MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2CLE

CLE

64-60

ARI

60-66

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Chase Field · Phoenix, Arizona

16,815 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.7%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
50.0%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
47.9%
P(ARI win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.6%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.52 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ARI vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.2± 3.6low
Parker MessickCLE
6.4± 2.1low
Michael SorokaARI
5.2± 3.5low

Hits

Ketel MarteARI
1.6± 1.3high
Corbin CarrollARI
1.3± 1.2high
Gabriel MorenoARI
1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

Ketel MarteARI
3.0± 2.2high
Corbin CarrollARI
2.2± 2.3high
Travis BazzanaCLE
2.0± 2.1high

RBIs

Ketel MarteARI
1.1± 1.4high
Gabriel MorenoARI
0.8± 1.1high
Geraldo PerdomoARI
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Merrill KellyARI
3.5± 3.5low
Slade CecconiCLE
3.0± 2.5low
Zac GallenARI
2.9± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CLE 3 · ARI 1 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ARI +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CLE	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	3
ARI	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
S. Kwan★CF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT26.530
D. Schneemann★CF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
SPRINT27.457
J. Ramirez★3B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.251
K. Manzardo★1B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Naylor★C	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. Arias★SS	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Kayfus★LF	2-3	3	2	2	1	1	0	0
N. Jones★RF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Rocchio★SS	1-3	3	1	1	2	1	0	1
SPRINT27.354
D. FryRF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	5-32	32	3	5	3	2	0	4

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

1-4

0-4

1-4

0-3

0-4

0-3

2-3

0-3

1-3

0-1

Team

5-32

	Pitching
G. Williams★SP	5.1	4	0	0	1	5	0
E. SabrowskiRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. FestaRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	0
H. GaddisRP	1.1	1	0	0	1	1	0
C. SmithRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	2	0
Team	9.0	6	1	1	4	9	0

Pitching

Player

5.1

0.2

0.2

1.1

1.0

Team

9.0

	Batting
G. Perdomo★SS	2-5	5	0	2	1	0	0	1
SPRINT26.838
K. Marte★2B	1-5	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT26.225
C. Carroll★RF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
SPRINT29.496
L. Gurriel Jr.★LF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT25.818
P. Smith★1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Del Castillo★DH	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Alexander★3B	0-2	2	1	0	0	0	2	1
SPRINT28.175
A. Thomas★CF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. McCann★C	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. Locklear1B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
I. Vargas1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	6-33	33	1	6	1	0	4	9

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

G. Perdomo★SS

2-5