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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+7PHI
PHI

PHI

59-44

12
5
NYY

NYY

56-47

Yankee Stadium · Bronx, New York
47,018 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PHI 12 · NYY 5 (by 7)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYY +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PHI00002042412
NYY1100012005

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 62-39
62%Last 30 · 323-200
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Jul 25·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 2-1

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies went into New York Yankees and beat them, 12–5. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Kyle Schwarber

Kyle Schwarber

DH

2.467OPS

5-3

AB-H

3

R

4

RBI

NYY · top performer

NYY
Ben Rice

Ben Rice

1B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Philadelphia Phillies at New York Yankees · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PHI59-44
12
5
NYY56-47
PHI59-44·NYY56-47
PHI

PHI

59-44

12
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
4-55341011
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
3-55334211
SPRINT25.818
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
0-44000011
N. CastellanosN. Castellanos★RF
2-55221000
SPRINT27.148
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
2-55123100
SPRINT28.381
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
1-44010011
M. KeplerM. Kepler★LF
0-33100010
O. KempO. Kemp★LF
0-44000003
B. StottB. Stott★2B
1-55112002
SPRINT28.688
E. SosaE. Sosa2B
1-11111000
Team14-4141121412359
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. WalkerT. Walker★SP
5.2633033
T. BanksT. BanksRP
0.1100010
J. RomanoJ. RomanoRP
1.0222011
O. KerkeringO. KerkeringRP
1.0100020
D. RobertD. RobertRP
1.0000000
Team9.01055074
NYY

NYY

56-47

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
0-55000000
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
0-33001001
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
1-44111101
SPRINT27.560
G. StantonG. Stanton★DH
1-44111102
SPRINT23.81
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
2-44020002
SPRINT28.175
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt★1B
2-44020000
A. WellsA. Wells★C
1-44111101
SPRINT25.18
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
1-44111100
O. PerazaO. Peraza★2B
1-22010000
B. RiceB. Rice1B
1-11110000
J. VivasJ. Vivas3B
0-11000000
Team10-36365105407
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
W. WarrenW. Warren★SP
5.2522371
T. HillT. HillRP
0.2222010
L. WeaverL. WeaverRP
0.2222001
I. HamiltonI. HamiltonRP
1.0122111
S. EffrossS. EffrossRP
1.0444100
Team9.0141212593

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PHI

  • T. Walker
    83 pitches·24% CSW
    • FC
      36%·87.4 mph·14% whiff
    • FS
      25%·87.4 mph·8% whiff
    • SI
      22%·91.5 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      10%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      5%·84.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      2%·75.6 mph·0% whiff
  • O. Kerkering
    22 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      45%·98.7 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      41%·88.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      14%·98.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Romano
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      69%·86.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      31%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Banks
    8 pitches·50% CSW
    • ST
      50%·82.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      25%·87.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·93.3 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      13%·93.6 mph·— whiff
  • D. Robert
    7 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      43%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      29%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      14%·91.9 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      14%·96.2 mph·0% whiff

NYY

  • W. Warren
    89 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      44%·93.6 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      24%·92.8 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      21%·82.9 mph·23% whiff
    • CH
      6%·86.4 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      6%·79.5 mph·20% whiff
  • S. Effross
    23 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      43%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      35%·79.1 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      17%·82.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      4%·88.5 mph·— whiff
  • I. Hamilton
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      58%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      32%·88.6 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      11%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Hill
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • SI
      83%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      11%·85.1 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      6%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Weaver
    16 pitches·13% CSW
    • FF
      56%·95.2 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      44%·88.4 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

14

Hits

10

12

Runs

5

0

Errors

2

Current series

PHI wins series 2-1

Jul 25PHIPHI12@NYYNYY5today
Jul 26PHIPHI9@NYYNYY4
Jul 27PHIPHI3@NYYNYY4

Season series

PHI leads series 1-0

Jul 25PHIPHI12@NYYNYY5today
Jul 26PHIPHI9@NYYNYY4
Jul 27PHIPHI3@NYYNYY4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHI ↔ NYY

Biggest swing: 28pp · Top 7th Inning

PHIPHI
K. Schwarber

K. Schwarber

DH

Batter of the game2-HR game

3-for-5 · 2 HR · 2.467 OPS

T. Walker

T. Walker

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 6 H

NYYNYY
B. Rice

B. Rice

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

W. Warren

W. Warren

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 7 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

How it ended

PHI beat NYY 12-5. Realmuto's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (28pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

NYY vs PHI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PHITop 5th Inning · 2-2
+18pp→ 42% WP

Schwarber · homered to right center (413 feet), Turner scored.

PHITop 7th Inning · 6-3
+28pp→ 87% WP

Realmuto · homered to left center (414 feet), Schwarber scored and Castellanos scored.

PHITop 8th Inning · 8-5
+25pp→ 91% WP

Schwarber · homered to right (380 feet), Turner scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PHI00002042412
NYY1100012005

Period scoring

PHI won 4 · NYY won 3

0
1

Inn 1

Bellinger 1

0
1

Inn 2

Wells 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

2
0

Inn 5

Schwarber 2

0
1

Inn 6

Stanton 1

4
2

Inn 7

Realmuto 3

Volpe 1

2
0

Inn 8

Schwarber 2

4
0

Inn 9

Stott 2

PHI
NYY

Play-by-play · 606 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    PHI 12·NYY 5

  2. B9

    ·

    PHI 12·NYY 5

  3. B9

    Grisham lined out to right.

    ·

    PHI 12·NYY 5

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 12·NYY 5

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 12·NYY 5

  6. B9

    Daniel Robert pitches to Trent Grisham

    ·

    PHI 12·NYY 5

  7. B9

    ·

    PHI 12·NYY 5

  8. B9

    Vivas flied out to right.

    ·

    PHI 12·NYY 5

  9. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 12·NYY 5

  10. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    PHI 12·NYY 5

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    PHI 12·NYY 5

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PHI 12·NYY 5

  13. B9

    Daniel Robert pitches to Jorbit Vivas

    ·

    PHI 12·NYY 5

  14. B9

    ·

    PHI 12·NYY 5

  15. B9

    Volpe grounded out to second.

    ·

    PHI 12·NYY 5

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PHI 12·NYY 5

  17. B9

    Daniel Robert pitches to Anthony Volpe

    ·

    PHI 12·NYY 5

  18. B9

    Robert relieved Kerkering

    ·

    PHI 12·NYY 5

  19. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    PHI 12·NYY 5

  20. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    PHI 12·NYY 5

  21. T9

    · ·

    PHI 12·NYY 5

  22. T9

    Schwarber lined out to right.

    · ·

    PHI 12·NYY 5

  23. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PHI 12·NYY 5

  24. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    PHI 12·NYY 5

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PHI 12·NYY 5

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PHI 12·NYY 5

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PHI 12·NYY 5

  28. T9

    Scott Effross pitches to Kyle Schwarber

    · ·

    PHI 12·NYY 5

  29. T9

    ·

    PHI 12·NYY 5

  30. T9

    Turner tripled to right, Stott scored.

    · ·

    PHI 12·NYY 5

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

NYY

Home

12

Runs

5

14

Hits

10

0

Errors

2

27

TB

22

3

HR

4

5

BB

0

9

K

7

20

LOB

9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Jul 23, 25sim 97
    29
    22(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 20, 25sim 93
    186
    12(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 26, 25sim 93
    229
    10(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 18, 25sim 92
    127
    22(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 27, 25sim 92
    257
    12(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 26, 25sim 91
    256
    12(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

NYY vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low

Hits

  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    2.5± 3.7low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.0%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    52.8%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.3%

    P(NYY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.1%

    P(NYY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.76 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175