MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2DET

DET

85-65

MIA

70-80

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida

24,638 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

44.2%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
49.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
48.5%
P(MIA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
48.3%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.30 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIA vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 98 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
6.4± 1.9low
Jack FlahertyDET
5.6± 3.5low
Framber ValdezDET
4.6± 2.7low

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.6± 1.1high
Dillon DinglerDET
1.3± 1.6high
Gleyber TorresDET
1.3± 1.3high

Total bases

Dillon DinglerDET
2.8± 4.4high
Otto LopezMIA
2.3± 2.0high
Gleyber TorresDET
2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

Dillon DinglerDET
1.2± 1.8high
Kerry CarpenterDET
0.8± 1.0high
Gleyber TorresDET
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.3± 3.6low
Framber ValdezDET
2.8± 2.6low
Jack FlahertyDET
2.7± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

DET

league avg

MIA

.706

OPS

.715

.707

.315

OBP

.319

▶

.324

4.10

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.34

3.97

Team ERA

◀

4.16

4.11

1.28

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.25

8.2

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

DET 2 · MIA 0 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked DET +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
DET	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
MIA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
P. MeadowsCF	.227	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
G. Torres2B	.255	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
K. CarpenterRF	.256	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. GreeneLF	.265	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Torkelson1B	.237	2	1	1	0	0	2	0
W. PerezRF	.263	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Keith3B	.252	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
D. DinglerC	.281	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
Z. McKinstry2B	.261	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. JonesDH	.270	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. SweeneySS	.199	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Ibanez2B	.244	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	2	4	1	0	4	7

Player

AVG

RBI

.227

.255

.256

.265

.237

.263

.252

.281

.261

.270

.199

.244

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
K. MonteroSP	5.0	3	0	0	0	5	76
J. UrquidyRP	1.1	2	0	0	1	2	25
T. KahnleRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	0	19
W. VestRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	19
Team	9.0	7	0	0	2	8	139

Player

5.0

1.1

1.2

1.0

Team

9.0

139

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
O. LopezSS	.250	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. MarseeCF	.323	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. RamirezC	.230	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. HicksC	.245	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. Wagaman1B	.248	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
T. JohnstonRF	.267	3	0	1	0	0	1	2
M. AcostaSS	.204	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
V. Mesa Jr.RF	.188	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Sanoja3B	.233	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. HernandezLF	.262	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. Winkler2B	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. WiemerRF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	0	7	0	0	2	8

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
A. MazurSP	6.0	1	2	0	2	4	83
C. RoaRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	14
J. SimpsonRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	12
G. SorianoRP	1.1	2	0	0	0	2	25
Team	9.0	4	2	0	4	7	134

Team

DET

MIA

3 sub-models, blended.

MIA vs DET.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIA vs DET.

3 sub-models, blended.