MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1NYY

HOU

65-52

NYY

62-55

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York

45,738 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.6%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
50.3%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.7%
P(NYY win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.9%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NYY vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.7± 2.0low
Ryan WeathersNYY
6.5± 2.9low
Will WarrenNYY
6.1± 3.3low

Hits

Ben RiceNYY
1.2± 1.3high
Taylor TrammellHOU
1.1± 0.8low
Cody BellingerNYY
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Ben RiceNYY
2.4± 2.8high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.3± 3.5high
Christian WalkerHOU
2.0± 2.9high

RBIs

Christian WalkerHOU
0.9± 1.4high
Ben RiceNYY
0.8± 1.1high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.4± 2.8low
Tatsuya ImaiHOU
2.7± 3.2low
Peter LambertHOU
2.4± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

HOU 4 · NYY 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
HOU	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	4
NYY	2	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
J. Pena★SS	1-4	4	1	1	1	1	1	2
SPRINT28.483
J. Sanchez★RF	1-4	4	2	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT25.818
J. Altuve★2B	2-4	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
SPRINT27.867
C. Correa★SS	2-3	3	0	2	1	0	1	0
SPRINT27.251
C. Walker★1B	0-3	3	0	0	1	0	1	1
SPRINT25.920
Y. Diaz★C	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. Trammell★CF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Urias★3B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. McCormick★LF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. SmithRF	0-1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0

Team	7-33	33	4	7	4	1	4	11

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

1-4

1-4

2-4

2-3

0-3

0-4

0-4

0-4

1-2

0-1

Team

7-33

	Pitching
F. Valdez★SP	5.2	8	4	4	4	1	0
K. OrtRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. KingRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	1
Team	8.0	9	5	5	4	2	1

Pitching

Player

F. Valdez★SP

5.2

K. OrtRP

1.1

B. KingRP

1.0

Team

8.0

	Batting
P. Goldschmidt★1B	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
SPRINT24.74
A. Judge★RF	1-2	2	2	1	0	0	2	0
SPRINT26.838
C. Bellinger★LF	2-4	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.560
G. Stanton★DH	1-2	2	0	1	2	0	2	1
SPRINT23.81
B. Rice★1B	0-3	3	0	0	1	0	0	0
A. Volpe★SS	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Grisham★CF	3-4	4	1	3	1	1	0	0
SPRINT26.735
J. Caballero★SS	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. McMahon★3B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0

Team	9-29	29	5	9	4	1	4	2

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI