HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
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THE ONE Analytics
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MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+1PIT
CIN

CIN

60-57

2
3
PIT

PIT

51-66

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
22,092 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CIN

CIN

league avg

PIT

PIT

.705

OPS

.717

▶

.737

.312

OBP

.319

▶

.335

4.19

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.99

4.68

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.22

1.46

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.30

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

CIN 2 · PIT 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CIN +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CIN0100010002
PIT000100023

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
61%Last 30 · 300-195
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Aug 8·Final/SeriesPIT wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates held off Cincinnati Reds, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1B. ReynoldsPIT+68.6pp
  2. 2I. Kiner-FalefaPIT+64.4pp
  3. 3T. PhamPIT+61.5pp

CIN · top performer

CIN
Miguel Andujar

Miguel Andujar

DH

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

PIT · top performer

PIT
Bryan Reynolds

Bryan Reynolds

LF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlCF
.2754000003
M. McLain2B
.2264010002
E. De La CruzSS
.2784010000
A. HaysLF
.2564000001
G. LuxLF
.2804230000
M. AndujarDH
.3331010020
T. StephensonC
.2413021010
J. FraleyRF
.2354000001
K. Hayes3B
.1924000001
- N. MarteRF
.2650000000
- S. Espinal3B
.2491000001
Team33281039

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
C. BurnsSP
6.031111097
G. AshcraftRP
1.00000011
T. SantillanRP
1.02221220
Team8.0533212128

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
S. Horwitz1B
.2584000003
T. PhamLF
.2703110010
B. ReynoldsLF
.2414122002
O. CruzCF
.2094011003
J. SuwinskiRF
.1083000001
J. TrioloSS
.1733000001
L. PegueroSS
.2443010001
H. DavisC
.1693000001
I. Kiner-Falefa2B
.2682100010
Team293530212

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
M. KellerSP
5.26223397
D. MoretaRP
1.11000317
K. NicolasRP
1.01000219
D. SantanaRP
1.0000018
Team9.082239141

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CIN

  • C. Burns
    97 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      58%·98.9 mph·19% whiff
    • SL
      37%·91.3 mph·37% whiff
    • CH
      5%·90.5 mph·100% whiff
  • T. Santillan
    20 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      65%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      35%·85.3 mph·33% whiff
  • G. Ashcraft
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • SL
      73%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      27%·98.9 mph·0% whiff

PIT

  • M. Keller
    97 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      28%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      26%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      23%·82.2 mph·27% whiff
    • SL
      13%·86.5 mph·38% whiff
    • CU
      6%·76.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Nicolas
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      53%·97.9 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      26%·85.1 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      21%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Moreta
    17 pitches·59% CSW
    • SL
      71%·82.9 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      29%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Santana
    8 pitches·38% CSW
    • SL
      50%·87.5 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      38%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·91.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

5

2

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

PIT wins series 4-3

May 19CINCIN7@PITPIT1
May 20CINCIN0@PITPIT1
May 21CINCIN1@PITPIT3
Aug 7CINCIN0@PITPIT7
Aug 8CINCIN2@PITPIT3today
Aug 9CINCIN2@PITPIT1
Aug 10CINCIN14@PITPIT8

Season series

Series tied 4-4

Apr 11PITPIT3@CINCIN5
Apr 12PITPIT2@CINCIN5
Apr 13PITPIT0@CINCIN4
May 19CINCIN7@PITPIT1
May 20CINCIN0@PITPIT1
May 21CINCIN1@PITPIT3
Aug 7CINCIN0@PITPIT7
Aug 8CINCIN2@PITPIT3today
Aug 9CINCIN2@PITPIT1
Aug 10CINCIN14@PITPIT8
Sep 23PITPIT4@CINCIN2
Sep 24PITPIT4@CINCIN3
Sep 25PITPIT1@CINCIN2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCIN ↔ PIT

Biggest swing: 58pp · Bottom 8th Inning

CINCIN
M. Andujar

M. Andujar

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

C. Burns

C. Burns

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 10 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

PITPIT
B. Reynolds

B. Reynolds

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

M. Keller

M. Keller

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

How it ended

PIT beat CIN 3-2. Reynolds's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (58pp).

Win probability

PIT vs CIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITBottom 4th Inning · 1-1
+12pp→ 67% WP

Cruz · doubled to left, Reynolds scored.

CINTop 6th Inning · 2-1
+19pp→ 67% WP

Stephenson · doubled to right, Lux scored, Andujar to third.

PITBottom 8th Inning · 2-3
+58pp→ 88% WP

Reynolds · tripled to right, Kiner-Falefa scored and Pham scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CIN0100010002
PIT00010002—3

Period scoring

CIN won 2 · PIT won 2

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Fraley 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Cruz 1

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Stephenson 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
2

Inn 8

Reynolds 2

0

Inn 9

CIN
PIT

Play-by-play · 514 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CIN 2·PIT 3

  2. T9

    Hayes struck out swinging.

    ·

    CIN 2·PIT 3

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 2·PIT 3

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 2·PIT 3

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 2·PIT 3

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 2·PIT 3

  7. T9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Ke'Bryan Hayes

    ·

    CIN 2·PIT 3

  8. T9

    ·

    CIN 2·PIT 3

  9. T9

    Fraley flied out to center.

    ·

    CIN 2·PIT 3

    +5pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 2·PIT 3

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 2·PIT 3

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CIN 2·PIT 3

  13. T9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Jake Fraley

    ·

    CIN 2·PIT 3

  14. T9

    ·

    CIN 2·PIT 3

  15. T9

    Stephenson grounded out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    CIN 2·PIT 3

    +7pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CIN 2·PIT 3

  17. T9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Tyler Stephenson

    ·

    CIN 2·PIT 3

  18. T9

    Santana relieved Nicolas

    ·

    CIN 2·PIT 3

  19. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CIN 2·PIT 3

  20. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    CIN 2·PIT 3

  21. B8

    · ·

    CIN 2·PIT 3

  22. B8

    Cruz struck out swinging.

    · ·

    CIN 2·PIT 3

    −2pp

  23. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CIN 2·PIT 3

  24. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CIN 2·PIT 3

  25. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    CIN 2·PIT 3

  26. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CIN 2·PIT 3

  27. B8

    Tony Santillan pitches to Oneil Cruz

    · ·

    CIN 2·PIT 3

  28. B8

    ·

    CIN 2·PIT 3

  29. B8

    Reynolds tripled to right, Kiner-Falefa scored and Pham scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CIN 2·PIT 3

    +58pp

  30. B8

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 2·PIT 3

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

2

Runs

3

8

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

11

TB

9

0

HR

0

3

BB

2

9

K

12

10

LOB

8

Player projections

PIT vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.9± 3.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.8± 3.2low
  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.4± 2.9low

Hits

  • Jake MangumPIT
    1.2± 1.1high
  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.8± 2.2high
  • Matt McLainCIN
    1.7± 2.5high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.7± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Esmerlyn ValdezPIT
    0.7± 1.7low
  • Brandon LowePIT
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Henry DavisPIT
    0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Mitch KellerPIT
    3.5± 3.0low
  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.2± 2.6low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.1± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

45.0%

ensemble · CIN favored

  • Elo Static

    49.6%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.0%

    P(PIT win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.2%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.