HomeScoresLiveTonight's picks
Live · 9
  • MLBEnd 2
    COL 0@ATH 0
    -12.8pphigh
  • MLBTop 2
    CHC 0@SF 0
    -12.4pphigh
  • MLBTop 7
    STL 3@MIN 4
    +41.4ppmedium
  • MLBMid 9
    ARI 5@CIN 2
    -51.8pplow
  • MLBBot 6
    ATL 3@NYM 7
    +58.9pplow
  • MLBTop 8
    HOU 9@KC 5
    -49.3pplow
  • MLBBot 4
    TB 0@LAA 4
    +62.6pplow
  • MLBTop 6
    SEA 8@WSH 1
    -47.4pplow
  • WNBA7:54 - 2nd
    GS 26@SEA 25
    +3.4pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2SD
SD

SD

56-49

3
1
STL

STL

54-52

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
25,699 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SD

SD

league avg

STL

STL

.650

OPS

.715

▶

.715

.291

OBP

.319

▶

.322

3.79

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.49

3.95

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.04

1.29

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.33

8.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SD 3 · STL 1 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked STL +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SD0101000013
STL0100000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

68%Last 7 · 67-32
62%Last 30 · 305-190
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Jul 26·Final/Seriestied 2-2

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres went into St. Louis Cardinals and beat them, 3–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1B. JohnsonSD+26.1pp
  2. 2J. CronenworthSD+23.5pp
  3. 3I. HerreraSTL−21.6pp

SD · top performer

SD
Bryce Johnson

Bryce Johnson

RF

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

STL · top performer

STL
Jordan Walker

Jordan Walker

RF

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.RF
.2664001010
L. Arraez2B
.2874010000
M. Machado3B
.2943020000
J. MerrillCF
.2615010002
X. BogaertsSS
.2664000000
J. Cronenworth2B
.2373210002
J. Iglesias2B
.2334000001
B. JohnsonRF
.3434131001
M. MaldonadoC
.1962010010
Team33392026

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
R. VasquezSP
4.21111267
A. MorejonRP
1.01000011
J. EstradaRP
1.11000220
J. AdamRP
1.00001015
R. SuarezRP
1.00000117
Team9.031125130

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
B. Donovan3B
.2903000010
I. HerreraDH
.3124000000
A. Burleson1B
.2854010003
W. Contreras1B
.2642000001
N. Arenado3B
.2373100010
M. WinnSS
.2674010000
J. WalkerRF
.2253011000
P. PagesC
.2022000000
V. Scott IICF
.2273000000
- Y. PozoC
.2981000001
Team29131025

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
M. LiberatoreSP
4.16212377
K. LeahySP
2.21000230
R. O'BrienRP
1.00000115
A. GranilloRP
0.22110013
J. KingRP
0.1000001
Team9.093226136

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SD

  • R. Vasquez
    67 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      46%·94.4 mph·11% whiff
    • FC
      25%·91.2 mph·38% whiff
    • FF
      10%·95.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      6%·83.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      4%·82.8 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      4%·84.9 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      3%·86.6 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Estrada
    20 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      50%·98.3 mph·13% whiff
    • FS
      30%·83.3 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      20%·89.2 mph·100% whiff
  • R. Suarez
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      65%·98.8 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      35%·90.1 mph·67% whiff
  • J. Adam
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • SL
      47%·83.8 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      27%·88.5 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      20%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      7%·80.0 mph·— whiff
  • A. Morejon
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      73%·98.4 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      18%·90.8 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      9%·88.8 mph·— whiff

STL

  • M. Liberatore
    77 pitches·23% CSW
    • SL
      30%·86.5 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      29%·93.6 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      17%·76.5 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      13%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      12%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Leahy
    30 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      40%·95.5 mph·11% whiff
    • CU
      27%·84.4 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      20%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      3%·94.8 mph·— whiff
  • R. O'Brien
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      60%·98.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      40%·90.9 mph·50% whiff
  • A. Granillo
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • SL
      69%·83.6 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      31%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. King
    1 pitches·0% CSW
    • SL
      100%·83.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

3

3

Runs

1

0

Errors

1

Current series

Series tied 2-2

Jul 24SDSD7@STLSTL9
Jul 25SDSD0@STLSTL3
Jul 26SDSD3@STLSTL1today
Jul 27SDSD9@STLSTL2

Season series

STL leads series 2-1

Jul 24SDSD7@STLSTL9
Jul 25SDSD0@STLSTL3
Jul 26SDSD3@STLSTL1today
Jul 27SDSD9@STLSTL2
Aug 2STLSTL1@SDSD4
Aug 3STLSTL8@SDSD5
Aug 3STLSTL3@SDSD7

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSD ↔ STL

Biggest swing: 16pp · Bottom 8th Inning

SDSD
B. Johnson

B. Johnson

RF

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1 R · 1.500 OPS

R. Vasquez

R. Vasquez

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 1 H · 1 BB

STLSTL
J. Walker

J. Walker

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

M. Liberatore

M. Liberatore

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

SD beat STL 3-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

STL vs SD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SDTop 2nd Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 52% WP

Johnson · singled to center, Cronenworth scored on fielding error by center fielder Scott II.

STLBottom 2nd Inning · 1-1
+14pp→ 60% WP

Walker · doubled to center, Arenado scored.

SDBottom 8th Inning · 2-1
+16pp→ 82% WP

Herrera · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Donovan out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SD0101000013
STL0100000001

Period scoring

SD won 2 · STL won 0

0
0

Inn 1

1
1

Inn 2

Johnson 1

Walker 1

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Johnson 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

Jr. 1

SD
STL

Play-by-play · 535 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SD 3·STL 1

  2. B9

    ·

    SD 3·STL 1

  3. B9

    Winn grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Contreras out at second.

    · ·

    SD 3·STL 1

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SD 3·STL 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SD 3·STL 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SD 3·STL 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SD 3·STL 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SD 3·STL 1

  9. B9

    Robert Suarez pitches to Masyn Winn

    · ·

    SD 3·STL 1

  10. B9

    · ·

    SD 3·STL 1

  11. B9

    Arenado flied out to right.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SD 3·STL 1

    −6pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SD 3·STL 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    SD 3·STL 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SD 3·STL 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    SD 3·STL 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - Pitch Timer Violation 1

    · ·

    SD 3·STL 1

  17. B9

    Robert Suarez pitches to Nolan Arenado

    · ·

    SD 3·STL 1

  18. B9

    ·

    SD 3·STL 1

  19. B9

    Contreras hit by pitch.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    SD 3·STL 1

    +6pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SD 3·STL 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SD 3·STL 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    SD 3·STL 1

  23. B9

    Robert Suarez pitches to Willson Contreras

    ·

    SD 3·STL 1

  24. B9

    ·

    SD 3·STL 1

  25. B9

    Burleson struck out swinging.

    ·

    SD 3·STL 1

    −5pp

  26. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    SD 3·STL 1

  27. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    SD 3·STL 1

  28. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 3·STL 1

  29. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SD 3·STL 1

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    SD 3·STL 1

Team stats

SD

Away

Stat

STL

Home

3

Runs

1

9

Hits

3

0

Errors

1

12

TB

4

0

HR

0

2

BB

2

6

K

5

18

LOB

10

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Jake CronenworthSD · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Masyn WinnSTL · SS
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

STL vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Dustin MaySTL
    5.3± 3.4low
  • Michael KingSD
    5.2± 2.9low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    4.9± 3.5low

Hits

  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Alec BurlesonSTL
    1.3± 0.5high

Total bases

  • Alec BurlesonSTL
    2.6± 1.8high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    2.4± 1.9high
  • Lars NootbaarSTL
    2.2± 3.5low

RBIs

  • Samad TaylorSD
    1.0± 1.6low
  • Alec BurlesonSTL
    1.0± 1.1high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.9± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.3± 2.8low
  • Yu DarvishSD
    2.6± 1.2medium
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.6± 2.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.8%

ensemble · STL favored

  • Elo Static

    53.0%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.5%

    P(STL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.0%

    P(STL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.09 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.