HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 9
  • MLBTop 3
    COL 0@ATH 0
    -18.1pphigh
  • MLBTop 2
    CHC 0@SF 0
    -12.4pphigh
  • MLBTop 7
    STL 3@MIN 4
    +41.4ppmedium
  • MLBMid 9
    ARI 5@CIN 2
    -51.8pplow
  • MLBEnd 6
    ATL 3@NYM 7
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBBot 4
    TB 0@LAA 4
    +62.6pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    SEA 8@WSH 1
    -47.4pplow
  • WNBA7:24 - 2nd
    GS 26@SEA 27
    +9.1pphigh
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+2MIA
NYY

NYY

60-51

0
2
MIA

MIA

54-55

loanDepot park · Miami, Florida
34,645 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

NYY

league avg

MIA

MIA

.763

OPS

◀

.715

.707

.331

OBP

◀

.319

.324

5.10

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.34

3.36

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.11

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.25

8.7

K / 9

8.5

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

NYY 0 · MIA 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIA +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYY0000000000
MIA100100002

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

68%Last 7 · 67-32
62%Last 30 · 305-190
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Aug 2·Final/SeriesMIA wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Miami Marlins held off New York Yankees, 2–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1E. PerezMIA+24.8pp
  2. 2A. RamirezMIA+18.9pp
  3. 3C. SchlittlerNYY−12.4pp

NYY · top performer

NYY
Giancarlo Stanton

Giancarlo Stanton

DH

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MIA · top performer

MIA
Agustin Ramirez

Agustin Ramirez

C

3.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · New York Yankees at Miami Marlins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamCF
.2473000010
J. DominguezLF
.2624000002
C. BellingerLF
.2794000001
G. StantonDH
.2693010000
J. Chisholm Jr.2B
.2422000011
B. Rice1B
.2333010000
P. Goldschmidt1B
.2782000010
R. McMahon3B
.3213000002
A. VolpeSS
.2213000001
Team27020037

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
C. SchlittlerSP
5.04222692
J. BirdRP
1.00000214
L. WeaverRP
1.00000112
T. HillRP
1.00001010
Team8.042239128

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
X. Edwards2B
.2933000012
K. StowersLF
.2934000003
A. RamirezC
.2443222201
L. HicksC
.2633010002
O. LopezSS
.2493000000
J. MarseeCF
.5002010011
E. Wagaman1B
.2333000000
G. Pauley3B
.2113000000
D. MyersCF
.2512000010
Team26242239

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
E. PerezSP
6.02003588
R. HenriquezRP
1.0000018
T. PhillipsRP
1.00000010
C. FaucherRP
1.00000112
Team9.020037118

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYY

  • C. Schlittler
    92 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      50%·97.7 mph·23% whiff
    • FC
      22%·91.2 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      18%·83.3 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      5%·89.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      4%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Bird
    14 pitches·50% CSW
    • CU
      43%·81.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      29%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      29%·83.7 mph·100% whiff
  • L. Weaver
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      33%·87.6 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      17%·91.1 mph·50% whiff
  • T. Hill
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      90%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·90.3 mph·0% whiff

MIA

  • E. Perez
    88 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      59%·97.0 mph·18% whiff
    • SL
      17%·85.1 mph·83% whiff
    • CU
      9%·77.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      8%·80.3 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      7%·89.5 mph·50% whiff
  • C. Faucher
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • FC
      58%·92.2 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      17%·87.3 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      17%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      8%·86.8 mph·— whiff
  • T. Phillips
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • FS
      40%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      20%·84.2 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      10%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·94.1 mph·— whiff
  • R. Henriquez
    8 pitches·63% CSW
    • ST
      50%·84.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      38%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·88.3 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

Hits

4

0

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

MIA wins series 3-0

Aug 1NYYNYY12@MIAMIA13
Aug 2NYYNYY0@MIAMIA2today
Aug 3NYYNYY3@MIAMIA7

Season series

MIA leads series 2-0

Aug 1NYYNYY12@MIAMIA13
Aug 2NYYNYY0@MIAMIA2today
Aug 3NYYNYY3@MIAMIA7

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYY ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 10pp · Bottom 4th Inning

NYYNYY
G. Stanton

G. Stanton

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

C. Schlittler

C. Schlittler

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

MIAMIA
A. Ramirez

A. Ramirez

C

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-3 · 2 HR · 3.333 OPS

E. Perez

E. Perez

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

How it ended

MIA beat NYY 2-0.

Win probability

MIA vs NYY

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIABottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+10pp→ 63% WP

Ram · írez homered to left center (421 feet).

MIABottom 4th Inning · 0-2
+10pp→ 78% WP

Ram · írez homered to center (418 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYY0000000000
MIA10010000—2

Period scoring

NYY won 0 · MIA won 2

0
1

Inn 1

Ram 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Ram 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

NYY
MIA

Play-by-play · 467 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    NYY 0·MIA 2

  2. T9

    Bellinger grounded out to first.

    ·

    NYY 0·MIA 2

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 0·MIA 2

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYY 0·MIA 2

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYY 0·MIA 2

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYY 0·MIA 2

  7. T9

    Calvin Faucher pitches to Cody Bellinger

    ·

    NYY 0·MIA 2

  8. T9

    ·

    NYY 0·MIA 2

  9. T9

    Domínguez struck out swinging.

    ·

    NYY 0·MIA 2

    +3pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 0·MIA 2

  11. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    NYY 0·MIA 2

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYY 0·MIA 2

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYY 0·MIA 2

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYY 0·MIA 2

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 0·MIA 2

  16. T9

    Calvin Faucher pitches to Jasson Dominguez

    ·

    NYY 0·MIA 2

  17. T9

    ·

    NYY 0·MIA 2

  18. T9

    Grisham grounded out to second.

    ·

    NYY 0·MIA 2

    +2pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 0·MIA 2

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYY 0·MIA 2

  21. T9

    Calvin Faucher pitches to Trent Grisham

    ·

    NYY 0·MIA 2

  22. T9

    Faucher relieved Phillips

    · ·

    NYY 0·MIA 2

  23. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    NYY 0·MIA 2

  24. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    NYY 0·MIA 2

  25. B8

    ·

    NYY 0·MIA 2

  26. B8

    Stowers lined into double play, to first, Edwards doubled off first.

    · ·

    NYY 0·MIA 2

  27. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 0·MIA 2

  28. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 0·MIA 2

  29. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYY 0·MIA 2

  30. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYY 0·MIA 2

Team stats

NYY

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

0

Runs

2

2

Hits

4

0

Errors

0

3

TB

11

0

HR

2

3

BB

3

7

K

9

8

LOB

7

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Otto LopezMIA · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Xavier EdwardsMIA · 2B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

MIA vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 95 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.7± 3.3low
  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.4± 1.9low
  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.1± 2.4low

Hits

  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.6± 1.1high
  • Paul GoldschmidtNYY
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Trent GrishamNYY
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Otto LopezMIA
    2.3± 2.0high
  • Paul GoldschmidtNYY
    2.0± 2.0high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.9± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Paul GoldschmidtNYY
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.3± 3.6low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    2.6± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.1± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.8%

ensemble · MIA favored

  • Elo Static

    53.3%

    P(MIA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.8%

    P(MIA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.0%

    P(MIA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.64 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.