Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NY at ATL?

The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+14NY

9-4

10490

ATL

8-4

WNBAThu, Jun 11FinalSeriesNY leads series 1-0VegasATL -3.5

NY · top performer

Breanna Stewart

F · #30

18.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ATL · top performer

Rhyne Howard

G · #10

19.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNY ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 15pp · 3rd Quarter · 4:55

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. StewartF · #30	35	19	5-9	0-2	9-11	+20	11	5
L. FiebichF · #13	27	6	2-7	2-6	—	+7	3	1
J. JonesC · #35	26	16	5-8	4-7	2-2	-2	10	5
M. JohannesG · #23	22	17	5-6	2-3	5-5	+12	1	0
P. AstierG · #18	26	16	6-10	1-2	3-5	+6	8	5
Bench
S. SaballyF · #0	17	19	5-9	5-6	4-4	0	3	0
R. CarreraF · #14	8	3	1-2	1-1	—	+10	0	0
H. XuC · #21	7	0	0-1	—	—	-3	0	2
R. GardnerG · #7	13	8	3-5	1-2	1-1	+3	3	2
B. Laney-HamiltonG · #44	14	0	0-2	0-2	—	+11	1	3
M. FauthouxG · #4	5	0	—	—	—	+6	0	1
Team		104	32-59	16-31	24-28		40	24
DNP: R. Allen, S. Ionescu

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. HillmonF · #00	30	7	3-8	1-4	—	-18	1	3
A. ReeseF · #5	33	25	11-22	0-4	3-6	-7	9	3
A. GrayG · #15	31	18	7-11	1-3	3-9	-1	3	2
J. CanadaG · #3	29	3	0-5	0-1	3-4	+1	3	7
R. HowardG · #10	36	24	7-18	5-13	5-6	-12	4	3
Bench
S. KoneF · #23	3	2	1-2	—	—	+5	1	0
M. OkotC · #11	7	3	1-1	—	1-2	-7	1	1
T. PaopaoG · #2	11	3	1-4	1-2	—	-17	0	2
A. NyeG · #32	1	0	—	—	—	0	0	1
I. NivarG · #21	1	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
I. BorlaseG · #20	19	5	2-4	1-2	—	-14	2	0
Team		90	33-75	9-29	15-27		24	22
DNP: B. Jones

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

32-59

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

33-75

FG %

16-31

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-29

24-28

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-27

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

NY leads series 1-0

Jun 11

NY104@

ATL90today

Sep 22

ATL@

NYupcoming

Sep 24

ATL@

NYupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

165.5

Standard · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NY+13043%

ATL-15561%

14· 6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -3.5↗SpreadBet ATL -3.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

+2.0 since open

Total

165.5

-1.0 since open

How it ended

NY beat ATL 104-90. B. Stewart led with 19 PTS, 11 REB, 5 AST. NY outscored the other side 29-20 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ATL vs NY

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NYstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

74 PTS · 33 REB · 16 AST

GS 61

Bench(6)

30 PTS · 7 REB · 8 AST

GS 21

ATLstarters 86% of pts

Starters(5)

77 PTS · 20 REB · 18 AST

GS 60

Bench(6)

13 PTS · 4 REB · 4 AST

GS 11

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ATL2nd Quarter · 2:02 · 40-39

+10pp→ 50% WP

Rhyne Howard · makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot

NY3rd Quarter · 4:55 · 64-57

+15pp→ 78% WP

Breanna Stewart · makes technical free throw

NY3rd Quarter · 3:29 · 66-59

+10pp→ 79% WP

Naz Hillmon · bad pass turnover (Breanna Stewart steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NY	21	30	29	24	104
ATL	19	25	20	26	90

Period scoring

NY won 3 · ATL won 1

Sabally 6

Reese 7

Johannes 12

Howard 9

Sabally 8

Stewart 24

Jones 5

Gray 9

ATL

Shooting comparison

ATL

54%

32-59

44%

33-75

52%

16-31

3PT

31%

9-29

86%

24-28

56%

15-27

Play-by-play · 442 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 104·ATL 90
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 104·ATL 90
Q4·6.4
Leonie Fiebich lost ball turnover (Aaliyah Nye steals)
·
NY 104·ATL 90
Q4·17.2
Madina Okot makes 3-foot reverse layup (Aaliyah Nye assists)
·
NY 104·ATL 90
Q4·33.8
Jonquel Jones makes 25-foot three point jumper (Pauline Astier assists)
· ·
NY 104·ATL 88
Q4·39.6
Breanna Stewart makes free throw 1 of 1
NY 101·ATL 88
Q4·39.6
Te-Hina Paopao away from play foul
NY 100·ATL 88
Q4·39.6
Liberty timeout
NY 100·ATL 88
Q4·40.6
Sika Kone makes 1-foot layup (Madina Okot assists)
·
NY 100·ATL 88
Q4·53.4
Sika Kone enters the game for Allisha Gray
·
NY 100·ATL 86
Q4·53.4
Aaliyah Nye enters the game for Rhyne Howard
·
NY 100·ATL 86
Q4·53.4
Madina Okot enters the game for Angel Reese
·
NY 100·ATL 86
Q4·53.4
Indya Nivar enters the game for Jordin Canada
·
NY 100·ATL 86
Q4·53.4
Te-Hina Paopao enters the game for Naz Hillmon
·
NY 100·ATL 86
Q4·53.4
Dream Full timeout
NY 100·ATL 86
Q4·54.6
Pauline Astier makes driving layup (Leonie Fiebich assists)
·
NY 100·ATL 86
Q4·1:13
Rhyne Howard bad pass turnover (Breanna Stewart steals)
·
NY 98·ATL 86
−0.5pp
Q4·1:21
Jonquel Jones loose ball foul
·
NY 98·ATL 86
+0.5pp
Q4·1:21
Dream offensive team rebound
NY 98·ATL 86
Q4·1:21
Naz Hillmon misses 24-foot three point jumper
NY 98·ATL 86
Q4·1:31
Dream Full timeout
NY 98·ATL 86
Q4·1:31
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton enters the game for Rebekah Gardner
·
NY 98·ATL 86
Q4·1:31
Rebekah Gardner offensive foul turnover
NY 98·ATL 86
Q4·1:31
Rebekah Gardner offensive foul
NY 98·ATL 86
Q4·1:37
Pauline Astier defensive rebound
NY 98·ATL 86
Q4·1:41
Naz Hillmon misses driving layup
NY 98·ATL 86
Q4·1:58
Dream defensive team rebound
NY 98·ATL 86
Q4·1:59
Rebekah Gardner misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
NY 98·ATL 86
Q4·2:17
Rhyne Howard makes driving layup
NY 98·ATL 86
Q4·2:23
Rhyne Howard defensive rebound
NY 98·ATL 84

Betting line

ATL -3.5·O/U 165.5·NY +130/ATL -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

ew York Liberty went into Atlanta Dream and beat them, 104–90.

NY +3.5 cashed (ATL lost outright). Total cleared the 165.5 OVER by 28.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

ATL

eFG%

shooting

67.8%

50.0%

TOV%

ball control

21.0%

5.4%

OREB%

offensive glass

31.8%

21.4%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

40.7%

20.0%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Angel ReeseATL · F
ORB%.20899+
Jordin CanadaATL · G
AST/TO2.995
Jonquel JonesNY · C
DRB%.27493
Marine JohannesNY · G
eFG%.62993
Pauline AstierNY · G
TS%.65692

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.9%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
68.1%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
66.8%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
63.1%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.11 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+6.72

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-125

Close price

-166

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

60.0%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NY at ATL?: The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+12.3pp

best edge · ATL · DraftKings

no live price

ATL

★ best

-125DraftKings

edge +12.3pp · implied 52.0%

Book	NY	ATL	Best edge
DraftKings	-105	-125★	+12.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

ATL vs NY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 85 high confidence

Points

Breanna StewartNY
22.8± 8.7high
Allisha GrayATL
19.7± 4.1high
Sabrina IonescuNY
18.8± 6.4high

Rebounds

Angel ReeseATL
10.7± 3.1high
Jonquel JonesNY
9.6± 3.2high
Breanna StewartNY
8.8± 2.8high

Assists

Jordin CanadaATL
8.1± 3.0high
Sabrina IonescuNY
4.7± 1.6high
Rhyne HowardATL
3.6± 1.3high

Blocks

Breanna StewartNY
1.6± 1.1high
Jonquel JonesNY
1.0± 0.7high
Rhyne HowardATL
0.6± 1.1high

Steals

Angel ReeseATL
2.2± 1.6high
Jordin CanadaATL
2.2± 0.7high
Rhyne HowardATL
2.2± 1.6high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

New York LibertyAtlanta Dream

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop