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FINAL+2KC
KC

KC

58-59

2
0
MIN

MIN

55-61

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
22,539 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

KC 2 · MIN 0 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIN +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
KC0010000012
MIN0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 70-49
62%Last 30 · 333-208
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 9, 25sim 98
    172
    23(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 96
    282
    24(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 25, 25sim 95
    250
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 8, 25sim 95
    172
    23(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 93
    62
    28(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 93
    53
    29(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Aug 9·Final/SeriesMIN wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Kansas City Royals went into Minnesota Twins and beat them, 2–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

KC · top performer

KC
Adam Frazier

Adam Frazier

2B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MIN · top performer

MIN
Ryan Jeffers

Ryan Jeffers

C

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
KC58-59
2
0
MIN55-61
KC58-59·MIN55-61
KC

KC

58-59

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
2-44021000
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
0-44000001
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
0-44000000
S. PerezS. Perez★C
0-44000001
R. GrichukR. Grichuk★RF
1-22010011
SPRINT26.735
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
0-33000010
J. IndiaJ. India★2B
1-44011001
SPRINT27.765
N. LoftinN. Loftin★2B
0-33000010
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
2-44120000
SPRINT26.941
A. FrazierA. Frazier2B
1-11110000
SPRINT26.225
Team7-3333272034
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. CameronN. Cameron★SP
5.2600240
A. ZerpaA. ZerpaRP
0.1000010
H. HarveyH. HarveyRP
1.0200010
L. ErcegL. ErcegRP
1.0000010
C. EstevezC. EstevezRP
1.0000020
Team9.0800290
MIN

MIN

55-61

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
2-55020001
SPRINT27.867
R. JeffersR. Jeffers★C
3-44030001
SPRINT26.326
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
1-44010000
SPRINT28.688
R. LewisR. Lewis★3B
0-44000002
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
0-33000011
CC. McCusker★LF
1-33010001
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
1-44010000
SPRINT26.428
M. GasperM. Gasper★C
0-33000012
A. RodenA. Roden★LF
0-33000001
T. LarnachT. LarnachLF
0-11000000
Team8-3434080029
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. OberB. Ober★SP
6.0411140
M. TonkinM. TonkinRP
1.0000100
J. TopaJ. TopaRP
1.0100000
E. RamirezE. RamirezRP
1.0211100
Team9.0722340

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

KC

  • N. Cameron
    91 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      29%·91.6 mph·23% whiff
    • FC
      23%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      21%·81.5 mph·43% whiff
    • SL
      14%·83.6 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      13%·80.4 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Harvey
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      61%·97.1 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      22%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      17%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Erceg
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      41%·97.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      35%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      24%·90.4 mph·100% whiff
  • C. Estevez
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      56%·97.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      25%·87.1 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      19%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Zerpa
    5 pitches·40% CSW
    • SI
      60%·97.6 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      20%·97.8 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      20%·87.5 mph·0% whiff

MIN

  • B. Ober
    89 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      36%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      24%·83.2 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      18%·84.3 mph·14% whiff
    • ST
      10%·79.1 mph·29% whiff
    • CU
      7%·75.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Ramirez
    22 pitches·14% CSW
    • SI
      45%·90.2 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      41%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·85.1 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      5%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Tonkin
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      44%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      28%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      28%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Topa
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      33%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·84.4 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      20%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·92.6 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

8

2

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Current series

MIN wins series 4-2

May 24KCKC1@MINMIN3
May 24KCKC4@MINMIN5
May 25KCKC2@MINMIN1
Aug 9KCKC4@MINMIN9
Aug 9KCKC2@MINMIN0today
Aug 10KCKC3@MINMIN5

Season series

KC leads series 5-4

Apr 7MINMIN2@KCKC4
Apr 8MINMIN1@KCKC2
Apr 9MINMIN4@KCKC0
Apr 10MINMIN2@KCKC3
May 24KCKC1@MINMIN3
May 24KCKC4@MINMIN5
May 25KCKC2@MINMIN1
Aug 9KCKC4@MINMIN9
Aug 9KCKC2@MINMIN0today
Aug 10KCKC3@MINMIN5
Sep 5MINMIN1@KCKC2
Sep 6MINMIN2@KCKC11
Sep 7MINMIN5@KCKC1

Headlines · top performers

Game flowKC ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 15pp · Bottom 5th Inning

KCKC
A. Frazier

A. Frazier

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

N. Cameron

N. Cameron

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

MINMIN
R. Jeffers

R. Jeffers

C

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

B. Ober

B. Ober

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

KC beat MIN 2-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

MIN vs KC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCTop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+14pp→ 55% WP

Garcia · doubled to right, Isbel scored.

KCTop 4th Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 56% WP

Pasquantino · grounded out to second.

MINBottom 5th Inning · 1-0
+15pp→ 51% WP

Roden · hit by pitch.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
KC0010000012
MIN0000000000

Period scoring

KC won 2 · MIN won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Garcia 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

India 1

KC
MIN

Play-by-play · 564 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    KC 2·MIN 0

  2. B9

    ·

    KC 2·MIN 0

  3. B9

    Martin struck out looking.

    ·

    KC 2·MIN 0

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    KC 2·MIN 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 2·MIN 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    KC 2·MIN 0

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    KC 2·MIN 0

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    KC 2·MIN 0

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 2·MIN 0

  10. B9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Austin Martin

    ·

    KC 2·MIN 0

  11. B9

    ·

    KC 2·MIN 0

  12. B9

    Roden popped out to shortstop.

    ·

    KC 2·MIN 0

    −3pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 2·MIN 0

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    KC 2·MIN 0

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 2·MIN 0

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    KC 2·MIN 0

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    KC 2·MIN 0

  18. B9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Alan Roden

    ·

    KC 2·MIN 0

  19. B9

    ·

    KC 2·MIN 0

  20. B9

    Gasper struck out swinging.

    ·

    KC 2·MIN 0

    −5pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    KC 2·MIN 0

  22. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    KC 2·MIN 0

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    KC 2·MIN 0

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 2·MIN 0

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    KC 2·MIN 0

  26. B9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Mickey Gasper

    ·

    KC 2·MIN 0

  27. B9

    Estévez relieved Erceg

    ·

    KC 2·MIN 0

  28. B9

    Loftin in left field.

    KC 2·MIN 0

  29. B9

    Frazier at second base.

    KC 2·MIN 0

  30. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    KC 2·MIN 0

Team stats

KC

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

2

Runs

0

7

Hits

8

0

Errors

0

8

TB

8

0

HR

0

3

BB

2

4

K

9

13

LOB

21

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 14 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688

Player projections

MIN vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low
  • Zebby MatthewsMIN
    5.7± 0.8low

Hits

  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Salvador PerezKC
    0.5± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.6± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.4%

ensemble · KC favored

  • Elo Static

    50.8%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    48.3%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.8%

    P(MIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.47 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.