MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5SEA

SEA

56-49

LAA

50-55

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California

40,836 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.5%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
48.8%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
48.4%
P(LAA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
48.8%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.19 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAA vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

117

projections · 63 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
7.0± 4.0low
Jose SorianoLAA
5.8± 2.5low
Bryan WooSEA
5.8± 4.0low

Hits

Wade MecklerLAA
1.1± 1.4medium
Cole YoungSEA
1.1± 0.8high
Jhonny PeredaSEA
1.1± 0.7medium

Total bases

Wade MecklerLAA
1.9± 2.3medium
Zach NetoLAA
1.9± 1.8high
Colt EmersonSEA
1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

Jose SiriLAA
0.8± 1.5medium
Wade MecklerLAA
0.8± 1.6medium
Trey ManciniLAA
0.7± 0.8low

Earned runs

Grayson RodriguezLAA
4.2± 3.8low
Bryan WooSEA
3.1± 3.9low
George KirbySEA
2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

league avg

LAA

.717

OPS

◀

.715

.705

.318

OBP

.319

.317

4.30

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.46

3.58

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.65

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.43

8.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

SEA 7 · LAA 2 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SEA	0	0	1	1	0	4	0	1	0	7
LAA	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J.P. CrawfordSS	.273	5	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. RodriguezCF	.258	5	1	2	1	1	0	0
C. RaleighC	.257	5	1	2	1	1	0	3
R. ArozarenaLF	.249	4	2	1	1	1	1	1
J. Naylor1B	.286	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. Polanco1B	.253	3	2	1	0	0	1	0
M. GarverC	.229	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. CanzoneDH	.291	4	0	1	2	0	0	1
B. Williamson2B	.254	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
Team		37	7	11	7	3	3	6

Player

AVG

RBI

.273

.258

.257

.249

.286

.253

.229

.291

.254

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
G. KirbySP	6.0	5	2	2	3	9	106
T. ThorntonRP	2.0	2	0	0	0	1	21
C. VargasRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	5
Team	9.0	7	2	2	3	10	132

Player

G. KirbySP

6.0

106

T. ThorntonRP

2.0

C. VargasRP

1.0

Team

9.0

132

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
Z. NetoSS	.276	2	0	0	1	0	1	1
M. TroutCF	.233	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
N. Schanuel1B	.279	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
T. WardLF	.233	4	1	2	1	1	0	2
J. AdellRF	.235	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
Y. Moncada3B	.216	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. O'HoppeC	.243	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
L. Rengifo3B	.241	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. Wade Jr.1B	.169	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. Newman3B	.208	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	2	7	2	1	3	10

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
T. AndersonSP	4.2	6	2	2	0	1	88
S. BachmanRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. FerminRP	0.0	1	3	3	2	0	15
C. BrogdonRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	20
C. FulmerRP	3.0	2	1	1	0	4	42
Team	9.0	11	7	7	3	6	167

Team

SEA

LAA

3 sub-models, blended.

LAA vs SEA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

LAA vs SEA.

3 sub-models, blended.