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FINAL+2MIA
MIA

MIA

52-55

2
0
STL

STL

55-55

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
20,813 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

MIA 2 · STL 0 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIA +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIA0020000002
STL0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

57%Last 7 · 69-51
61%Last 30 · 332-210
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Jul 30·Final/SeriesMIA wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Miami Marlins went into St. Louis Cardinals and beat them, 2–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIA · top performer

MIA
Jesus Sanchez

Jesus Sanchez

RF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

STL · top performer

STL
Brendan Donovan

Brendan Donovan

3B

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIA52-55
2
0
STL55-55
MIA52-55·STL55-55
MIA

MIA

52-55

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
X. EdwardsX. Edwards★2B
1-44110000
SPRINT2872
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
2-44122100
SPRINT25.818
A. RamirezA. Ramirez★C
1-44010001
SPRINT27.354
K. StowersK. Stowers★LF
0-44000001
SPRINT2622
O. LopezO. Lopez★SS
2-44020001
SPRINT28.381
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
0-33000001
H. HernandezH. Hernandez★LF
0-33000001
G. PauleyG. Pauley★3B
0-33000001
D. MyersD. Myers★CF
0-33000001
E. WagamanE. Wagaman1B
0-11000000
Team6-3333262107
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. QuantrillC. Quantrill★RP
5.0300230
T. PhillipsT. PhillipsRP
2.1200130
R. HenriquezR. HenriquezRP
0.2000120
C. FaucherC. FaucherRP
1.0000010
Team9.0500490
STL

STL

55-55

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. DonovanB. Donovan★3B
1-33010011
SPRINT25.18
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
0-44000001
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
1-33010010
SPRINT25.513
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
0-44000001
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
1-44010002
SPRINT25.29
Y. PozoY. Pozo★C
0-44000001
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
1-44010002
SPRINT28.891
T. SaggeseT. Saggese★LF
1-33010011
SPRINT27.354
V. Scott IIV. Scott II★CF
0-22000010
Team5-3131050049
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. MikolasM. Mikolas★SP
6.0522051
R. O'BrienR. O'BrienRP
1.1000010
J. RomeroJ. RomeroRP
1.1100010
K. LeahyK. LeahySP
0.1000000
Team9.0622071

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIA

  • C. Quantrill
    74 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      28%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      23%·86.8 mph·9% whiff
    • FC
      19%·89.4 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      14%·80.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      9%·94.5 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      7%·85.7 mph·50% whiff
  • T. Phillips
    34 pitches·32% CSW
    • ST
      35%·83.8 mph·80% whiff
    • SI
      32%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      15%·83.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      9%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      6%·96.1 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      3%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Faucher
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • ST
      44%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      19%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      19%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      19%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Henriquez
    14 pitches·43% CSW
    • ST
      43%·85.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      21%·95.4 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      14%·97.2 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      14%·86.8 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      7%·91.2 mph·— whiff

STL

  • M. Mikolas
    86 pitches·24% CSW
    • SL
      24%·90.1 mph·11% whiff
    • CU
      22%·77.7 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      22%·95.1 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      21%·94.4 mph·18% whiff
    • CH
      8%·87.6 mph·20% whiff
    • FA
      1%·89.1 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      1%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Romero
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • ST
      47%·82.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      24%·85.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      12%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      12%·81.9 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      6%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
  • R. O'Brien
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • SL
      50%·89.5 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      42%·98.0 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      8%·81.8 mph·— whiff
  • K. Leahy
    2 pitches·0% CSW
    • CU
      50%·82.8 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      50%·95.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

5

2

Runs

0

1

Errors

0

Current series

MIA wins series 2-1

Jul 28MIAMIA1@STLSTL7
Jul 29MIAMIA5@STLSTL0
Jul 30MIAMIA2@STLSTL0today

Season series

MIA leads series 2-1

Jul 28MIAMIA1@STLSTL7
Jul 29MIAMIA5@STLSTL0
Jul 30MIAMIA2@STLSTL0today
Aug 18STLSTL8@MIAMIA3
Aug 19STLSTL7@MIAMIA4
Aug 20STLSTL2@MIAMIA6

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIA ↔ STL

Biggest swing: 20pp · Top 3rd Inning

MIAMIA
J. Sanchez

J. Sanchez

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

C. Quantrill

C. Quantrill

RP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

STLSTL
B. Donovan

B. Donovan

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

M. Mikolas

M. Mikolas

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 5 H

How it ended

MIA beat STL 2-0. Biggest WP swing of the night came in the top 3rd inning (20pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

STL vs MIA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIATop 3rd Inning · 2-0
+20pp→ 62% WP

J. Sánchez homered to center (439 feet), Edwards scored.

MIABottom 5th Inning · 2-0
+13pp→ 63% WP

Donovan · struck out looking.

MIABottom 6th Inning · 2-0
+15pp→ 77% WP

Contreras · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Burleson out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIA0020000002
STL0000000000

Period scoring

MIA won 1 · STL won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

2
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

MIA
STL

Play-by-play · 506 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIA 2·STL 0

  2. B9

    ·

    MIA 2·STL 0

  3. B9

    Saggese lined out to right.

    ·

    MIA 2·STL 0

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 2·STL 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIA 2·STL 0

  6. B9

    Calvin Faucher pitches to Thomas Saggese

    ·

    MIA 2·STL 0

  7. B9

    ·

    MIA 2·STL 0

  8. B9

    Walker struck out looking.

    ·

    MIA 2·STL 0

    −3pp

  9. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    MIA 2·STL 0

  10. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIA 2·STL 0

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 2·STL 0

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIA 2·STL 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIA 2·STL 0

  14. B9

    Calvin Faucher pitches to Jordan Walker

    ·

    MIA 2·STL 0

  15. B9

    ·

    MIA 2·STL 0

  16. B9

    Pozo grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    MIA 2·STL 0

    −4pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 9 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 2·STL 0

  18. B9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIA 2·STL 0

  19. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIA 2·STL 0

  20. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIA 2·STL 0

  21. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIA 2·STL 0

  22. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIA 2·STL 0

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 2·STL 0

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIA 2·STL 0

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    MIA 2·STL 0

  26. B9

    Calvin Faucher pitches to Yohel Pozo

    ·

    MIA 2·STL 0

  27. B9

    Faucher relieved Henriquez

    ·

    MIA 2·STL 0

  28. B9

    Sanoja in left field.

    MIA 2·STL 0

  29. B9

    Wagaman at first base.

    MIA 2·STL 0

  30. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    MIA 2·STL 0

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

STL

Home

2

Runs

0

6

Hits

5

1

Errors

0

10

TB

5

1

HR

0

0

BB

4

7

K

9

8

LOB

16

Player projections

STL vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.2± 2.2low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low
  • Dustin MaySTL
    4.7± 3.0low

Hits

  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.2± 1.4high
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low

Total bases

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA
    1.9± 1.6high
  • Ivan HerreraSTL
    1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Heriberto HernandezMIA
    0.8± 1.3high
  • Javier SanojaMIA
    0.8± 1.7high
  • Owen CaissieMIA
    0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.6± 3.8low
  • Janson JunkMIA
    3.0± 3.8low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.8%

ensemble · MIA favored

  • Elo Static

    49.7%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.1%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.1%

    P(STL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.84 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Heriberto HernandezMIA · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 9, 25sim 96
    72
    9(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 14, 25sim 95
    62
    28(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 25, 25sim 95
    250
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 94
    174
    3(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 29, 25sim 94
    285
    24(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 21, 25sim 94
    252
    28(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs