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  • MLBMid 6
    PHI 1@LAD 2
    +23.8ppmedium
  • MLBTop 7
    NYY 1@ATH 3
    +59.0pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    ARI 0@SEA 4
    +46.7pplow
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6HOU
HOU

HOU

66-52

7
1
NYY

NYY

62-56

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
43,658 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 7 · NYY 1 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYY +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU1010200037
NYY0000001001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

57%Last 7 · 69-51
61%Last 30 · 332-210
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 8, 25sim 100
    185
    10(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 97
    184
    10(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 96
    211
    25(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 3, 25sim 95
    134
    12(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 2, 25sim 95
    133
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 30, 25sim 95
    65
    7(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Aug 10·Final/SeriesHOU wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Houston Astros went into New York Yankees and beat them, 7–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Jose Altuve

Jose Altuve

2B

2.467OPS

3-2

AB-H

3

R

1

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Giancarlo Stanton

Giancarlo Stanton

DH

1.000OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
HOU66-52
7
1
NYY62-56
HOU66-52·NYY62-56
HOU

HOU

66-52

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaJ. Pena★SS
0-55000002
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
2-55221101
SPRINT27.251
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
2-33321121
SPRINT27.867
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
3-44231010
SPRINT25.920
V. CaratiniV. Caratini★C
0-44000001
J. SanchezJ. Sanchez★RF
0-33000002
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
1-55012002
SPRINT29.395
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
2-55021000
SPRINT26.428
C. McCormickC. McCormick★LF
1-44010011
R. UriasR. Urias3B
1-11011000
Team12-393971272410
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. AlexanderJ. Alexander★RP
6.0100330
B. SousaB. SousaRP
0.1211100
B. AbreuB. AbreuRP
1.2000110
B. KingB. KingRP
1.0000030
Team9.0311570
NYY

NYY

62-56

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
0-33000012
SPRINT26.735
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
1-33010010
SPRINT26.941
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
0-33000010
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
0-44000001
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
1-44110001
SPRINT28.175
J. DominguezJ. Dominguez★LF
0-22000000
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
0-33000011
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
0-22001000
SPRINT2622
A. WellsA. Wells★C
0-22000011
G. StantonG. StantonDH
1-22010001
SPRINT23.81
Team3-2828131057
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. FriedM. Fried★SP
5.0844131
D. WilliamsD. WilliamsRP
1.0000030
B. HeadrickB. HeadrickRP
2.0000240
T. HillT. HillRP
1.0433101
Team9.012774102

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

  • J. Alexander
    87 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      40%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      34%·80.0 mph·35% whiff
    • ST
      17%·78.0 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      8%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Abreu
    18 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      50%·96.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      50%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
  • B. King
    14 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      64%·92.5 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      29%·80.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      7%·88.8 mph·— whiff
  • B. Sousa
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      60%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      40%·87.3 mph·50% whiff

NYY

  • M. Fried
    94 pitches·28% CSW
    • FC
      32%·94.6 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      21%·74.7 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      19%·83.9 mph·27% whiff
    • SI
      11%·94.8 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      10%·85.6 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      7%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Headrick
    42 pitches·40% CSW
    • FF
      52%·95.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      26%·84.5 mph·78% whiff
    • FS
      21%·84.6 mph·50% whiff
  • T. Hill
    27 pitches·4% CSW
    • SI
      81%·89.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      15%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      4%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Williams
    11 pitches·64% CSW
    • FF
      55%·94.5 mph·75% whiff
    • CH
      45%·84.2 mph·33% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

3

7

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

HOU wins series 2-1

Aug 8HOUHOU5@NYYNYY3
Aug 9HOUHOU4@NYYNYY5
Aug 10HOUHOU7@NYYNYY1today

Season series

HOU leads series 2-1

Aug 8HOUHOU5@NYYNYY3
Aug 9HOUHOU4@NYYNYY5
Aug 10HOUHOU7@NYYNYY1today
Sep 3NYYNYY7@HOUHOU1
Sep 4NYYNYY7@HOUHOU8
Sep 4NYYNYY8@HOUHOU4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 18pp · Top 5th Inning

HOUHOU
J. Altuve

J. Altuve

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.467 OPS

J. Alexander

J. Alexander

RP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 3 BB

NYYNYY
G. Stanton

G. Stanton

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.000 OPS

M. Fried

M. Fried

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

How it ended

HOU beat NYY 7-1. Smith's play in the top 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

NYY vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
HOUTop 3rd Inning · 2-0
+13pp→ 53% WP

Walker · doubled to center, Altuve scored.

NYYBottom 4th Inning · 2-0
+10pp→ 50% WP

Judge · walked.

HOUTop 5th Inning · 4-0
+18pp→ 86% WP

Smith · doubled to right, Correa scored and Walker scored, Sánchez to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU1010200037
NYY0000001001

Period scoring

HOU won 4 · NYY won 1

1
0

Inn 1

Altuve 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Walker 1

0
0

Inn 4

2
0

Inn 5

Smith 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

McMahon 1

0
0

Inn 8

3
0

Inn 9

Correa 1

HOU
NYY

Play-by-play · 591 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    HOU 7·NYY 1

  2. B9

    ·

    HOU 7·NYY 1

  3. B9

    Volpe struck out swinging.

    ·

    HOU 7·NYY 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 7·NYY 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 7·NYY 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    HOU 7·NYY 1

  7. B9

    Bryan King pitches to Anthony Volpe

    ·

    HOU 7·NYY 1

  8. B9

    ·

    HOU 7·NYY 1

  9. B9

    Stanton struck out looking.

    ·

    HOU 7·NYY 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    HOU 7·NYY 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    HOU 7·NYY 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 7·NYY 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    HOU 7·NYY 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 7·NYY 1

  15. B9

    Bryan King pitches to Giancarlo Stanton

    ·

    HOU 7·NYY 1

  16. B9

    ·

    HOU 7·NYY 1

  17. B9

    Chisholm Jr. struck out looking.

    ·

    HOU 7·NYY 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    HOU 7·NYY 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    HOU 7·NYY 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 7·NYY 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 7·NYY 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    HOU 7·NYY 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 7·NYY 1

  24. B9

    Bryan King pitches to Jazz Chisholm Jr.

    ·

    HOU 7·NYY 1

  25. B9

    King relieved Abreu

    ·

    HOU 7·NYY 1

  26. B9

    Dubón in left field.

    HOU 7·NYY 1

  27. B9

    Urías at second base.

    HOU 7·NYY 1

  28. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    HOU 7·NYY 1

  29. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    HOU 7·NYY 1

  30. T9

    · ·

    HOU 7·NYY 1

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

7

Runs

1

12

Hits

3

0

Errors

0

22

TB

3

2

HR

0

4

BB

5

10

K

7

20

LOB

13

Player projections

NYY vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    2.4± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.9%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    51.5%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.8%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.0%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.98 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 15 players in cohort
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175