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Live · 4
  • MLBBot 2
    PHI 1@LAD 1
    +9.0ppmedium
  • MLBTop 4
    NYY 0@ATH 2
    +51.0pplow
  • MLBBot 3
    ARI 0@SEA 4
    +46.7pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    SF 0@COL 5
    +58.9pplow
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FINAL+7NYM
NYM

NYM

60-44

8
1
SF

SF

54-50

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California
41,163 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

NYM 8 · SF 1 (by 7)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SF +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYM2013000028
SF1000000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 70-49
62%Last 30 · 333-208
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Jul 25·Final/SeriesNYM win series 3-0

Recap · MLB

New York Mets went into San Francisco Giants and beat them, 8–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYM · top performer

NYM
Francisco Lindor

Francisco Lindor

SS

1.800OPS

5-3

AB-H

3

R

1

RBI

SF · top performer

SF
Heliot Ramos

Heliot Ramos

LF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · New York Mets at San Francisco Giants · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYM60-44
8
1
SF54-50
NYM60-44·SF54-50
NYM

NYM

60-44

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
2-55122002
SPRINT28.278
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
3-55331102
SPRINT26.941
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
2-55022001
SPRINT25.513
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
0-44001001
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
0-33000010
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
1-44110002
SPRINT26.735
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
1-44110001
SPRINT25.716
R. MauricioR. Mauricio★SS
1-22010010
T. TaylorT. Taylor★CF
0-44101001
Team10-363681071210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. HolmesC. Holmes★SP
5.0611120
H. BrazobanH. BrazobanRP
1.0200010
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
2.0000030
J. CastilloJ. CastilloRP
1.0100030
Team9.0911190
SF

SF

54-50

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
2-44120000
SPRINT27.251
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
1-44010002
SPRINT25.716
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
1-44011000
SPRINT27.457
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
0-33000011
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT2744
W. FloresW. Flores★1B
0-44000001
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
2-44020000
SPRINT27.148
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
1-44010002
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
1-44010002
Team9-3535191019
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. WebbL. Webb★SP
4.0866141
T. BeckT. BeckRP
2.0000120
M. GageM. GageRP
1.0000010
S. BivensS. BivensRP
1.0000000
C. DovalC. DovalRP
1.0222030
Team9.010882101

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

9

8

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

NYM win series 3-0

Jul 26NYMNYM8@SFSF1today
Jul 27NYMNYM2@SFSF1
Jul 27NYMNYM5@SFSF3

Season series

NYM lead series 1-0

Jul 26NYMNYM8@SFSF1today
Jul 27NYMNYM2@SFSF1
Jul 27NYMNYM5@SFSF3
Aug 1SFSF4@NYMNYM3
Aug 2SFSF6@NYMNYM12
Aug 3SFSF12@NYMNYM4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYM ↔ SF

Biggest swing: 12pp · Bottom 1st Inning

NYMNYM
F. Lindor

F. Lindor

SS

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.800 OPS

C. Holmes

C. Holmes

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

SFSF
H. Ramos

H. Ramos

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.000 OPS

L. Webb

L. Webb

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 6 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

How it ended

NYM beat SF 8-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

SF vs NYM

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFBottom 1st Inning · 2-0
+12pp→ 55% WP

Devers · doubled to right, Ramos to third.

NYMTop 3rd Inning · 3-1
+12pp→ 68% WP

Lindor · homered to right (377 feet).

NYMBottom 3rd Inning · 3-1
+10pp→ 71% WP

Devers · grounded into double play, third to shortstop to first, Ramos out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYM2013000028
SF1000000001

Period scoring

NYM won 4 · SF won 0

2
1

Inn 1

Soto 1

Adames 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Lindor 1

3
0

Inn 4

Nimmo 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

2
0

Inn 9

Soto 2

NYM
SF

Play-by-play · 605 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    NYM 8·SF 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    NYM 8·SF 1

  3. B9

    Bailey struck out swinging.

    · ·

    NYM 8·SF 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 8·SF 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 8·SF 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 8·SF 1

  7. B9

    Jose Castillo pitches to Patrick Bailey

    · ·

    NYM 8·SF 1

  8. B9

    · ·

    NYM 8·SF 1

  9. B9

    Schmitt struck out swinging.

    · ·

    NYM 8·SF 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 8·SF 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 8·SF 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 8·SF 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 8·SF 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYM 8·SF 1

  15. B9

    Jose Castillo pitches to Casey Schmitt

    · ·

    NYM 8·SF 1

  16. B9

    ·

    NYM 8·SF 1

  17. B9

    Lee singled to center.

    ·

    NYM 8·SF 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 8·SF 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYM 8·SF 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYM 8·SF 1

  21. B9

    Jose Castillo pitches to Jung Hoo Lee

    ·

    NYM 8·SF 1

  22. B9

    ·

    NYM 8·SF 1

  23. B9

    Flores struck out looking.

    ·

    NYM 8·SF 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    NYM 8·SF 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYM 8·SF 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYM 8·SF 1

  27. B9

    Jose Castillo pitches to Wilmer Flores

    ·

    NYM 8·SF 1

  28. B9

    Castillo relieved Garcia

    ·

    NYM 8·SF 1

  29. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    NYM 8·SF 1

  30. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    NYM 8·SF 1

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

SF

Home

8

Runs

1

10

Hits

9

0

Errors

0

16

TB

12

1

HR

0

2

BB

1

10

K

9

13

LOB

18

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 14 players in cohort
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

SF vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 61 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • Jung Hoo LeeSF
    1.3± 1.1high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.3± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Logan WebbSF
    3.1± 2.6low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.9%

ensemble · NYM favored

  • Elo Static

    50.1%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.5%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.5%

    P(SF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.59 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 31, 25sim 98
    136
    3(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 97
    127
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 22, 25sim 96
    253
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 95
    184
    10(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 4, 25sim 95
    193
    23(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 8, 25sim 94
    185
    10(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs