LV
9-3
POR
6-8
Recap · WNBA
as Vegas Aces went into Portland Fire and beat them, 105–89.
LV -11.5 cashed (won by 16). Total cleared the 170.5 OVER by 23.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LV · top performer
A'ja Wilson
C · #22
32
Pts
5
Reb
4
Ast
POR · top performer
Carla Leite
G · #0
18
Pts
3
Reb
8
Ast
WNBA · Las Vegas Aces at Portland Fire · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 24 | 8 | 3-6 | 2-5 | 0-2 | +17 | 10 | 3 | |
| 25 | 12 | 4-8 | — | 4-6 | +13 | 10 | 3 | |
| 36 | 32 | 10-20 | 1-2 | 11-13 | +24 | 5 | 4 | |
| 37 | 29 | 10-15 | 9-13 | — | +17 | 5 | 3 | |
| 35 | 18 | 7-15 | 2-5 | 2-3 | +22 | 8 | 10 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 8 | 4 | 1-1 | — | 2-5 | -5 | 2 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | — | — | — | -2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 25 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-2 | — | +1 | 2 | 2 | |
| 8 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 | — | -7 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 105 | 36-72 | 14-28 | 19-29 | 42 | 25 | ||
| DNP: K. Bell, J. Barker, D. Evans | ||||||||
DNP: K. Bell, J. Barker, D. Evans
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 33 | 13 | 5-13 | 3-9 | — | -28 | 1 | 0 | |
| 24 | 7 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 3-4 | -21 | 6 | 0 | |
| 28 | 17 | 7-13 | 2-6 | 1-1 | -11 | 2 | 0 | |
| 30 | 14 | 6-11 | 2-5 | — | -15 | 1 | 4 | |
| 28 | 18 | 8-13 | 1-2 | 1-2 | -20 | 3 | 8 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 10 | 2 | 1-2 | — | — | +9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 7 | 0 | — | — | — | +1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 12 | 6 | 3-4 | 0-1 | — | -6 | 1 | 0 | |
| 5 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | +10 | 1 | 1 | |
| 12 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 | -3 | 1 | 2 | |
| 12 | 9 | 3-5 | — | 3-3 | +4 | 3 | 6 | |
| Team | 89 | 36-68 | 8-26 | 9-12 | 19 | 22 | ||
| DNP: H. Winterburn | ||||||||
DNP: H. Winterburn
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
50
FG %
53
25
Ast
22
Season series
LV leads series 1-0
LV105@POR89todayLV@PORupcomingPOR@LVupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
LV -11.5
Between 10 and —
Total
170.5
High-scoring · +5.5 vs avg
Moneyline
LV-52084%POR+39020%55· 6.1h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
11.5
+2.0 since open
Total
170.5
+1.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 13pp · 2nd Quarter · 59.9
LVA. Wilson
CGame leader · 36 min30-point game
32 PTS · 5 REB · 4 AST
PORC. Leite
GGame leader · 28 min
18 PTS · 3 REB · 8 AST
How it ended
LV beat POR 105-89. A. Wilson paced them with 32 PTS, 5 REB, 4 AST. LV outscored the other side 27-17 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
POR vs LV
Starters vs bench
production by unitLVstarters 94% of ptsStarters(5)
99 PTS · 38 REB · 23 AST
GS 87
Bench(4)
6 PTS · 4 REB · 2 AST
GS 3
PORstarters 78% of ptsStarters(5)
69 PTS · 13 REB · 12 AST
GS 49
Bench(6)
20 PTS · 6 REB · 10 AST
GS 17
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactChelsea Gray · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jackie Young assists)
Emily Engstler · lost ball turnover (Jewell Loyd steals)
Karlie Samuelson · blocks Chelsea Gray 's 6-foot two point shot
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | 27 | 29 | 22 | 27 | 105 |
| POR | 28 | 22 | 22 | 17 | 89 |
Period scoring
LV won 2 · POR won 1
Q1
Young 8
Carleton 7
Q2
Gray 12
Barker 7
Q3
Wilson 16
Samuelson 11
Q4
Gray 9
Barker 5
Shooting comparison
50%
36-72
FG
53%
36-68
50%
14-28
3PT
31%
8-26
66%
19-29
FT
75%
9-12
Play-by-play · 405 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LV 105·POR 89
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LV 105·POR 89
- Q4·1.1
Jackie Young defensive rebound
LV 105·POR 89
- Q4·2.5
Megan Gustafson misses 29-foot three point jumper
LV 105·POR 89
- Q4·8.6
Jackie Young makes 14-foot driving floating jump shot
LV 105·POR 89
- Q4·26.7
Aces defensive team rebound
LV 103·POR 89
- Q4·28.2
Bridget Carleton misses 28-foot three point jumper
LV 103·POR 89
- Q4·39.5
Jackie Young makes driving layup
LV 103·POR 89
- Q4·51.6
Bridget Carleton offensive foul turnover
LV 101·POR 89
- Q4·51.6
Bridget Carleton offensive charge
LV 101·POR 89
- Q4·1:03
Emily Engstler defensive rebound
LV 101·POR 89
- Q4·1:07
Chelsea Gray misses 25-foot three point jumper
LV 101·POR 89
- Q4·1:08
Stephanie Talbot offensive rebound
LV 101·POR 89
- Q4·1:12
Jackie Young misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
LV 101·POR 89
- Q4·1:31
Chelsea Gray defensive rebound
LV 101·POR 89
- Q4·1:35
A'ja Wilson blocks Megan Gustafson 's 3-foot layup
·
LV 101·POR 89
−0.6pp
- Q4·1:49
Jackie Young loose ball foul
LV 101·POR 89
+0.6pp
- Q4·1:49
Fire defensive team rebound
LV 101·POR 89
- Q4·1:50
Jackie Young misses two point shot
LV 101·POR 89
- Q4·1:52
Jackie Young offensive rebound
LV 101·POR 89
- Q4·1:54
Stephanie Talbot misses 23-foot three point jumper
LV 101·POR 89
- Q4·2:20
Sarah Ashlee Barker makes 23-foot three point jumper (Carla Leite assists)
· ·
LV 101·POR 89
- Q4·2:37
Chelsea Gray makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jackie Young assists)
·
LV 101·POR 86
- Q4·2:49
Megan Gustafson makes 3-foot layup (Carla Leite assists)
·
LV 98·POR 86
- Q4·2:58
Fire offensive team rebound
LV 98·POR 84
- Q4·2:58
Jackie Young blocks Carla Leite 's 6-foot driving layup
·
LV 98·POR 84
- Q4·3:09
Stephanie Talbot makes 24-foot three point jumper (A'ja Wilson assists)
·
LV 98·POR 84
−0.5pp
- Q4·3:29
Emily Engstler makes free throw 2 of 2
LV 95·POR 84
- Q4·3:29
Emily Engstler makes free throw 1 of 2
LV 95·POR 83
- Q4·3:29
Stephanie Talbot shooting foul
LV 95·POR 82
Team stats
LV
Away
Stat
POR
Home
36-72
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
36-68
50
FG %
53
14-28
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
8-26
19-29
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
9-12
25
Assists
22
14
Turnovers
9
Betting line
LV -11.5·O/U 170.5·LV -520/POR +390
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
NaLyssa SmithLV · FeFG%.69599+- A'ja WilsonLV · CUSG%.32399+
Megan GustafsonPOR · CTS%.67497
Jackie YoungLV · GAST/TO3.396- Carla LeitePOR · GUSG%.28893
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
18.7%
ensemble · LV favored
Elo Static
38.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
36.1%
P(POR win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
35.0%
P(POR win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
1.25 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
92% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
-5.78
CLV pp · steam
Open price
+260
Close price
+360
Open no-vig
26.6%
Close no-vig
20.9%
Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+3.1pp
best edge · LV · DraftKings
LV
★ bestedge +3.1pp · implied 76.4%
POR
no live price
| Book | LV | POR | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -425★ | +300 | +3.1 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player projections
POR vs LV.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV25.3± 5.9medium
- Jackie YoungLV15.0± 11.8medium
- Chennedy CarterLV14.2± 12.2low
Rebounds
- A'ja WilsonLV9.7± 5.0medium
- NaLyssa SmithLV7.5± 2.8medium
- Emily EngstlerPOR5.1± 3.4medium
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV6.9± 2.5medium
- Jackie YoungLV6.7± 3.0medium
- Carla LeitePOR5.4± 3.6medium
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV2.2± 2.1medium
- Emily EngstlerPOR2.0± 1.2medium
- Cheyenne Parker-TyusLV0.8± 1.0low
Steals
- Emily EngstlerPOR1.5± 1.7medium
- Bridget CarletonPOR1.3± 1.1medium
- A'ja WilsonLV1.2± 1.1medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LV
league avg
POR
48.4%
FG%
44.3
44.9%
36.4%
3PT %
33.0
33.7%
90.2
PPG
85.2
81.5
23.4
Assists / G
18.0
19.8
13.0
Turnovers / G
13.0
14.9