Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LV at POR?

The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+16LV

9-3

10589

POR

6-8

WNBAThu, Jun 11FinalSeriesLV wins series 3-0VegasLV -11.5

LV · top performer

A'ja Wilson

C · #22

25.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

POR · top performer

Carla Leite

G · #0

19.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLV ↔ POR

Biggest swing: 13pp · 2nd Quarter · 59.9

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. TalbotF · #7	24	8	3-6	2-5	0-2	+17	10	3
N. SmithF · #3	25	12	4-8	—	4-6	+13	10	3
A. WilsonC · #22	36	32	10-20	1-2	11-13	+24	5	4
C. GrayG · #12	37	29	10-15	9-13	—	+17	5	3
J. YoungG · #0	35	18	7-15	2-5	2-3	+22	8	10
Bench
C. Parker-TyusF · #32	8	4	1-1	—	2-5	-5	2	0
B. TurnerF · #21	2	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
J. LoydG · #24	25	2	1-4	0-2	—	+1	2	2
C. CarterG · #23	8	0	0-3	0-1	—	-7	0	0
Team		105	36-72	14-28	19-29		42	25
DNP: K. Bell, J. Barker, D. Evans

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. CarletonF · #6	33	13	5-13	3-9	—	-28	1	0
E. EngstlerF · #21	24	7	2-5	0-2	3-4	-21	6	0
GustafsonC · #17	28	17	7-13	2-6	1-1	-11	2	0
S. BarkerG · #3	30	14	6-11	2-5	—	-15	1	4
C. LeiteG · #0	28	18	8-13	1-2	1-2	-20	3	8
Bench
F. BuhnerF · #20	10	2	1-2	—	—	+9	0	0
N. PuochF · #13	7	0	—	—	—	+1	0	1
L. GeiselsoderC · #15	12	6	3-4	0-1	—	-6	1	0
S. WilliamsC · #25	5	2	1-1	—	—	+10	1	1
K. SamuelsonG · #44	12	1	0-1	0-1	1-2	-3	1	2
T. OblakG · #7	12	9	3-5	—	3-3	+4	3	6
Team		89	36-68	8-26	9-12		19	22
DNP: H. Winterburn

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

POR

Home

36-72

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

36-68

FG %

14-28

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-26

19-29

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

9-12

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LV wins series 3-0

Jun 12

LV105@

POR89today

Jul 10

LV88@

POR80

Jul 29

POR83@

LV98

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LV -11.5

Between 10 and —

Total

170.5

High-scoring · +5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LV-52084%

POR+39020%

55· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LV -11.5↗SpreadBet LV -11.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

11.5

+2.0 since open

Total

170.5

+1.0 since open

How it ended

LV beat POR 105-89. A. Wilson paced them with 32 PTS, 5 REB, 4 AST. LV outscored the other side 27-17 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

POR vs LV

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LVstarters 94% of pts

Starters(5)

99 PTS · 38 REB · 23 AST

GS 87

Bench(4)

6 PTS · 4 REB · 2 AST

GS 3

PORstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

69 PTS · 13 REB · 12 AST

GS 49

Bench(6)

20 PTS · 6 REB · 10 AST

GS 17

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LV2nd Quarter · 3:19 · 43-44

+8pp→ 68% WP

Chelsea Gray · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jackie Young assists)

POR2nd Quarter · 59.9 · 50-50

+13pp→ 28% WP

Emily Engstler · lost ball turnover (Jewell Loyd steals)

POR4th Quarter · 6:42 · 85-79

+9pp→ 9% WP

Karlie Samuelson · blocks Chelsea Gray 's 6-foot two point shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LV	27	29	22	27	105
POR	28	22	22	17	89

Period scoring

LV won 2 · POR won 1

Young 8

Carleton 7

Gray 12

Barker 7

Wilson 16

Samuelson 11

Gray 9

Barker 5

POR

Shooting comparison

POR

50%

36-72

53%

36-68

50%

14-28

3PT

31%

8-26

66%

19-29

75%

9-12

Play-by-play · 405 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LV 105·POR 89
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LV 105·POR 89
Q4·1.1
Jackie Young defensive rebound
LV 105·POR 89
Q4·2.5
Megan Gustafson misses 29-foot three point jumper
LV 105·POR 89
Q4·8.6
Jackie Young makes 14-foot driving floating jump shot
LV 105·POR 89
Q4·26.7
Aces defensive team rebound
LV 103·POR 89
Q4·28.2
Bridget Carleton misses 28-foot three point jumper
LV 103·POR 89
Q4·39.5
Jackie Young makes driving layup
LV 103·POR 89
Q4·51.6
Bridget Carleton offensive foul turnover
LV 101·POR 89
Q4·51.6
Bridget Carleton offensive charge
LV 101·POR 89
Q4·1:03
Emily Engstler defensive rebound
LV 101·POR 89
Q4·1:07
Chelsea Gray misses 25-foot three point jumper
LV 101·POR 89
Q4·1:08
Stephanie Talbot offensive rebound
LV 101·POR 89
Q4·1:12
Jackie Young misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
LV 101·POR 89
Q4·1:31
Chelsea Gray defensive rebound
LV 101·POR 89
Q4·1:35
A'ja Wilson blocks Megan Gustafson 's 3-foot layup
·
LV 101·POR 89
−0.6pp
Q4·1:49
Jackie Young loose ball foul
LV 101·POR 89
+0.6pp
Q4·1:49
Fire defensive team rebound
LV 101·POR 89
Q4·1:50
Jackie Young misses two point shot
LV 101·POR 89
Q4·1:52
Jackie Young offensive rebound
LV 101·POR 89
Q4·1:54
Stephanie Talbot misses 23-foot three point jumper
LV 101·POR 89
Q4·2:20
Sarah Ashlee Barker makes 23-foot three point jumper (Carla Leite assists)
· ·
LV 101·POR 89
Q4·2:37
Chelsea Gray makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jackie Young assists)
·
LV 101·POR 86
Q4·2:49
Megan Gustafson makes 3-foot layup (Carla Leite assists)
·
LV 98·POR 86
Q4·2:58
Fire offensive team rebound
LV 98·POR 84
Q4·2:58
Jackie Young blocks Carla Leite 's 6-foot driving layup
·
LV 98·POR 84
Q4·3:09
Stephanie Talbot makes 24-foot three point jumper (A'ja Wilson assists)
·
LV 98·POR 84
−0.5pp
Q4·3:29
Emily Engstler makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 95·POR 84
Q4·3:29
Emily Engstler makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 95·POR 83
Q4·3:29
Stephanie Talbot shooting foul
LV 95·POR 82

Betting line

LV -11.5·O/U 170.5·LV -520/POR +390

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

as Vegas Aces went into Portland Fire and beat them, 105–89.

LV -11.5 cashed (won by 16). Total cleared the 170.5 OVER by 23.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

POR

eFG%

shooting

59.7%

58.8%

TOV%

ball control

14.2%

10.9%

OREB%

offensive glass

48.6%

3.8%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

26.4%

13.2%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

NaLyssa SmithLV · F
eFG%.69599+
A'ja WilsonLV · C
USG%.32399+
Megan DiLeoPOR · C
TS%.67497
Jackie YoungLV · G
AST/TO3.396
Carla LeitePOR · G
USG%.28893

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

26.3%

ensemble · LV favored

Elo Static
38.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
39.3%
P(POR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
39.6%
P(POR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.69 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-5.78

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+260

Close price

+360

Open no-vig

26.6%

Close no-vig

20.9%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LV at POR?: The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+1.5pp

best edge · POR · DraftKings

no live price

POR

★ best

+300DraftKings

edge +1.5pp · implied 23.6%

Book	LV	POR	Best edge
DraftKings	-425	+300★	+1.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

POR vs LV.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 95 high confidence

Points

A'ja WilsonLV
25.4± 8.1high
Jackie YoungLV
17.6± 8.4high
Carla LeitePOR
16.3± 6.3high

Rebounds

A'ja WilsonLV
9.7± 4.0high
Emily EngstlerPOR
6.3± 3.3high
NaLyssa SmithLV
5.7± 3.4high

Assists

Chelsea GrayLV
7.0± 2.0high
Carla LeitePOR
6.2± 2.8high
Jackie YoungLV
6.1± 3.4high

Blocks

A'ja WilsonLV
1.7± 1.4high
Emily EngstlerPOR
1.3± 1.0high
NaLyssa SmithLV
0.6± 1.0high

Steals

A'ja WilsonLV
1.7± 1.5high
Bridget CarletonPOR
1.7± 1.1high
Emily EngstlerPOR
1.7± 0.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Las Vegas AcesPortland Fire

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop