WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+14NY

9-4

10490

ATL

8-4

WNBAThu, Jun 11FinalSeriesNY leads series 1-0VegasATL -3.5

Recap · WNBA

ew York Liberty went into Atlanta Dream and beat them, 104–90.

NY +3.5 cashed (ATL lost outright). Total cleared the 165.5 OVER by 28.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NY · top performer

Breanna Stewart

F · #30

18.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ATL · top performer

Rhyne Howard

G · #10

19.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. StewartF · #30	35	19	5-9	0-2	9-11	+20	11	5
L. FiebichF · #13	27	6	2-7	2-6	—	+7	3	1
J. JonesC · #35	26	16	5-8	4-7	2-2	-2	10	5
M. JohannesG · #23	22	17	5-6	2-3	5-5	+12	1	0
P. AstierG · #18	26	16	6-10	1-2	3-5	+6	8	5
Bench
S. SaballyF · #0	17	19	5-9	5-6	4-4	0	3	0
R. CarreraF · #14	8	3	1-2	1-1	—	+10	0	0
H. XuC · #21	7	0	0-1	—	—	-3	0	2
R. GardnerG · #7	13	8	3-5	1-2	1-1	+3	3	2
B. Laney-HamiltonG · #44	14	0	0-2	0-2	—	+11	1	3
M. FauthouxG · #4	5	0	—	—	—	+6	0	1
Team		104	32-59	16-31	24-28		40	24
DNP: R. Allen, S. Ionescu

DNP: R. Allen, S. Ionescu

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. HillmonF · #00	30	7	3-8	1-4	—	-18	1	3
A. ReeseF · #5	33	25	11-22	0-4	3-6	-7	9	3
A. GrayG · #15	31	18	7-11	1-3	3-9	-1	3	2
J. CanadaG · #3	29	3	0-5	0-1	3-4	+1	3	7
R. HowardG · #10	36	24	7-18	5-13	5-6	-12	4	3
Bench
S. KoneF · #23	3	2	1-2	—	—	+5	1	0
M. OkotC · #11	7	3	1-1	—	1-2	-7	1	1
T. PaopaoG · #2	11	3	1-4	1-2	—	-17	0	2
A. NyeG · #32	1	0	—	—	—	0	0	1
I. NivarG · #21	1	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
I. BorlaseG · #20	19	5	2-4	1-2	—	-14	2	0
Team		90	33-75	9-29	15-27		24	22
DNP: B. Jones

DNP: B. Jones

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

NY leads series 1-0

Jun 11

NY104@

ATL90today

Sep 22

ATL@

NYupcoming

Sep 24

ATL@

NYupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

165.5

Standard · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NY+13043%

ATL-15561%

14· 6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -3.5↗SpreadBet ATL -3.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

+2.0 since open

Total

165.5

-1.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNY ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 15pp · 3rd Quarter · 4:55

B. Stewart

Game leader · 35 minDouble-double

19 PTS · 11 REB · 5 AST

ATL

R. Howard

Game leader · 36 min

24 PTS · 4 REB · 3 AST

How it ended

NY beat ATL 104-90. B. Stewart led with 19 PTS, 11 REB, 5 AST. NY outscored the other side 29-20 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ATL vs NY

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NYstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

74 PTS · 33 REB · 16 AST

GS 61

Bench(6)

30 PTS · 7 REB · 8 AST

GS 21

ATLstarters 86% of pts

Starters(5)

77 PTS · 20 REB · 18 AST

GS 60

Bench(6)

13 PTS · 4 REB · 4 AST

GS 11

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ATL2nd Quarter · 2:02 · 40-39

+10pp→ 50% WP

Rhyne Howard · makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot

NY3rd Quarter · 4:55 · 64-57

+15pp→ 78% WP

Breanna Stewart · makes technical free throw

NY3rd Quarter · 3:29 · 66-59

+10pp→ 79% WP

Naz Hillmon · bad pass turnover (Breanna Stewart steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NY	21	30	29	24	104
ATL	19	25	20	26	90

Period scoring

NY won 3 · ATL won 1

Sabally 6

Reese 7

Johannes 12

Howard 9

Sabally 8

Stewart 24

Jones 5

Gray 9

ATL

Shooting comparison

ATL

54%

32-59

44%

33-75

52%

16-31

3PT

31%

9-29

86%

24-28

56%

15-27

Play-by-play · 442 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 104·ATL 90
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 104·ATL 90
Q4·6.4
Leonie Fiebich lost ball turnover (Aaliyah Nye steals)
·
NY 104·ATL 90
Q4·17.2
Madina Okot makes 3-foot reverse layup (Aaliyah Nye assists)
·
NY 104·ATL 90
Q4·33.8
Jonquel Jones makes 25-foot three point jumper (Pauline Astier assists)
· ·
NY 104·ATL 88
Q4·39.6
Breanna Stewart makes free throw 1 of 1
NY 101·ATL 88
Q4·39.6
Te-Hina Paopao away from play foul
NY 100·ATL 88
Q4·39.6
Liberty timeout
NY 100·ATL 88
Q4·40.6
Sika Kone makes 1-foot layup (Madina Okot assists)
·
NY 100·ATL 88
Q4·53.4
Sika Kone enters the game for Allisha Gray
·
NY 100·ATL 86
Q4·53.4
Aaliyah Nye enters the game for Rhyne Howard
·
NY 100·ATL 86
Q4·53.4
Madina Okot enters the game for Angel Reese
·
NY 100·ATL 86
Q4·53.4
Indya Nivar enters the game for Jordin Canada
·
NY 100·ATL 86
Q4·53.4
Te-Hina Paopao enters the game for Naz Hillmon
·
NY 100·ATL 86
Q4·53.4
Dream Full timeout
NY 100·ATL 86
Q4·54.6
Pauline Astier makes driving layup (Leonie Fiebich assists)
·
NY 100·ATL 86
Q4·1:13
Rhyne Howard bad pass turnover (Breanna Stewart steals)
·
NY 98·ATL 86
−0.5pp
Q4·1:21
Jonquel Jones loose ball foul
·
NY 98·ATL 86
+0.5pp
Q4·1:21
Dream offensive team rebound
NY 98·ATL 86
Q4·1:21
Naz Hillmon misses 24-foot three point jumper
NY 98·ATL 86
Q4·1:31
Dream Full timeout
NY 98·ATL 86
Q4·1:31
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton enters the game for Rebekah Gardner
·
NY 98·ATL 86
Q4·1:31
Rebekah Gardner offensive foul turnover
NY 98·ATL 86
Q4·1:31
Rebekah Gardner offensive foul
NY 98·ATL 86
Q4·1:37
Pauline Astier defensive rebound
NY 98·ATL 86
Q4·1:41
Naz Hillmon misses driving layup
NY 98·ATL 86
Q4·1:58
Dream defensive team rebound
NY 98·ATL 86
Q4·1:59
Rebekah Gardner misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
NY 98·ATL 86
Q4·2:17
Rhyne Howard makes driving layup
NY 98·ATL 86
Q4·2:23
Rhyne Howard defensive rebound
NY 98·ATL 84

Team stats

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

32-59

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

33-75

FG %

16-31

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-29

24-28

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-27

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

ATL -3.5·O/U 165.5·NY +130/ATL -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Angel ReeseATL · F
ORB%.20899+
Jordin CanadaATL · G
AST/TO2.995
Jonquel JonesNY · C
DRB%.27493
Marine JohannesNY · G
eFG%.62993
Pauline AstierNY · G
TS%.65692

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.9%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
68.1%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
70.4%
P(ATL win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
65.4%
P(ATL win)
35%
weight

Disagreement

2.05 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+6.72

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-125

Close price

-166

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

60.0%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+13.1pp

best edge · ATL · DraftKings

no live price

ATL

★ best

-125DraftKings

edge +13.1pp · implied 52.0%

Book	NY	ATL	Best edge
DraftKings	-105	-125★	+13.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

ATL vs NY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

115

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

Rhyne HowardATL
18.7± 11.1low
Breanna StewartNY
18.7± 8.2medium
Allisha GrayATL
17.8± 5.6medium

Rebounds

Angel ReeseATL
11.9± 4.2medium
Jonquel JonesNY
9.4± 4.0medium
Breanna StewartNY
8.8± 2.2medium

Assists

Jordin CanadaATL
6.9± 3.4medium
Pauline AstierNY
3.9± 1.9medium
Rhyne HowardATL
3.1± 3.2low

Blocks

Jonquel JonesNY
1.5± 1.6medium
Breanna StewartNY
1.1± 2.5medium
Rhyne HowardATL
0.8± 1.5low

Steals

Rhyne HowardATL
3.0± 2.5low
Jordin CanadaATL
1.7± 1.6medium
Angel ReeseATL
1.5± 1.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

league avg

ATL

45.9%

FG%

◀

44.3

43.5%

35.3%

3PT %

◀

33.0

32.9%

88.4

PPG

◀

85.2

87.1

21.1

Assists / G

◀

18.0

19.8

14.7

Turnovers / G

13.0

▶

12.9

Data via ESPN · wehoop