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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1CIN
CIN

CIN

61-57

2
1
PIT

PIT

51-67

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
30,274 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

CIN 2 · PIT 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PIT +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CIN0001001002
PIT0010000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 70-49
62%Last 30 · 333-208
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 9, 25sim 98
    72
    9(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 8, 25sim 96
    172
    23(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 25, 25sim 95
    250
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 95
    53
    29(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 2, 25sim 94
    111
    24(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 94
    52
    29(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, Aug 9·Final/SeriesPIT wins series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Cincinnati Reds went into Pittsburgh Pirates and beat them, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CIN · top performer

CIN
Noelvi Marte

Noelvi Marte

RF

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

PIT · top performer

PIT
Spencer Horwitz

Spencer Horwitz

1B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CIN61-57
2
1
PIT51-67
CIN61-57·PIT51-67
CIN

CIN

61-57

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. FriedlT. Friedl★CF
0-22001011
SPRINT26.838
M. McLainM. McLain★2B
1-33010011
SPRINT28.586
E. De La CruzE. De La Cruz★SS
0-44000002
M. AndujarM. Andujar★DH
1-44010001
SPRINT26.530
G. LuxG. Lux★LF
0-44000003
S. SteerS. Steer★LF
2-44120001
SPRINT28.483
T. StephensonT. Stephenson★C
0-44000002
N. MarteN. Marte★RF
3-44131000
SPRINT28.992
K. HayesK. Hayes★3B
0-44000000
Team7-33332720211
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. MartinezN. Martinez★SP
7.0411240
T. SantillanT. SantillanRP
1.0000100
E. PaganE. PaganRP
1.0000100
Team9.0411440
PIT

PIT

51-67

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
2-33020010
SPRINT24.85
T. PhamT. Pham★LF
0-22001011
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
0-44000000
SPRINT27.969
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
0-33000011
A. McCutchenA. McCutchen★DH
0-33000011
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
1-44010000
SPRINT28.586
J. BartJ. Bart★C
0-33000001
L. PegueroL. Peguero★SS
0-33000000
J. TrioloJ. Triolo★3B
1-33110000
SPRINT28.483
Team4-2828141044
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. AshcraftB. Ashcraft★SP
3.1311150
C. MlodzinskiC. MlodzinskiSP
3.0311030
R. BoruckiR. BoruckiRP
0.2000100
I. MattsonI. MattsonRP
1.0000020
C. SandersC. SandersRP
1.0100010
Team9.07222110

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CIN

  • N. Martinez
    94 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      29%·92.8 mph·15% whiff
    • CH
      16%·78.6 mph·29% whiff
    • FC
      16%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      15%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      14%·79.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·86.3 mph·50% whiff
  • T. Santillan
    19 pitches·16% CSW
    • FF
      79%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      21%·86.0 mph·— whiff
  • E. Pagan
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      56%·96.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      39%·87.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      6%·82.6 mph·— whiff

PIT

  • B. Ashcraft
    56 pitches·34% CSW
    • SL
      39%·91.3 mph·42% whiff
    • CU
      23%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      21%·97.4 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      16%·96.9 mph·20% whiff
  • C. Mlodzinski
    47 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      38%·97.4 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      17%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      15%·85.7 mph·40% whiff
    • FS
      15%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      13%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      2%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Borucki
    14 pitches·14% CSW
    • SL
      50%·87.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      29%·81.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      14%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·95.4 mph·100% whiff
  • I. Mattson
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      85%·93.2 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      8%·86.3 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      8%·86.2 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Sanders
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      62%·96.0 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      15%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      15%·83.4 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      8%·89.1 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

4

2

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

PIT wins series 4-3

May 19CINCIN7@PITPIT1
May 20CINCIN0@PITPIT1
May 21CINCIN1@PITPIT3
Aug 7CINCIN0@PITPIT7
Aug 8CINCIN2@PITPIT3
Aug 9CINCIN2@PITPIT1today
Aug 10CINCIN14@PITPIT8

Season series

CIN leads series 5-4

Apr 11PITPIT3@CINCIN5
Apr 12PITPIT2@CINCIN5
Apr 13PITPIT0@CINCIN4
May 19CINCIN7@PITPIT1
May 20CINCIN0@PITPIT1
May 21CINCIN1@PITPIT3
Aug 7CINCIN0@PITPIT7
Aug 8CINCIN2@PITPIT3
Aug 9CINCIN2@PITPIT1today
Aug 10CINCIN14@PITPIT8
Sep 23PITPIT4@CINCIN2
Sep 24PITPIT4@CINCIN3
Sep 25PITPIT1@CINCIN2

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCIN ↔ PIT

Biggest swing: 18pp · Bottom 9th Inning

CINCIN
N. Marte

N. Marte

RF

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1 R · 1.500 OPS

N. Martinez

N. Martinez

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

PITPIT
S. Horwitz

S. Horwitz

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.417 OPS

B. Ashcraft

B. Ashcraft

SP

Starting pitcher

3.1 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CIN beat PIT 2-1. N. Gonzales's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CINTop 4th Inning · 1-1
+16pp→ 54% WP

Marte · doubled to left, Steer scored.

CINBottom 7th Inning · 2-1
+15pp→ 76% WP

Bart · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, N. Gonzales out at second.

CINBottom 9th Inning · 2-1
+18pp→ 100% WP

N. Gonzales · lined into double play, shortstop to first, Cruz out at first.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CIN0001001002
PIT0010000001

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

2

Runs

1

7

Hits

4

0

Errors

0

11

TB

5

0

HR

0

2

BB

4

11

K

4

18

LOB

13

Win probability

PIT vs CIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

CIN won 2 · PIT won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Pham 1

1
0

Inn 4

Marte 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Friedl 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

CIN
PIT

Play-by-play · 527 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CIN 2·PIT 1

  2. B9

    ·

    CIN 2·PIT 1

  3. B9

    N. Gonzales lined into double play, shortstop to first, Cruz out at first.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CIN 2·PIT 1

    −18pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 2·PIT 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CIN 2·PIT 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CIN 2·PIT 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CIN 2·PIT 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 2·PIT 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    CIN 2·PIT 1

  10. B9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Nick Gonzales

    · ·

    CIN 2·PIT 1

  11. B9

    · ·

    CIN 2·PIT 1

  12. B9

    McCutchen flied out to left.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CIN 2·PIT 1

    −12pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CIN 2·PIT 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CIN 2·PIT 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CIN 2·PIT 1

  16. B9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Andrew McCutchen

    · ·

    CIN 2·PIT 1

  17. B9

    ·

    CIN 2·PIT 1

  18. B9

    Cruz walked.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    CIN 2·PIT 1

    +12pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 9 : Ball 4

    ·

    CIN 2·PIT 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 8 : Ball 3

    ·

    CIN 2·PIT 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 2·PIT 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 2·PIT 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CIN 2·PIT 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    CIN 2·PIT 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CIN 2·PIT 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CIN 2·PIT 1

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CIN 2·PIT 1

  28. B9

    Emilio Pagan pitches to Oneil Cruz

    · ·

    CIN 2·PIT 1

  29. B9

    Pagán relieved Santillan

    ·

    CIN 2·PIT 1

  30. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    CIN 2·PIT 1

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Matt McLainCIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Spencer SteerCIN · LF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Jake FraleyTB · RF
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

PIT vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Chase BurnsCIN
    6.5± 3.8low

Hits

  • Blake DunnCIN
    1.3± 1.1medium
  • Sal StewartCIN
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    2.2± 1.7high
  • Sal StewartCIN
    2.2± 2.7high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Nathaniel LoweCIN
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Elly De La CruzCIN
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Chris PaddackCIN
    3.5± 3.4low
  • Nick LodoloCIN
    3.3± 2.3low
  • Brady SingerCIN
    3.2± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.5%

ensemble · CIN favored

  • Elo Static

    50.7%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.8%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.0%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.19 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.