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FINAL+3TEX
TEX

TEX

57-52

6
3
LAA

LAA

53-56

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California
27,162 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

TEX 6 · LAA 3 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TEX +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TEX0001010406
LAA0001000203

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

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Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

57%Last 7 · 69-51
61%Last 30 · 332-210
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Jul 30·Final/SeriesLAA win series 4-3

Recap · MLB

Texas Rangers went into Los Angeles Angels and beat them, 6–3.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TEX · top performer

TEX
Marcus Semien

Marcus Semien

2B

1.200OPS

5-3

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

LAA · top performer

LAA
Nolan Schanuel

Nolan Schanuel

1B

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Final
TEX57-52
6
3
LAA53-56
TEX57-52·LAA53-56
TEX

TEX

57-52

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
0-44000011
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
1-55110003
SPRINT24.96
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
3-55231000
SPRINT28.175
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
1-55112101
SPRINT26.735
W. LangfordW. Langford★LF
2-55121001
SPRINT2872
K. HigashiokaK. Higashioka★C
2-44120001
SPRINT23.91
E. CarterE. Carter★CF
1-33011010
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
1-44010002
J. HeimJ. Heim★C
0-33001011
Team11-383861161310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. EovaldiN. Eovaldi★SP
7.0611240
H. MilnerH. MilnerRP
0.1222011
S. ArmstrongS. ArmstrongRP
0.2000010
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
1.0000020
Team9.0833281
LAA

LAA

53-56

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. NetoZ. Neto★SS
1-44010001
M. TroutM. Trout★CF
1-44110002
SPRINT28.688
N. SchanuelN. Schanuel★1B
1-44112101
SPRINT25.920
T. WardT. Ward★LF
2-44020000
SPRINT27.457
J. AdellJ. Adell★RF
0-44000000
Y. MoncadaY. Moncada★3B
1-44110002
SPRINT26.735
L. O'HoppeL. O'Hoppe★C
0-22000021
L. RengifoL. Rengifo★3B
2-44021000
SPRINT27.148
G. CamperoG. Campero★OF
0-44000001
Team8-3434383128
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. SorianoJ. Soriano★SP
7.0521270
R. DetmersR. DetmersSP
0.2233021
C. FulmerC. FulmerRP
1.1100010
Team9.011653101

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

8

6

Runs

3

1

Errors

1

Current series

LAA win series 4-3

Jul 8TEXTEX5@LAALAA6
Jul 9TEXTEX13@LAALAA1
Jul 10TEXTEX8@LAALAA11
Jul 11TEXTEX11@LAALAA4
Jul 29TEXTEX4@LAALAA6
Jul 30TEXTEX5@LAALAA8
Jul 31TEXTEX6@LAALAA3today

Season series

TEX leads series 6-4

Apr 16LAALAA0@TEXTEX4
Apr 17LAALAA1@TEXTEX3
Apr 18LAALAA3@TEXTEX5
Jul 8TEXTEX5@LAALAA6
Jul 9TEXTEX13@LAALAA1
Jul 10TEXTEX8@LAALAA11
Jul 11TEXTEX11@LAALAA4
Jul 29TEXTEX4@LAALAA6
Jul 30TEXTEX5@LAALAA8
Jul 31TEXTEX6@LAALAA3today
Aug 26LAALAA4@TEXTEX0
Aug 27LAALAA3@TEXTEX7
Aug 28LAALAA3@TEXTEX20

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTEX ↔ LAA

Biggest swing: 20pp · Top 8th Inning

TEXTEX
M. Semien

M. Semien

2B

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 2 R · 1.200 OPS

N. Eovaldi

N. Eovaldi

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

LAALAA
N. Schanuel

N. Schanuel

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

J. Soriano

J. Soriano

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

TEX beat LAA 6-3. A. Garc's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

LAA vs TEX

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TEXTop 4th Inning · 0-0
+16pp→ 62% WP

Semien · doubled to left.

LAABottom 4th Inning · 1-1
+15pp→ 50% WP

Rengifo · singled to center, Moncada scored, O'Hoppe to third.

TEXTop 8th Inning · 4-1
+20pp→ 92% WP

A. Garc · ía homered to left (375 feet), Semien scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TEX0001010406
LAA0001000203

Period scoring

TEX won 2 · LAA won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
1

Inn 4

Langford 1

Rengifo 1

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Semien 1

0
0

Inn 7

4
2

Inn 8

Garc 2

Schanuel 2

0
0

Inn 9

TEX
LAA

Play-by-play · 568 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    TEX 6·LAA 3

  2. B9

    ·

    TEX 6·LAA 3

  3. B9

    Campero struck out swinging.

    ·

    TEX 6·LAA 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TEX 6·LAA 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    TEX 6·LAA 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TEX 6·LAA 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 6·LAA 3

  8. B9

    Robert Garcia pitches to Gustavo Campero

    · ·

    TEX 6·LAA 3

  9. B9

    ·

    TEX 6·LAA 3

  10. B9

    Rengifo flied out to center.

    ·

    TEX 6·LAA 3

    −1pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 6·LAA 3

  12. B9

    Robert Garcia pitches to Luis Rengifo

    · ·

    TEX 6·LAA 3

  13. B9

    ·

    TEX 6·LAA 3

  14. B9

    O'Hoppe struck out swinging.

    ·

    TEX 6·LAA 3

    −2pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    TEX 6·LAA 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 6·LAA 3

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 6·LAA 3

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    TEX 6·LAA 3

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    TEX 6·LAA 3

  20. B9

    Robert Garcia pitches to Logan O'Hoppe

    · ·

    TEX 6·LAA 3

  21. B9

    R. Garcia relieved Armstrong

    · ·

    TEX 6·LAA 3

  22. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    TEX 6·LAA 3

  23. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    TEX 6·LAA 3

  24. T9

    · ·

    TEX 6·LAA 3

  25. T9

    Langford grounded out to third.

    · ·

    TEX 6·LAA 3

  26. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    TEX 6·LAA 3

  27. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    TEX 6·LAA 3

  28. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 6·LAA 3

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    TEX 6·LAA 3

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 6·LAA 3

Team stats

TEX

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

6

Runs

3

11

Hits

8

1

Errors

1

18

TB

11

1

HR

1

3

BB

2

10

K

8

17

LOB

13

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Mike TroutLAA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Evan CarterTEX · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Wyatt LangfordTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

LAA vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Reid DetmersLAA
    6.7± 4.4low
  • Jose SorianoLAA
    6.6± 2.9low
  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low

Hits

  • Zach NetoLAA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Zach NetoLAA
    2.1± 2.5high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high
  • Joc PedersonTEX
    1.9± 3.0high

RBIs

  • Vaughn GrissomLAA
    1.0± 1.9high
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Mike TroutLAA
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Grayson RodriguezLAA
    4.0± 4.0low
  • Jack KochanowiczLAA
    3.0± 2.9low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.5%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    49.2%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    46.2%

    P(LAA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.0%

    P(LAA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.36 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 26, 25sim 98
    218
    26(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 9, 25sim 96
    184
    10(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 96
    127
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 4, 25sim 95
    193
    23(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 95
    215
    26(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 22, 25sim 95
    186
    29(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs