WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+15DAL

PHX

4-10

7085

DAL

8-4

WNBAThu, Jun 11FinalSeriesDAL leads series 1-0VegasDAL -6.5

Recap · WNBA

allas Wings held off Phoenix Mercury, 85–70.

DAL -6.5 cashed (won by 15). Total stayed UNDER 169.5 by 14.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHX · top performer

Lexi Held

G · #10

13.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DAL · top performer

Paige Bueckers

G · #5

26.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. ThomasF · #25	32	6	3-8	—	0-2	-14	9	10
N. MackF · #4	22	8	3-6	—	2-2	-16	3	2
N. BrochantF · #1	22	4	2-8	0-1	—	-22	2	1
K. CopperG · #2	29	13	3-10	2-5	5-6	-12	2	3
M. Akoa MakaniG · #8	24	6	1-5	—	4-4	-7	0	1
Bench
D. BonnerF · #24	29	9	4-8	0-2	1-2	-1	7	1
J. NogicG · #29	16	7	3-8	1-5	—	-3	2	1
L. HeldG · #10	23	17	6-10	3-5	2-2	+1	4	1
Q. CarterG · #20	3	0	0-1	—	—	-1	1	1
Team		70	25-64	6-18	14-18		30	21
DNP: V. Ayayi, K. Linskens

DNP: V. Ayayi, K. Linskens

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ShepardF · #32	32	17	7-8	—	3-4	+20	10	7
M. SiegristF · #20	14	0	0-3	—	—	+5	2	0
A. OgunbowaleG · #24	29	2	1-9	0-3	—	+16	6	1
P. BueckersG · #5	32	31	14-20	3-5	—	+18	6	5
A. FuddG · #35	34	17	7-13	1-5	2-2	+21	3	4
Bench
A. ClarkF · #7	5	0	0-1	0-1	—	-4	0	1
A. SmithF · #8	16	2	1-2	—	—	+3	5	1
A. KuierF · #34	15	4	2-3	0-1	—	+2	3	1
L. YueruC · #28	2	3	1-2	—	1-1	0	1	0
A. JamesG · #10	17	7	3-9	0-3	1-1	-6	1	4
J. QuinerlyG · #11	3	2	1-1	—	—	0	0	0
Team		85	37-71	4-18	7-8		37	24

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

DAL leads series 1-0

Jun 12

PHX70@

DAL85today

Sep 19

PHX@

DALupcoming

Sep 22

DAL@

PHXupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

1.0pt· 6.2h

Total

169.5

Standard · +4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHX+22031%

DAL-27073%

13· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -6.5↗SpreadBet DAL -6.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

+2.0 since open

Total

169.5

+2.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHX ↔ DAL

Biggest swing: 11pp · 2nd Quarter · 2:31

PHX

L. Held

Game leader · 23 min

17 PTS · 4 REB · 1 AST

DAL

P. Bueckers

Game leader · 32 min30-point game

31 PTS · 6 REB · 5 AST

How it ended

DAL beat PHX 85-70. P. Bueckers paced them with 31 PTS, 6 REB, 5 AST. DAL outscored the other side 25-16 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DAL vs PHX

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHXstarters 53% of pts

Starters(5)

37 PTS · 16 REB · 17 AST

GS 22

Bench(4)

33 PTS · 14 REB · 4 AST

GS 27

DALstarters 79% of pts

Starters(5)

67 PTS · 27 REB · 17 AST

GS 58

Bench(6)

18 PTS · 10 REB · 7 AST

GS 11

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHX2nd Quarter · 2:52 · 31-36

+7pp→ 26% WP

Lexi Held · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Alyssa Thomas assists)

DAL2nd Quarter · 2:25 · 31-38

+6pp→ 79% WP

Awak Kuier · makes running layup (Jessica Shepard assists)

PHX2nd Quarter · 2:31 · 31-36

+11pp→ 26% WP

Alyssa Thomas · bad pass turnover (Jessica Shepard steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHX	20	16	16	18	70
DAL	24	21	25	15	85

Period scoring

PHX won 1 · DAL won 3

Mack 6

Bueckers 11

Held 8

Bueckers 13

Thomas 4

Brochant 11

Copper 8

Shepard 4

PHX

DAL

Shooting comparison

PHX

DAL

39%

25-64

52%

37-71

33%

6-18

3PT

22%

4-18

78%

14-18

88%

7-8

Play-by-play · 369 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 70·DAL 85
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 70·DAL 85
Q4·11.7
JJ Quinerly makes 11-foot pullup jump shot
PHX 70·DAL 85
Q4·21.1
Li Yueru defensive rebound
PHX 70·DAL 83
Q4·25.5
Noemie Brochant misses layup
PHX 70·DAL 83
Q4·42.5
Li Yueru makes free throw 1 of 1
PHX 70·DAL 83
Q4·42.5
DeWanna Bonner shooting foul
PHX 70·DAL 82
Q4·42.5
Li Yueru makes 3-foot reverse layup (Alysha Clark assists)
·
PHX 70·DAL 82
Q4·55.2
Alyssa Thomas offensive foul turnover
PHX 70·DAL 80
Q4·55.2
Alyssa Thomas offensive foul
PHX 70·DAL 80
Q4·1:11
DeWanna Bonner defensive rebound
PHX 70·DAL 80
Q4·1:14
Aziaha James misses driving floating jump shot
PHX 70·DAL 80
Q4·1:28
Noemie Brochant enters the game for Monique Akoa Makani
·
PHX 70·DAL 80
Q4·1:28
Wings Full timeout
PHX 70·DAL 80
Q4·1:28
DeWanna Bonner makes running layup (Kahleah Copper assists)
·
PHX 70·DAL 80
Q4·1:31
Li Yueru lost ball turnover (DeWanna Bonner steals)
·
PHX 68·DAL 80
Q4·1:54
Kahleah Copper makes 25-foot three point jumper (DeWanna Bonner assists)
·
PHX 68·DAL 80
Q4·2:04
DeWanna Bonner defensive rebound
PHX 65·DAL 80
Q4·2:09
Li Yueru misses 12-foot jumper
PHX 65·DAL 80
Q4·2:18
Li Yueru enters the game for Awak Kuier
·
PHX 65·DAL 80
Q4·2:18
Lexi Held personal foul
PHX 65·DAL 80
Q4·2:35
Monique Akoa Makani makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 65·DAL 80
Q4·2:35
JJ Quinerly enters the game for Arike Ogunbowale
·
PHX 64·DAL 80
Q4·2:35
Monique Akoa Makani makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 64·DAL 80
Q4·2:35
Alysha Clark shooting foul
PHX 63·DAL 80
Q4·2:38
DeWanna Bonner defensive rebound
PHX 63·DAL 80
Q4·2:39
Maddy Siegrist misses 9-foot floating jump shot
PHX 63·DAL 80
Q4·2:47
Lexi Held bad pass turnover (Arike Ogunbowale steals)
·
PHX 63·DAL 80
Q4·2:48
Lexi Held defensive rebound
PHX 63·DAL 80
Q4·2:51
Aziaha James misses driving layup
PHX 63·DAL 80

Team stats

PHX

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

25-64

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

37-71

FG %

6-18

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

4-18

14-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

7-8

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

DAL -6.5·O/U 169.5·PHX +220/DAL -270

DraftKings · via ESPN

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Natasha MackPHX · F
TS%.70899+
Kahleah CopperPHX · G
USG%.30599
Jessica ShepardDAL · F
DRB%.32899
Paige BueckersDAL · G
AST/TO2.893
Alyssa ThomasPHX · F
AST/TO2.389

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.6%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
65.1%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
65.3%
P(DAL win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
64.7%
P(DAL win)
35%
weight

Disagreement

0.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+8.4pp

best edge · PHX · DraftKings

PHX

★ best

+220DraftKings

edge +8.4pp · implied 30.0%

DAL

no live price

Book	PHX	DAL	Best edge
DraftKings	+220★	-270	+8.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

DAL vs PHX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

115

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

Kahleah CopperPHX
19.0± 9.8medium
Paige BueckersDAL
18.5± 8.7medium
Arike OgunbowaleDAL
14.8± 14.0low

Rebounds

Jessica ShepardDAL
11.8± 4.2medium
Natasha MackPHX
8.1± 3.5medium
Alyssa ThomasPHX
7.0± 3.1medium

Assists

Alyssa ThomasPHX
8.1± 2.5medium
Paige BueckersDAL
6.0± 3.9medium
Jessica ShepardDAL
5.7± 4.3medium

Blocks

Natasha MackPHX
1.3± 1.3medium
Awak KuierDAL
1.2± 1.1low
Azzi FuddDAL
1.1± 1.4medium

Steals

Alyssa ThomasPHX
1.8± 1.3medium
Monique Akoa MakaniPHX
1.6± 1.0low
Aziaha JamesDAL
1.3± 1.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

PHX

league avg

DAL

42.0%

FG%

44.3

▶

45.7%

31.5%

3PT %

33.0

▶

33.6%

82.2

PPG

85.2

▶

88.1

19.0

Assists / G

18.0

▶

23.4

12.9

Turnovers / G

13.0

▶

10.5

Data via ESPN · wehoop