HomeScoresLiveTonight's picksPlay
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
LAST NIGHT · MLBW. Castro (COL): 4 H · 2 HR · 7 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 96
LAST NIGHT · MLBH. Goodman (COL): 5 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over ATH — Standout Index 95
TRANSACTION · MLBAngels: Sent 2B Vaughn Grissom on a rehab assignment to Rancho Cucamonga (CAL) (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · MLBL. Webb (SF): 8.0 IP · 7 K in a win over CHC
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Meyer (MIA): 6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER in a win over PIT
TRANSACTION · MLBPhillies: Agreed to terms with 2B Luke Ritter on a minor league contract (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Gray (ATL): 26 PTS · 3 REB · 7 AST in a win over TOR
LAST NIGHT · WNBAA. Reese (ATL): 15 PTS · 17 REB · 1 AST in a win over TOR
TRANSACTION · MLBRangers: Placed CF Michael Helman on the 10-day IL (Jun 14)
LAST NIGHT · NHLB. Bussi (CAR): 22 SV in a win over VGK
TRANSACTION · WNBAWings: Signed G Sug Sutton to a rest-of-season contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NHLBruins: Signed F Attilio Biasca to a two-year contract (Jun 14)
TRANSACTION · NFLBills: Signed T/G Jude Bowry to a four-year contract (Jun 14)
TONIGHT · WNBAPOR @ MIN, 6/15 - 8:00 PM EDT — MIN -13.5
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THE ONE Analytics
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MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+5MIA
MIA

MIA

51-55

5
0
STL

STL

55-54

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
20,523 attended

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

MIA

league avg

STL

STL

.706

OPS

.717

▶

.723

.323

OBP

.319

.323

4.31

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.62

4.07

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.15

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.34

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

MIA 5 · STL 0 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked STL +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIA0200120005
STL0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 62-41
61%Last 30 · 300-195
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Jul 29·Final/SeriesMIA wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Miami Marlins went into St. Louis Cardinals and beat them, 5–0.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1S. GraySTL−41.3pp
  2. 2A. BurlesonSTL−21.2pp
  3. 3T. JohnstonMIA+18.2pp

MIA · top performer

MIA
Graham Pauley

Graham Pauley

3B

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

STL · top performer

STL
Jordan Walker

Jordan Walker

RF

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
X. Edwards2B
.2955021000
J. SanchezRF
.2525000002
A. RamirezC
.2385010000
K. StowersLF
.3023120011
O. LopezSS
.2494021000
L. HicksC
.2594000001
T. JohnstonRF
.5002110000
J. Sanoja3B
.2404010000
G. Pauley3B
.2242112101
- D. MyersCF
.2572110000
- E. Wagaman1B
.2362111000
Team385125115

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
S. AlcantaraSP
5.03003494
C. FaucherRP
1.01001220
R. HenriquezRP
1.00000111
V. BellozoRP
2.00001328
Team9.0400510153

Batters

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerAVGABRHRBIHRBBK
M. WinnSS
.2703000001
I. HerreraDH
.3052000012
A. Burleson1B
.2863000011
W. Contreras1B
.2594010000
N. Arenado3B
.2354010001
J. WalkerRF
.2293010011
T. SaggeseLF
.2344000002
P. PagesC
.2013010002
V. Scott IICF
.2271000020
Team270400510

Pitchers

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
PlayerIPHRERBBKPC
S. GraySP
5.08331591
S. MatzSP
1.03220024
M. SvansonRP
2.01000019
J. KingRP
0.2000006
K. LeahySP
0.1000003
Team9.0125515143

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIA

  • S. Alcantara
    94 pitches·23% CSW
    • SL
      36%·86.2 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      26%·91.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      24%·98.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      9%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      5%·98.6 mph·0% whiff
  • V. Bellozo
    28 pitches·32% CSW
    • FC
      36%·84.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      32%·91.8 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      25%·79.4 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      7%·81.5 mph·— whiff
  • C. Faucher
    20 pitches·35% CSW
    • FC
      35%·93.9 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      35%·87.8 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      15%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      15%·96.5 mph·— whiff
  • R. Henriquez
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      36%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      36%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      18%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·96.7 mph·0% whiff

STL

  • S. Gray
    91 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      30%·90.8 mph·23% whiff
    • ST
      16%·84.4 mph·11% whiff
    • CH
      15%·85.0 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      15%·79.4 mph·29% whiff
    • SI
      11%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·84.6 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      1%·88.0 mph·— whiff
  • S. Matz
    24 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      46%·94.5 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      33%·80.0 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      13%·82.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Svanson
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      63%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      32%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      5%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
  • J. King
    6 pitches·50% CSW
    • SI
      50%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·84.4 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      17%·78.6 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      17%·83.9 mph·— whiff
  • K. Leahy
    3 pitches·0% CSW
    • CU
      33%·84.7 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      33%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·87.8 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

4

5

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Current series

MIA wins series 2-1

Jul 28MIAMIA1@STLSTL7
Jul 29MIAMIA5@STLSTL0today
Jul 30MIAMIA2@STLSTL0

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jul 28MIAMIA1@STLSTL7
Jul 29MIAMIA5@STLSTL0today
Jul 30MIAMIA2@STLSTL0
Aug 18STLSTL8@MIAMIA3
Aug 19STLSTL7@MIAMIA4
Aug 20STLSTL2@MIAMIA6

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIA ↔ STL

Biggest swing: 20pp · Top 2nd Inning

MIAMIA
G. Pauley

G. Pauley

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

S. Alcantara

S. Alcantara

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

STLSTL
J. Walker

J. Walker

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

S. Gray

S. Gray

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

How it ended

MIA beat STL 5-0. Pauley's play in the top 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

STL vs MIA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MIATop 2nd Inning · 2-0
+20pp→ 46% WP

Pauley · homered to right (384 feet), Johnston scored.

MIATop 5th Inning · 3-0
+12pp→ 75% WP

Lopez · singled to right, Stowers scored.

MIABottom 5th Inning · 3-0
+12pp→ 82% WP

Burleson · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIA0200120005
STL0000000000

Period scoring

MIA won 3 · STL won 0

0
0

Inn 1

2
0

Inn 2

Pauley 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Lopez 1

2
0

Inn 6

Wagaman 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

MIA
STL

Play-by-play · 573 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    MIA 5·STL 0

  2. B9

    ·

    MIA 5·STL 0

  3. B9

    Saggese struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIA 5·STL 0

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIA 5·STL 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIA 5·STL 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIA 5·STL 0

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    MIA 5·STL 0

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    MIA 5·STL 0

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 5·STL 0

  10. B9

    Valente Bellozo pitches to Thomas Saggese

    ·

    MIA 5·STL 0

  11. B9

    ·

    MIA 5·STL 0

  12. B9

    Walker struck out swinging.

    ·

    MIA 5·STL 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    MIA 5·STL 0

  14. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIA 5·STL 0

  15. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIA 5·STL 0

  16. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIA 5·STL 0

  17. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIA 5·STL 0

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 5·STL 0

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIA 5·STL 0

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    MIA 5·STL 0

  21. B9

    Valente Bellozo pitches to Jordan Walker

    ·

    MIA 5·STL 0

  22. B9

    ·

    MIA 5·STL 0

  23. B9

    Arenado popped out to shortstop.

    ·

    MIA 5·STL 0

  24. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIA 5·STL 0

  25. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    MIA 5·STL 0

  26. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    MIA 5·STL 0

  27. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    MIA 5·STL 0

  28. B9

    Valente Bellozo pitches to Nolan Arenado

    ·

    MIA 5·STL 0

  29. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    MIA 5·STL 0

  30. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    MIA 5·STL 0

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

STL

Home

5

Runs

0

12

Hits

4

0

Errors

0

20

TB

4

1

HR

0

1

BB

5

5

K

10

11

LOB

15

Player projections

STL vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Max MeyerMIA
    6.4± 1.9low
  • Dustin MaySTL
    5.3± 3.4low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.2low

Hits

  • Otto LopezMIA
    1.6± 0.8high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    1.5± 0.8high
  • Alec BurlesonSTL
    1.3± 0.5high

Total bases

  • Alec BurlesonSTL
    2.8± 1.6high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    2.7± 1.6high
  • Otto LopezMIA
    2.3± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    1.1± 1.3high
  • Alec BurlesonSTL
    1.0± 1.1high
  • Kyle StowersMIA
    0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Sandy AlcantaraMIA
    3.3± 3.0medium
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.7± 2.2low
  • Kyle LeahySTL
    2.5± 2.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.8%

ensemble · STL favored

  • Elo Static

    51.1%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.4%

    P(STL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.3%

    P(STL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.59 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.