Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at IND?

The model favors IND, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+8IND

CHI

4-9

106114

IND

7-5

WNBAThu, Jun 11FinalSeriesIND leads series 1-0VegasIND -9.5

CHI · top performer

Sydney Taylor

G · #12

27.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

IND · top performer

Aliyah Boston

C · #7

27.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHI ↔ IND

Biggest swing: 42pp · 4th Quarter · 1.4

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final / OT

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. StevensF · #30	26	10	3-11	0-4	4-4	-4	9	6
K. CardosoC · #10	21	10	4-6	—	2-2	-13	4	1
S. DigginsG · #4	32	21	7-15	2-4	5-7	-9	3	1
J. SheldonG · #0	26	10	3-6	1-3	3-3	-1	1	4
G. JaquezG · #11	22	6	2-6	0-2	2-2	-14	2	1
Bench
E. WilliamsC · #1	24	7	2-6	—	3-6	+2	3	1
N. CloudG · #9	34	6	3-7	0-1	—	-6	4	5
R. BanhamG · #24	5	0	0-3	0-3	—	-8	0	0
A. CoulibalyG · #35	15	6	0-3	—	6-8	+6	6	1
S. TaylorG · #12	21	30	10-14	4-7	6-6	+7	2	2
Team		106	34-77	7-24	31-38		34	22
DNP: R. Jackson, C. Vandersloot, D. Carrington, S. Poffenbarger

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BillingsF · #25	10	0	—	—	—	-2	2	1
A. BostonC · #7	32	34	13-26	2-5	6-6	+9	12	3
K. MitchellG · #0	39	19	7-17	2-6	3-4	-2	1	3
L. HullG · #10	32	11	3-13	1-7	4-4	+8	8	1
C. ClarkG · #22	40	32	8-18	1-6	15-15	+14	7	10
Bench
M. Hines-AllenF · #2	23	5	2-3	—	1-2	+25	9	3
M. TimpsonF · #21	20	4	2-3	—	—	-9	6	0
D. DantasC · #12	5	2	1-3	0-2	—	-7	1	0
T. HarrisG · #52	11	4	2-3	0-1	—	0	0	1
R. JohnsonG · #3	13	3	1-1	1-1	—	+4	0	0
Team		114	39-87	7-28	29-31		46	22
DNP: G. VanSlooten, S. Cunningham, B. Hall

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

IND

Home

34-77

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-87

FG %

7-24

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

7-28

31-38

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

29-31

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

IND leads series 1-0

Jun 11

CHI106@

IND114today

Aug 8

IND@

CHIupcoming

Aug 23

IND@

CHIupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

IND -9.5

Half-pt below key 10

Total

171.5

High-scoring · +6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHI+34023%

IND-44081%

15· 6.4h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet IND -9.5↗SpreadBet IND -9.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

9.5

0.0 since open

Total

171.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

IND beat CHI 114-106. A. Boston paced them with 34 PTS, 12 REB, 3 AST. IND outscored the other side 27-14 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

IND vs CHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHIstarters 54% of pts

Starters(5)

57 PTS · 19 REB · 13 AST

GS 41

Bench(5)

49 PTS · 15 REB · 9 AST

GS 38

INDstarters 84% of pts

Starters(5)

96 PTS · 30 REB · 18 AST

GS 74

Bench(5)

18 PTS · 16 REB · 4 AST

GS 17

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHI3rd Quarter · 28.2 · 77-73

+17pp→ 57% WP

Sydney Taylor · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Aicha Coulibaly assists)

CHI4th Quarter · 1.4 · 98-98

+42pp→ 48% WP

Skylar Diggins · makes 26-foot three pointer (Sydney Taylor assists)

CHIOT · 1:44 · 101-104

+21pp→ 45% WP

Lexie Hull · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	T
CHI	14	26	39	19	8	106
IND	27	19	27	25	16	114

Period scoring

CHI won 2 · IND won 3

Cardoso 4

Clark 10

Taylor 9

Mitchell 6

Taylor 16

Boston 9

Diggins 7

Boston 9

Taylor 5

Boston 8

CHI

IND

Shooting comparison

CHI

IND

44%

34-77

45%

39-87

29%

7-24

3PT

25%

7-28

82%

31-38

94%

29-31

Play-by-play · 534 plays

period

event

player

OT·0.0
End of Game
CHI 106·IND 114
OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
CHI 106·IND 114
OT·2.6
Caitlin Clark defensive rebound
CHI 106·IND 114
OT·2.6
Skylar Diggins misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot
CHI 106·IND 114
OT·6.8
Caitlin Clark makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 106·IND 114
OT·6.8
Caitlin Clark makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 106·IND 113
OT·6.8
Jacy Sheldon personal take foul
CHI 106·IND 112
OT·9.8
Aliyah Boston offensive rebound
CHI 106·IND 112
+0.8pp
OT·11.0
Myisha Hines-Allen misses free throw 2 of 2
CHI 106·IND 112
−1pp
OT·11.0
Myisha Hines-Allen makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 106·IND 112
OT·11.0
Jacy Sheldon personal take foul
CHI 106·IND 111
+0.6pp
OT·11.0
Myisha Hines-Allen defensive rebound
CHI 106·IND 111
+0.7pp
OT·12.4
Elizabeth Williams misses 1-foot floating jump shot
CHI 106·IND 111
+4pp
OT·21.0
Sky timeout
CHI 106·IND 111
OT·21.0
Aliyah Boston makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 106·IND 111
−2pp
OT·21.0
Aliyah Boston makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 106·IND 110
+0.7pp
OT·21.0
Jacy Sheldon personal take foulBIG MOMENT
CHI 106·IND 109
+6pp
OT·24.1
Fever timeout
CHI 106·IND 109
OT·24.1
Sydney Taylor makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
CHI 106·IND 109
+8pp
OT·24.1
Sydney Taylor makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
CHI 105·IND 109
−13pp
OT·24.1
(00:24.1) [Sky] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)BIG MOMENT
CHI 104·IND 109
+11pp
OT·24.1
Myisha Hines-Allen shooting foulBIG MOMENT
CHI 104·IND 109
−8pp
OT·30.4
8 second turnover
CHI 104·IND 109
−3pp
OT·38.4
Myisha Hines-Allen defensive rebound
CHI 104·IND 109
+1pp
OT·41.4
Jacy Sheldon misses 25-foot three point jumper
CHI 104·IND 109
+4pp
OT·46.0
Kelsey Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 104·IND 109
OT·46.0
Fever offensive team rebound
CHI 104·IND 108
−3pp
OT·46.0
Kelsey Mitchell misses free throw 1 of 2
CHI 104·IND 108
−2pp
OT·46.0
Jacy Sheldon enters the game for Natasha Cloud
·
CHI 104·IND 108
OT·46.0
Natasha Cloud shooting foulBIG MOMENT
CHI 104·IND 108
+8pp

Betting line

IND -9.5·O/U 171.5·CHI +340/IND -440

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

ndiana Fever held off Chicago Sky, 114–106 in overtime.

CHI +9.5 cashed (IND won by 8). Total cleared the 171.5 OVER by 48.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

CHI

IND

eFG%

shooting

48.7%

48.9%

TOV%

ball control

14.6%

13.0%

OREB%

offensive glass

32.5%

47.5%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

40.3%

33.3%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Caitlin ClarkIND · G
USG%.30497
Aliyah BostonIND · C
DRB%.28196
Skylar DigginsCHI · G
AST/TO2.792
Kamilla CardosoCHI · C
ORB%.10789
Kelsey MitchellIND · G
USG%.26287

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

80.6%

ensemble · IND favored

Elo Static
82.9%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
84.1%
P(IND win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
79.3%
P(IND win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.04 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-455

Close price

-455

Open no-vig

78.7%

Close no-vig

78.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at IND?: The model favors IND, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+1.9pp

best edge · CHI · DraftKings

CHI

★ best

+470DraftKings

edge +1.9pp · implied 16.6%

IND

no live price

Book	CHI	IND	Best edge
DraftKings	+470★	-750	+1.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

IND vs CHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 95 high confidence

Points

Kelsey MitchellIND
25.6± 3.6high
Caitlin ClarkIND
21.1± 10.9high
Rickea JacksonCHI
16.0± 11.0low

Rebounds

Kamilla CardosoCHI
7.8± 3.0high
Azura StevensCHI
7.2± 2.9high
Aliyah BostonIND
7.2± 3.3high

Assists

Caitlin ClarkIND
7.3± 2.4high
Natasha CloudCHI
5.2± 1.8high
Skylar DigginsCHI
4.9± 2.4high

Blocks

Kamilla CardosoCHI
1.4± 1.2high
Rickea JacksonCHI
1.2± 1.6low
Elizabeth WilliamsCHI
0.9± 0.9high

Steals

Kelsey MitchellIND
1.5± 1.4high
Azura StevensCHI
1.3± 1.1high
Courtney VanderslootCHI
1.2± 1.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Chicago SkyIndiana Fever

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop