSH 9

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 3·WSH 9

  20. T9

    Jose Ferrer pitches to Francisco Lindor

    ·

    NYM 3·WSH 9

  21. T9

    ·

    NYM 3·WSH 9

  22. T9

    Senger struck out swinging.

    ·

    NYM 3·WSH 9

  23. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 3·WSH 9

  24. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYM 3·WSH 9

  25. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYM 3·WSH 9

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 3·WSH 9

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    NYM 3·WSH 9

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYM 3·WSH 9

  29. T9

    Jose Ferrer pitches to Hayden Senger

    ·

    NYM 3·WSH 9

  30. T9

    ·

    NYM 3·WSH 9

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

3

Runs

9

7

Hits

9

0

Errors

0

13

TB

13

2

HR

1

5

BB

3

11

K

14

13

LOB

16

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 11 players in cohort
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Tyrone TaylorNYM · CF
    SPRINT28.891
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483

Player projections

WSH vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 69 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.5%

ensemble · NYM favored

  • Elo Static

    45.9%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.7%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    47.8%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.87 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.