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FINAL+3STL
SD

SD

55-49

0
3
STL

STL

54-51

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
29,297 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

SD 0 · STL 3 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked STL +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SD0000000000
STL010200003

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 68-48
62%Last 30 · 331-207
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Jul 25·Final/Seriestied 2-2

Recap · MLB

St. Louis Cardinals held off San Diego Padres, 3–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SD · top performer

SD
Fernando Tatis Jr.

Fernando Tatis Jr.

RF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

STL · top performer

STL
Willson Contreras

Willson Contreras

1B

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

MLB · San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SD55-49
0
3
STL54-51
SD55-49·STL54-51
SD

SD

55-49

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
2-44020001
SPRINT28.483
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
1-44010000
SPRINT26.632
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
2-44020000
SPRINT24.32
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
1-44010000
SPRINT28.688
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
2-44020000
SPRINT27.148
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
0-44000001
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
1-44010001
J. IglesiasJ. Iglesias★2B
1-44010000
E. DiazE. Diaz★C
1-22010000
T. BrooksT. BrooksLF
0-11000000
M. MaldonadoM. MaldonadoC
0-11000001
Team11-36360110004
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. PivettaN. Pivetta★SP
6.1332240
W. PeraltaW. PeraltaRP
0.2000000
D. MorganD. MorganRP
1.0200000
Team8.0532240
STL

STL

54-51

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. DonovanB. Donovan★3B
0-44000001
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
2-44020001
SPRINT25.513
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
0-44000000
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
2-22220010
SPRINT26.838
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
0-33100010
SPRINT25.29
M. WinnM. Winn★SS
1-22012000
SPRINT2872
Y. PozoY. Pozo★C
0-33001000
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
0-33000001
V. Scott IIV. Scott II★CF
0-33000001
Team5-2828353024
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. MikolasM. Mikolas★SP
5.0700010
S. MatzS. MatzSP
1.0200000
P. MatonP. MatonRP
1.0000010
J. RomeroJ. RomeroRP
1.0100000
R. HelsleyR. HelsleyRP
1.0100020
Team9.01100040

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SD

  • N. Pivetta
    90 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      44%·94.4 mph·24% whiff
    • CU
      18%·80.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      18%·82.4 mph·22% whiff
    • FC
      16%·92.4 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      2%·94.9 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      2%·88.1 mph·50% whiff
  • D. Morgan
    9 pitches·0% CSW
    • FF
      44%·98.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      44%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      11%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
  • W. Peralta
    6 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      50%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      33%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·94.3 mph·— whiff

STL

  • M. Mikolas
    73 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      27%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      25%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      19%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      16%·76.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      7%·81.2 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      5%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Helsley
    13 pitches·54% CSW
    • FF
      46%·100.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      46%·89.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      8%·79.1 mph·100% whiff
  • S. Matz
    11 pitches·55% CSW
    • SI
      45%·93.9 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      36%·78.6 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      18%·82.4 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Maton
    9 pitches·44% CSW
    • CU
      56%·76.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      33%·93.1 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      11%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Romero
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • ST
      44%·82.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      33%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·86.8 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

5

0

Runs

3

1

Errors

1

Current series

Series tied 2-2

Jul 24SDSD7@STLSTL9
Jul 25SDSD0@STLSTL3today
Jul 26SDSD3@STLSTL1
Jul 27SDSD9@STLSTL2

Season series

STL leads series 2-0

Jul 24SDSD7@STLSTL9
Jul 25SDSD0@STLSTL3today
Jul 26SDSD3@STLSTL1
Jul 27SDSD9@STLSTL2
Aug 2STLSTL1@SDSD4
Aug 3STLSTL8@SDSD5
Aug 3STLSTL3@SDSD7

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSD ↔ STL

Biggest swing: 15pp · Bottom 4th Inning

SDSD
F. Tatis Jr.

F. Tatis Jr.

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

N. Pivetta

N. Pivetta

SP

Starting pitcher

6.1 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

STLSTL
W. Contreras

W. Contreras

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2 R · 2.000 OPS

M. Mikolas

M. Mikolas

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 1 K · 0 ER · 7 H

How it ended

STL beat SD 3-0.

Win probability

STL vs SD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
STLTop 4th Inning · 0-1
+13pp→ 65% WP

Sheets · flied into double play, right to right to second, Bogaerts thrown out at second, Merrill to third.

STLBottom 4th Inning · 0-3
+15pp→ 88% WP

Winn · doubled to center, Arenado scored and Contreras scored.

STLBottom 6th Inning · 0-3
+10pp→ 94% WP

Contreras · doubled to center.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SD0000000000
STL01020000—3

Period scoring

SD won 0 · STL won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Pozo 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
2

Inn 4

Winn 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

SD
STL

Play-by-play · 473 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    SD 0·STL 3

  2. T9

    Maldonado struck out swinging.

    · ·

    SD 0·STL 3

    +0.9pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    SD 0·STL 3

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SD 0·STL 3

  5. T9

    Iglesias stole second, Iglesias safe at third on throwing error by catcher Pozo.

    · ·

    SD 0·STL 3

  6. T9

    Iglesias stole second, Iglesias safe at third on throwing error by catcher Pozo.

    · ·

    SD 0·STL 3

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SD 0·STL 3

  8. T9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Martin Maldonado

    · ·

    SD 0·STL 3

  9. T9

    ·

    SD 0·STL 3

  10. T9

    Iglesias singled to right.

    ·

    SD 0·STL 3

    −0.6pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 0·STL 3

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    SD 0·STL 3

  13. T9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Jose Iglesias

    ·

    SD 0·STL 3

  14. T9

    ·

    SD 0·STL 3

  15. T9

    Cronenworth lined out to right.

    ·

    SD 0·STL 3

    +0.8pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 0·STL 3

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SD 0·STL 3

  18. T9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Jake Cronenworth

    ·

    SD 0·STL 3

  19. T9

    ·

    SD 0·STL 3

  20. T9

    Sheets struck out looking.

    ·

    SD 0·STL 3

    +2pp

  21. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    SD 0·STL 3

  22. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 0·STL 3

  23. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 0·STL 3

  24. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SD 0·STL 3

  25. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SD 0·STL 3

  26. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 0·STL 3

  27. T9

    Ryan Helsley pitches to Gavin Sheets

    ·

    SD 0·STL 3

  28. T9

    Helsley relieved Romero

    ·

    SD 0·STL 3

  29. T9

    Hampson in left field.

    SD 0·STL 3

  30. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    SD 0·STL 3

Team stats

SD

Away

Stat

STL

Home

0

Runs

3

11

Hits

5

1

Errors

1

13

TB

7

0

HR

0

0

BB

2

4

K

4

19

LOB

12

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 26, 25sim 97
    253
    24(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 29, 25sim 97
    285
    24(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 21, 25sim 96
    252
    28(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 95
    172
    23(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 95
    72
    9(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 95
    51
    7(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Jake CronenworthSD · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Masyn WinnSTL · SS
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

STL vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low
  • Griffin CanningSD
    4.8± 2.4low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low
  • Ty FranceSD
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low
  • Ivan HerreraSTL
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    1.8± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Ty FranceSD
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Yu DarvishSD
    2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.1%

ensemble · SD favored

  • Elo Static

    51.7%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    49.4%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.7%

    P(STL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.08 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.