HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 9
  • MLBTop 7
    STL 4@MIN 4
    -2.2pppeak
  • MLBTop 3
    COL 0@ATH 0
    -18.1pphigh
  • MLBTop 2
    CHC 0@SF 0
    -12.4pphigh
  • MLBBot 9
    ARI 5@CIN 2
    -51.8pplow
  • MLBEnd 6
    ATL 3@NYM 7
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBBot 4
    TB 0@LAA 4
    +62.6pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    SEA 8@WSH 1
    -47.4pplow
  • WNBA7:03 - 2nd
    GS 26@SEA 27
    +9.2pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2PIT
LAD

LAD

78-62

3
5
PIT

PIT

64-77

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
20,563 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAD

LAD

league avg

PIT

PIT

.785

OPS

◀

.715

.739

.345

OBP

◀

.319

.334

5.36

Runs / G

◀

4.50

5.06

3.36

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.26

1.10

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.31

9.1

K / 9

8.5

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

LAD 3 · PIT 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD0000000033
PIT001040005

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

68%Last 7 · 67-32
62%Last 30 · 305-190
Receipts →
MLB·Thu, Sep 4·Final/SeriesPIT wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates held off Los Angeles Dodgers, 5–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1B. SnellLAD−37.5pp
  2. 2B. ReynoldsPIT+32.7pp
  3. 3N. GonzalesPIT+15.2pp

LAD · top performer

LAD
Mookie Betts

Mookie Betts

SS

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

PIT · top performer

PIT
Bryan Reynolds

Bryan Reynolds

LF

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniDH
.2793000012
M. BettsSS
.2504111100
F. Freeman1B
.2944000001
T. HernándezLF
.2464110002
M. ConfortoDH
.1924120002
A. PagesCF
.2724011001
H. KimSS
.2944000001
M. RojasSS
.2614021000
D. RushingC
.1933010002
- J. DeanCF
.0000000000
- B. RortvedtC
.0001000001
Team353831112

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
B. SnellSP
5.09553690
E. HenriquezRP
1.00000113
K. YatesRP
1.00000314
J. DreyerRP
1.00000111
Team8.0955311128

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
J. TrioloSS
.2264120000
N. Gonzales3B
.2794110001
B. ReynoldsLF
.2463221011
T. PhamLF
.2644011002
A. McCutchenDH
.2453100012
N. Yorke3B
.4003012000
A. CanarioLF
.2124011001
H. DavisC
.1683000012
C. DevanneySS
.1543010002
- S. Horwitz1B
.2561000000
Team325950311

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
P. SkenesSP
6.02001894
Y. RamirezRP
1.21000222
E. SiskRP
0.1000005
D. MoretaRP
0.14330126
C. HoldermanRP
0.2100016
Team9.0833112153

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAD

  • B. Snell
    90 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      39%·94.5 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      29%·79.3 mph·46% whiff
    • CH
      27%·84.6 mph·46% whiff
    • SL
      6%·87.1 mph·— whiff
  • K. Yates
    14 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      64%·92.3 mph·20% whiff
    • FS
      36%·85.7 mph·100% whiff
  • E. Henriquez
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      38%·100.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      31%·90.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      23%·94.8 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      8%·101.4 mph·— whiff
  • J. Dreyer
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      73%·92.6 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      27%·87.9 mph·100% whiff

PIT

  • P. Skenes
    94 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      40%·98.4 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      16%·90.7 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      14%·85.8 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      14%·85.0 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      11%·97.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      3%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      2%·87.4 mph·— whiff
  • D. Moreta
    26 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.5 mph·29% whiff
    • SL
      50%·83.7 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Ramirez
    22 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      45%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      32%·83.3 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      18%·84.9 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      5%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Holderman
    6 pitches·67% CSW
    • SI
      67%·97.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      17%·91.0 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      17%·82.9 mph·100% whiff
  • E. Sisk
    5 pitches·40% CSW
    • SI
      60%·88.9 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      40%·80.6 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

9

3

Runs

5

1

Errors

0

Current series

PIT wins series 3-0

Sep 2LADLAD7@PITPIT9
Sep 3LADLAD0@PITPIT3
Sep 4LADLAD3@PITPIT5today

Season series

PIT wins series 4-2

Apr 26PITPIT3@LADLAD0
Apr 27PITPIT4@LADLAD8
Apr 27PITPIT2@LADLAD9
Sep 2LADLAD7@PITPIT9
Sep 3LADLAD0@PITPIT3
Sep 4LADLAD3@PITPIT5today

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ PIT

Biggest swing: 13pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

LADLAD
M. Betts

M. Betts

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

B. Snell

B. Snell

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 5 ER · 9 H · 3 BB

PITPIT
B. Reynolds

B. Reynolds

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 2 R · 1.417 OPS

P. Skenes

P. Skenes

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

How it ended

PIT beat LAD 5-3.

Win probability

PIT vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITBottom 3rd Inning · 0-1
+13pp→ 65% WP

Pham · singled to left, Reynolds scored.

PITBottom 5th Inning · 0-2
+12pp→ 86% WP

Reynolds · singled to left, Triolo scored, Reynolds to second, N. Gonzales to third.

PITBottom 5th Inning · 0-4
+10pp→ 94% WP

Yorke · doubled to left, N. Gonzales scored and Reynolds scored, McCutchen to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD0000000033
PIT00104000—5

Period scoring

LAD won 0 · PIT won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Pham 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
4

Inn 5

Yorke 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

3

Inn 9

Betts 1

LAD
PIT

Play-by-play · 549 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    LAD 3·PIT 5

  2. T9

    Rortvedt struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    LAD 3·PIT 5

    +6pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    LAD 3·PIT 5

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 3·PIT 5

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 3·PIT 5

  6. T9

    Colin Holderman pitches to Ben Rortvedt

    · ·

    LAD 3·PIT 5

  7. T9

    Dean ran for Rojas

    ·

    LAD 3·PIT 5

  8. T9

    · ·

    LAD 3·PIT 5

  9. T9

    Rojas singled to left, Conforto scored, Pages to second.

    · ·

    LAD 3·PIT 5

    −3pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 3·PIT 5

  11. T9

    Colin Holderman pitches to Miguel Rojas

    · ·

    LAD 3·PIT 5

  12. T9

    · ·

    LAD 2·PIT 5

  13. T9

    Kim lined out to left.

    · ·

    LAD 2·PIT 5

    +5pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 2·PIT 5

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 2·PIT 5

  16. T9

    Colin Holderman pitches to Hyeseong Kim

    · ·

    LAD 2·PIT 5

  17. T9

    Holderman relieved Moreta

    ·

    LAD 2·PIT 5

  18. T9

    · ·

    LAD 2·PIT 5

  19. T9

    Pages reached on infield single to shortstop, T. Hernández scored, Conforto to second.

    · ·

    LAD 2·PIT 5

    −4pp

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 2·PIT 5

  21. T9

    Dauri Moreta pitches to Andy Pages

    · ·

    LAD 2·PIT 5

  22. T9

    · ·

    LAD 1·PIT 5

  23. T9

    Conforto singled to center, T. Hernández to third.

    · ·

    LAD 1·PIT 5

    −2pp

  24. T9

    Pitch 9 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    LAD 1·PIT 5

  25. T9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 1·PIT 5

  26. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    · ·

    LAD 1·PIT 5

  27. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 1·PIT 5

  28. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    LAD 1·PIT 5

  29. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    LAD 1·PIT 5

  30. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    LAD 1·PIT 5

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

3

Runs

5

8

Hits

9

1

Errors

0

12

TB

10

1

HR

0

1

BB

3

12

K

11

9

LOB

15

Player projections

PIT vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.8± 3.2low
  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.7low
  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    6.3± 3.0low

Hits

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    1.5± 0.9high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    1.3± 1.0high
  • Jake MangumPIT
    1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    2.8± 1.7high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.0± 1.3high
  • Freddie FreemanLAD
    2.0± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Ryan WardLAD
    1.1± 1.6low
  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    0.8± 1.0high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Mitch KellerPIT
    3.5± 3.0low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.0± 2.7low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

44.0%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    49.7%

    P(PIT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.2%

    P(PIT win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.4%

    P(PIT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Jared TrioloPIT · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Hyeseong KimLAD · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Andy PagesLAD · CF
    SPRINT28.175