MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3ARI

ARI

74-75

MIN

65-83

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota

21,227 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.6%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
45.1%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
45.1%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
45.4%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.14 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIN vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

Joe RyanMIN
6.1± 3.4low
Taj BradleyMIN
6.1± 3.0low
Connor PrielippMIN
5.4± 2.8low

Hits

Corbin CarrollARI
1.0± 1.0high
Geraldo PerdomoARI
1.0± 0.9high
Jordan LawlarARI
1.0± 0.8low

Total bases

Corbin CarrollARI
2.2± 2.5high
Byron BuxtonMIN
2.0± 2.1high
Kody ClemensMIN
2.0± 2.4high

RBIs

Ketel MarteARI
0.7± 1.0high
Tristan GrayMIN
0.7± 1.6high
Josh BellMIN
0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
3.6± 3.5low
Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.5± 3.9low
Ryne NelsonARI
3.4± 3.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ARI

league avg

MIN

.690

OPS

.715

▶

.708

.306

OBP

.319

▶

.316

4.26

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.54

4.23

Team ERA

◀

4.16

4.82

1.28

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.39

7.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

ARI 5 · MIN 2 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ARI +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
ARI	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	3	5
MIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
G. PerdomoSS	.286	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
K. Marte2B	.280	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
C. CarrollRF	.255	2	1	0	0	0	3	0
G. MorenoC	.292	5	1	2	1	0	0	1
A. Del CastilloDH	.236	4	1	1	0	0	1	2
B. Alexander3B	.238	5	0	2	2	0	0	1
A. ThomasCF	.247	3	1	1	2	1	0	0
T. TawaLF	.214	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. McCarthyCF	.207	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. LawlarLF	.120	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. BarrosaCF	.122	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
Team		37	5	9	5	1	5	12

Player

AVG

RBI

.286

.280

.255

.292

.236

.238

.247

.214

.207

.120

.122

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
R. NelsonSP	6.0	4	0	0	3	4	90
B. GarciaRP	0.2	2	0	0	0	1	13
R. ThompsonRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. RashiRP	1.0	3	2	2	1	2	33
J. CurtissRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	2	33
Team	10.0	10	2	2	4	9	171

Player

6.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

2.0

Team

10.0

171

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
B. BuxtonCF	.274	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
A. MartinRF	.299	4	1	2	0	0	1	0
T. LarnachLF	.252	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
L. Keaschall2B	.314	4	1	1	0	0	1	0
R. Lewis3B	.237	5	0	2	0	0	0	1
K. Clemens1B	.220	5	0	2	2	0	0	2
B. LeeSS	.237	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. PeredaC	.400	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
J. OutmanCF	.185	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. McCuskerLF	.182	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. WallnerRF	.204	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		38	2	10	2	0	4	9

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
J. RyanSP	4.0	4	2	2	2	4	93
P. OhlRP	2.0	2	0	0	1	2	35
C. LawerysonRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	2	20
K. FunderburkRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	15
C. SandsRP	1.0	2	3	2	2	2	26
Team	10.0	9	5	4	5	12	189

Team

ARI

MIN

3 sub-models, blended.

MIN vs ARI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIN vs ARI.

3 sub-models, blended.