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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3KC
CLE

CLE

52-53

1
4
KC

KC

52-54

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
16,590 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

CLE 1 · KC 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked KC +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CLE0000001001
KC200110004

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

59%Last 7 · 68-48
62%Last 30 · 331-207
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 26, 25sim 98
    253
    24(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 26, 25sim 97
    53
    7(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 29, 25sim 95
    285
    24(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 6, 25sim 95
    54
    21(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 25, 25sim 95
    250
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 5, 25sim 95
    53
    21(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, Jul 27·Final/Seriestied 3-3

Recap · MLB

Kansas City Royals held off Cleveland Guardians, 4–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CLE · top performer

CLE
Gabriel Arias

Gabriel Arias

SS

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Maikel Garcia

Maikel Garcia

3B

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CLE52-53
1
4
KC52-54
CLE52-53·KC52-54
CLE

CLE

52-53

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
1-44010000
SPRINT26.530
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
0-33000003
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
1-44010000
SPRINT27.251
D. FryD. Fry★RF
0-22000001
C. SantanaC. Santana★1B
1-44010001
G. AriasG. Arias★SS
2-44121101
SPRINT26.530
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★RF
0-33000002
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
1-33010010
B. NaylorB. Naylor★C
0-44000001
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo1B
1-22010000
SPRINT25.411
N. JonesN. JonesRF
0-11000000
Team7-3434171119
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. CantilloJ. Cantillo★SP
4.0333440
M. FestaM. FestaRP
2.0111021
J. JunisJ. JunisRP
1.0000300
K. AllardK. AllardRP
1.0000020
Team8.0444781
KC

KC

52-54

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. IndiaJ. India★2B
0-33100010
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
1-33110012
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
0-22001020
SPRINT25.411
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
1-33112110
SPRINT27.765
S. PerezS. Perez★C
0-44000002
R. GrichukR. Grichuk★RF
1-44010000
JJ. Rave★RF
0-33100012
L. MaileL. Maile★C
1-33011001
T. TolbertT. Tolbert★2B
0-22000001
Team4-2727444178
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. CameronN. Cameron★SP
5.0300160
H. HarveyH. HarveyRP
1.0000000
A. ZerpaA. ZerpaRP
1.0211021
L. ErcegL. ErcegRP
1.0100010
C. EstevezC. EstevezRP
1.0100000
Team9.0711191

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CLE

  • J. Cantillo
    76 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      41%·88.8 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      26%·76.6 mph·43% whiff
    • SL
      17%·82.9 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      16%·75.1 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Festa
    26 pitches·27% CSW
    • ST
      58%·82.7 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      31%·91.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      8%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      4%·91.1 mph·— whiff
  • J. Junis
    24 pitches·17% CSW
    • SL
      33%·82.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      29%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·90.6 mph·— whiff
  • K. Allard
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      45%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      27%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·81.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      9%·70.5 mph·100% whiff

KC

  • N. Cameron
    83 pitches·25% CSW
    • CU
      30%·79.7 mph·45% whiff
    • FC
      24%·87.0 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      18%·80.2 mph·57% whiff
    • FF
      18%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·81.9 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Erceg
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • SL
      38%·84.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      31%·97.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      19%·96.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·87.7 mph·— whiff
  • C. Estevez
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      67%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      13%·86.2 mph·— whiff
  • A. Zerpa
    14 pitches·50% CSW
    • SI
      57%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      21%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      21%·84.3 mph·— whiff
  • H. Harvey
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • CU
      36%·81.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      36%·88.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·97.0 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

4

1

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 3-3

Mar 27CLECLE7@KCKC4
Mar 29CLECLE3@KCKC4
Mar 30CLECLE6@KCKC2
Jul 26CLECLE0@KCKC0
Jul 26CLECLE3@KCKC5
Jul 26CLECLE6@KCKC4
Jul 27CLECLE1@KCKC4today

Season series

CLE leads series 5-4

Mar 27CLECLE7@KCKC4
Mar 29CLECLE3@KCKC4
Mar 30CLECLE6@KCKC2
Apr 11KCKC0@CLECLE7
Apr 12KCKC3@CLECLE6
Apr 13KCKC4@CLECLE2
Jul 26CLECLE0@KCKC0
Jul 26CLECLE3@KCKC5
Jul 26CLECLE6@KCKC4
Jul 27CLECLE1@KCKC4today
Sep 8KCKC2@CLECLE10
Sep 9KCKC0@CLECLE2
Sep 10KCKC4@CLECLE3
Sep 11KCKC2@CLECLE3

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCLE ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 10pp · Bottom 1st Inning

CLECLE
G. Arias

G. Arias

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

J. Cantillo

J. Cantillo

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 3 H · 4 BB

KCKC
M. Garcia

M. Garcia

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

N. Cameron

N. Cameron

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

KC beat CLE 4-1.

Win probability

KC vs CLE

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCTop 1st Inning · 0-0
+8pp→ 49% WP

Santana · struck out swinging.

KCBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+10pp→ 71% WP

Witt Jr. · doubled to right, India to third.

KCBottom 4th Inning · 0-3
+8pp→ 88% WP

Maile · doubled to left, Rave scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CLE0000001001
KC20011000—4

Period scoring

CLE won 1 · KC won 3

0
2

Inn 1

Pasquantino 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Maile 1

0
1

Inn 5

Garcia 1

0
0

Inn 6

1
0

Inn 7

Arias 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

CLE
KC

Play-by-play · 533 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    CLE 1·KC 4

  2. T9

    Naylor lined out to center.

    · ·

    CLE 1·KC 4

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CLE 1·KC 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 1·KC 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 1·KC 4

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CLE 1·KC 4

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CLE 1·KC 4

  8. T9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Bo Naylor

    · ·

    CLE 1·KC 4

  9. T9

    · ·

    CLE 1·KC 4

  10. T9

    Rocchio flied out to center, Arias to third.

    · ·

    CLE 1·KC 4

    +2pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CLE 1·KC 4

  12. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    CLE 1·KC 4

  13. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 1·KC 4

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CLE 1·KC 4

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 1·KC 4

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CLE 1·KC 4

  17. T9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Brayan Rocchio

    · ·

    CLE 1·KC 4

  18. T9

    · ·

    CLE 1·KC 4

  19. T9

    Jones fouled out to third.

    · ·

    CLE 1·KC 4

    +3pp

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CLE 1·KC 4

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 1·KC 4

  22. T9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Nolan Jones

    · ·

    CLE 1·KC 4

  23. T9

    Jones hit for Rodríguez

    ·

    CLE 1·KC 4

  24. T9

    ·

    CLE 1·KC 4

  25. T9

    Arias doubled to center.

    ·

    CLE 1·KC 4

    −4pp

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 1·KC 4

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CLE 1·KC 4

  28. T9

    Carlos Estevez pitches to Gabriel Arias

    ·

    CLE 1·KC 4

  29. T9

    Estévez relieved Erceg

    ·

    CLE 1·KC 4

  30. T9

    Rave in right field.

    CLE 1·KC 4

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

KC

Home

1

Runs

4

7

Hits

4

0

Errors

0

11

TB

9

1

HR

1

1

BB

7

9

K

8

20

LOB

11

Player projections

KC vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low

Hits

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Brayan RocchioCLE
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Kyle ManzardoCLE
    1.6± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Angel MartinezCLE
    0.5± 0.5high
  • Jose RamirezCLE
    0.5± 0.7high
  • Rhys HoskinsCLE
    0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.3%

ensemble · KC favored

  • Elo Static

    53.3%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.6%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.2%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.17 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 13 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+