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Live · 4
  • MLBBot 5
    NYY 1@ATH 2
    +42.6ppmedium
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    PHI 1@LAD 2
    +21.5ppmedium
  • MLBBot 5
    ARI 0@SEA 4
    +46.7pplow
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    SF 0@COL 8
    +58.9pplow
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1STL
ATH

ATH

64-76

1
2
STL

STL

69-71

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
17,002 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

ATH 1 · STL 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATH +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATH0010000001
STL000002002

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

57%Last 7 · 69-51
61%Last 30 · 332-210
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Sep 2·Final/SeriesSTL wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

St. Louis Cardinals held off Athletics, 2–1. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATH · top performer

ATH
Nick Kurtz

Nick Kurtz

1B

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

STL · top performer

STL
Nathan Church

Nathan Church

LF

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Athletics at St. Louis Cardinals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATH64-76
1
2
STL69-71
ATH64-76·STL69-71
ATH

ATH

64-76

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
1-33011011
SPRINT26.632
J. WilsonJ. Wilson★SS
0-33000010
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
0-44000000
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
1-44010000
SPRINT26.735
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
1-44010001
SPRINT28.586
L. ButlerL. Butler★RF
0-33000001
Z. GelofZ. Gelof★3B
1-33010000
SPRINT28.891
J. BledayJ. Bleday★LF
1-33110000
SPRINT27.457
D. HernaizD. Hernaiz★SS
0-22000000
C. ThomasC. ThomasRF
0-11000000
C. CortesC. CortesRF
0-11000000
Team5-3131151023
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. SeverinoL. Severino★SP
5.0300140
H. HarrisH. HarrisRP
0.2011100
M. KellyM. KellyRP
0.1111001
S. NewcombS. NewcombRP
2.0100010
Team8.0522251
STL

STL

69-71

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
L. NootbaarL. Nootbaar★LF
1-44010000
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
1-33112100
SPRINT25.513
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
0-22000010
SPRINT26.838
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
0-33000001
M. WinnM. Winn★SS
0-33000002
J. CrooksJ. Crooks★C
0-33000001
J. FerminJ. Fermin★LF
0-33000001
V. Scott IIV. Scott II★CF
1-22110010
SPRINT29.798
N. ChurchN. Church★LF
2-22020000
SPRINT28.586
Team5-2525252125
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. MikolasM. Mikolas★SP
6.0511100
M. SvansonM. SvansonRP
2.0000120
J. RomeroJ. RomeroRP
1.0000010
Team9.0511230

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATH

  • L. Severino
    61 pitches·23% CSW
    • ST
      39%·83.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      25%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      21%·95.8 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      10%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Newcomb
    26 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      35%·93.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      31%·94.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SV
      27%·82.8 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      4%·85.4 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      4%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Harris
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      63%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      38%·75.0 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Kelly
    4 pitches·0% CSW
    • SL
      50%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      50%·83.6 mph·0% whiff

STL

  • M. Mikolas
    67 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      30%·94.1 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      27%·88.8 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      18%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      12%·77.1 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Svanson
    33 pitches·21% CSW
    • ST
      39%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      36%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      24%·92.1 mph·25% whiff
  • J. Romero
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      50%·95.0 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      25%·88.1 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      25%·82.4 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

5

1

Runs

2

0

Errors

1

Current series

STL wins series 2-1

Sep 1ATHATH11@STLSTL3
Sep 2ATHATH1@STLSTL2today
Sep 3ATHATH1@STLSTL5

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Sep 1ATHATH11@STLSTL3
Sep 2ATHATH1@STLSTL2today
Sep 3ATHATH1@STLSTL5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATH ↔ STL

Biggest swing: 33pp · Bottom 6th Inning

ATHATH
N. Kurtz

N. Kurtz

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

L. Severino

L. Severino

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

STLSTL
N. Church

N. Church

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2.000 OPS

M. Mikolas

M. Mikolas

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

How it ended

STL beat ATH 2-1. Herrera's play in the bottom 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (33pp).

Win probability

STL vs ATH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATHTop 3rd Inning · 0-0
+11pp→ 53% WP

Bleday · doubled to right, Bleday safe at third on fielding error by right fielder Church.

ATHTop 5th Inning · 1-0
+15pp→ 64% WP

Gelof · doubled to left.

STLBottom 6th Inning · 1-2
+33pp→ 78% WP

Herrera · homered to center (414 feet), Scott II scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATH0010000001
STL00000200—2

Period scoring

ATH won 1 · STL won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Kurtz 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
2

Inn 6

Herrera 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

ATH
STL

Play-by-play · 443 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    ATH 1·STL 2

  2. T9

    Thomas grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    ATH 1·STL 2

    +2pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 1·STL 2

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 1·STL 2

  5. T9

    JoJo Romero pitches to Colby Thomas

    ·

    ATH 1·STL 2

  6. T9

    Thomas hit for Butler

    ·

    ATH 1·STL 2

  7. T9

    ·

    ATH 1·STL 2

  8. T9

    Langeliers struck out looking.

    ·

    ATH 1·STL 2

    +4pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    ATH 1·STL 2

  10. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    ATH 1·STL 2

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATH 1·STL 2

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATH 1·STL 2

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 1·STL 2

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATH 1·STL 2

  15. T9

    JoJo Romero pitches to Shea Langeliers

    ·

    ATH 1·STL 2

  16. T9

    ·

    ATH 1·STL 2

  17. T9

    Soderstrom grounded out to second.

    ·

    ATH 1·STL 2

    +5pp

  18. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 1·STL 2

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 1·STL 2

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 1·STL 2

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 1·STL 2

  22. T9

    JoJo Romero pitches to Tyler Soderstrom

    ·

    ATH 1·STL 2

  23. T9

    Romero relieved Svanson

    ·

    ATH 1·STL 2

  24. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    ATH 1·STL 2

  25. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    ATH 1·STL 2

  26. B8

    · ·

    ATH 1·STL 2

  27. B8

    Nootbaar flied out to left.

    · ·

    ATH 1·STL 2

  28. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 1·STL 2

  29. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 1·STL 2

  30. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATH 1·STL 2

Team stats

ATH

Away

Stat

STL

Home

1

Runs

2

5

Hits

5

0

Errors

1

9

TB

9

0

HR

1

2

BB

2

3

K

5

12

LOB

5

Player projections

STL vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    4.8± 2.0low
  • Dustin MaySTL
    4.7± 3.0low

Hits

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low
  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low
  • Ivan HerreraSTL
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    1.8± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    0.6± 1.2low

Earned runs

  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    2.6± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.6%

ensemble · ATH favored

  • Elo Static

    48.9%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    48.5%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.6%

    P(STL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.17 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 12 players in cohort
  • Victor Scott IISTL · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586
  • Masyn WinnSTL · SS
    SPRINT2872

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Sep 6, 25sim 96
    262
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 16, 25sim 96
    170
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 96
    53
    29(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 95
    300
    5(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 95
    52
    29(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 3, 25sim 95
    111
    24(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs