• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+1SD
NYM

NYM

62-45

6
7
SD

SD

58-49

Petco Park · San Diego, California
43,596 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

NYM 6 · SD 7 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYM +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYM0100400016
SD0010500017

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 61-39
62%Last 30 · 322-200
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 26, 25sim 96
    229
    10(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 95
    66
    11(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 30, 25sim 94
    135
    3(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Sep 4, 25sim 94
    108
    18(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 29, 25sim 94
    195
    17(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 20, 25sim 93
    186
    12(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Mon, Jul 28·Final/SeriesSD wins series 3-0

Recap · MLB

San Diego Padres held off New York Mets, 7–6. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYM · top performer

NYM
Mark Vientos

Mark Vientos

1B

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

4

RBI

SD · top performer

SD
Luis Arraez

Luis Arraez

2B

1.400OPS

5-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · New York Mets at San Diego Padres · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYM62-45
6
7
SD58-49
NYM62-45·SD58-49
NYM

NYM

62-45

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
1-55110003
SPRINT28.278
F. LindorF. Lindor★SS
2-55020003
SPRINT26.941
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
0-44100003
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
0-44000002
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
0-11200030
SPRINT25.920
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
2-44124100
SPRINT25.513
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
0-33001002
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
0-22000021
R. MauricioR. Mauricio★SS
1-44111101
Team6-32326662515
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
F. MontasF. Montas★SP
4.1855231
H. BrazobanH. BrazobanRP
0.2311100
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
2.0100140
R. StanekR. StanekRP
1.0000010
G. SotoG. SotoRP
0.2210010
Team8.21476491
SD

SD

58-49

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
F. Tatis Jr.F. Tatis Jr.★RF
1-44110011
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
2-55122100
SPRINT26.632
M. MachadoM. Machado★3B
2-44220001
SPRINT24.32
J. MerrillJ. Merrill★CF
1-44010011
X. BogaertsX. Bogaerts★SS
3-55131001
SPRINT27.148
G. SheetsG. Sheets★1B
0-33000012
J. CronenworthJ. Cronenworth★2B
1-44111011
SPRINT28.891
B. JohnsonB. Johnson★RF
2-55021001
E. DiazE. Diaz★C
2-55022001
J. IglesiasJ. Iglesias2B
0-11100000
Team14-40407147149
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. CeaseD. Cease★SP
4.2555591
D. MorganD. MorganRP
0.1000000
A. MorejonA. MorejonRP
1.2000040
J. EstradaJ. EstradaRP
0.1000000
J. AdamJ. AdamRP
1.0000010
R. SuarezR. SuarezRP
1.0111011
Team9.06665152

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYM

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

SD

  • J. Estrada
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • FF
      75%·98.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      17%·88.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      8%·84.7 mph·— whiff
  • A. Morejon
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      67%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      22%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·89.4 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

14

6

Runs

7

1

Errors

0

Current series

SD wins series 3-0

Jul 29NYMNYM6@SDSD7today
Jul 30NYMNYM1@SDSD7
Jul 30NYMNYM0@SDSD5

Season series

SD leads series 1-0

Jul 29NYMNYM6@SDSD7today
Jul 30NYMNYM1@SDSD7
Jul 30NYMNYM0@SDSD5
Sep 16SDSD3@NYMNYM8
Sep 17SDSD7@NYMNYM4
Sep 18SDSD1@NYMNYM6

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYM ↔ SD

Biggest swing: 41pp · Top 5th Inning

NYMNYM
M. Vientos

M. Vientos

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

F. Montas

F. Montas

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 3 K · 5 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

SDSD
L. Arraez

L. Arraez

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

D. Cease

D. Cease

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 9 K · 5 ER · 5 H · 5 BB

How it ended

SD beat NYM 7-6. Vientos's play in the top 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (41pp).

Win probability

SD vs NYM

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYMTop 5th Inning · 5-1
+41pp→ 87% WP

Vientos · homered to right (385 feet), Nimmo scored, J. Soto scored and McNeil scored.

NYMTop 9th Inning · 6-6
+39pp→ 43% WP

Mauricio · homered to right center (415 feet).

SDBottom 9th Inning · 6-7
+41pp→ 100% WP

Díaz singled to left, Iglesias scored, Cronenworth to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYM0100400016
SD0010500017

Period scoring

NYM won 1 · SD won 2

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Baty 1

0
1

Inn 3

Bogaerts 1

0
0

Inn 4

4
5

Inn 5

Vientos 4

Arraez 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1
1

Inn 9

Mauricio 1

NYM
SD

Play-by-play · 630 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    · ·

    NYM 6·SD 7

  2. B9

    Díaz singled to left, Iglesias scored, Cronenworth to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYM 6·SD 7

    +41pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 6·SD 7

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 6·SD 6

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 6·SD 6

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 6·SD 6

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 6·SD 6

  8. B9

    Gregory Soto pitches to Elias Diaz

    · ·

    NYM 6·SD 7

  9. B9

    · ·

    NYM 6·SD 6

  10. B9

    Johnson struck out looking.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYM 6·SD 6

    −9pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    NYM 6·SD 6

  12. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYM 6·SD 6

  13. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    NYM 6·SD 6

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    NYM 6·SD 6

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYM 6·SD 6

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYM 6·SD 6

  17. B9

    Gregory Soto pitches to Bryce Johnson

    · ·

    NYM 6·SD 6

  18. B9

    · ·

    NYM 6·SD 6

  19. B9

    Cronenworth bunted into fielder's choice to pitcher, Iglesias to second, Bogaerts out at third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYM 6·SD 6

    −10pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 6·SD 6

  21. B9

    Gregory Soto pitches to Jake Cronenworth

    · ·

    NYM 6·SD 6

  22. B9

    · ·

    NYM 6·SD 6

  23. B9

    Iglesias grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Bogaerts safe at second on throwing error by pitcher G. Soto.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    NYM 6·SD 6

    +9pp

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYM 6·SD 6

  25. B9

    Gregory Soto pitches to Jose Iglesias

    · ·

    NYM 6·SD 6

  26. B9

    Iglesias hit for Sheets

    ·

    NYM 6·SD 6

  27. B9

    ·

    NYM 6·SD 6

  28. B9

    Bogaerts singled to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    NYM 6·SD 6

    +7pp

  29. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYM 6·SD 6

  30. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYM 6·SD 6

Team stats

NYM

Away

Stat

SD

Home

6

Runs

7

6

Hits

14

1

Errors

0

13

TB

19

2

HR

1

5

BB

4

15

K

9

12

LOB

23

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Jake CronenworthSD · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Jackson MerrillSD · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · RF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

SD vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Michael KingSD
    5.7± 2.2low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
    1.4± 1.0high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Bo BichetteNYM
    1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Ty FranceSD
    1.7± 2.0high
  • Gavin SheetsSD
    1.6± 3.0high

RBIs

  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Manny MachadoSD
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Ty FranceSD
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Griffin CanningSD
    3.8± 2.9low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.0%

ensemble · NYM favored

  • Elo Static

    49.9%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.0%

    P(SD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.5%

    P(SD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.88 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.