CHI
4-9
IND
7-5
Recap · WNBA
ndiana Fever held off Chicago Sky, 114–106 in overtime.
CHI +9.5 cashed (IND won by 8). Total cleared the 171.5 OVER by 48.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CHI · top performer
Sydney Taylor
G · #12
30
Pts
2
Reb
2
Ast
IND · top performer
Aliyah Boston
C · #7
34
Pts
12
Reb
3
Ast
WNBA · Chicago Sky at Indiana Fever · final
WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | +/- | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 26 | 10 | 3-11 | 0-4 | 4-4 | -4 | 9 | 6 | |
| 21 | 10 | 4-6 | — | 2-2 | -13 | 4 | 1 | |
| 32 | 21 | 7-15 | 2-4 | 5-7 | -9 | 3 | 1 | |
| 26 | 10 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 3-3 | -1 | 1 | 4 | |
| 22 | 6 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 2-2 | -14 | 2 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 24 | 7 | 2-6 | — | 3-6 | +2 | 3 | 1 | |
| 34 | 6 | 3-7 | 0-1 | — | -6 | 4 | 5 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 | — | -8 | 0 | 0 | |
| 15 | 6 | 0-3 | — | 6-8 | +6 | 6 | 1 | |
| 21 | 30 | 10-14 | 4-7 | 6-6 | +7 | 2 | 2 | |
| Team | 106 | 34-77 | 7-24 | 31-38 | 34 | 22 | ||
| DNP: R. Jackson, C. Vandersloot, D. Carrington, S. Poffenbarger | ||||||||
DNP: R. Jackson, C. Vandersloot, D. Carrington, S. Poffenbarger
| Player | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | +/- | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 10 | 0 | — | — | — | -2 | 2 | 1 | |
| 32 | 34 | 13-26 | 2-5 | 6-6 | +9 | 12 | 3 | |
| 39 | 19 | 7-17 | 2-6 | 3-4 | -2 | 1 | 3 | |
| 32 | 11 | 3-13 | 1-7 | 4-4 | +8 | 8 | 1 | |
| 40 | 32 | 8-18 | 1-6 | 15-15 | +14 | 7 | 10 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 23 | 5 | 2-3 | — | 1-2 | +25 | 9 | 3 | |
| 20 | 4 | 2-3 | — | — | -9 | 6 | 0 | |
| 5 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 | — | -7 | 1 | 0 | |
| 11 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-1 | — | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 13 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | — | +4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 114 | 39-87 | 7-28 | 29-31 | 46 | 22 | ||
| DNP: G. VanSlooten, S. Cunningham, B. Hall | ||||||||
DNP: G. VanSlooten, S. Cunningham, B. Hall
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
44
FG %
45
22
Ast
22
Season series
IND leads series 1-0
CHI106@IND114todayIND@CHIupcomingIND@CHIupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
IND -9.5
Half-pt below key 10
Total
171.5
High-scoring · +6.5 vs avg
Moneyline
CHI+34023%IND-44081%15· 6.4h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
9.5
0.0 since open
Total
171.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 42pp · 4th Quarter · 1.4
CHIS. Taylor
GGame leader · 21 min30+ point game
30 PTS · 2 REB · 2 AST
INDA. Boston
CGame leader · 32 min30+ point game
34 PTS · 12 REB · 3 AST
How it ended
IND beat CHI 114-106. A. Boston paced them with 34 PTS, 12 REB, 3 AST. IND outscored the other side 27-14 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
IND vs CHI
Starters vs bench
production by unitCHIstarters 54% of ptsStarters(5)
57 PTS · 19 REB · 13 AST
GS 41
Bench(5)
49 PTS · 15 REB · 9 AST
GS 38
INDstarters 84% of ptsStarters(5)
96 PTS · 30 REB · 18 AST
GS 74
Bench(5)
18 PTS · 16 REB · 4 AST
GS 17
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactSydney Taylor · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Aicha Coulibaly assists)
Skylar Diggins · makes 26-foot three pointer (Sydney Taylor assists)
Lexie Hull · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 14 | 26 | 39 | 19 | 8 | 106 |
| IND | 27 | 19 | 27 | 25 | 16 | 114 |
Period scoring
CHI won 2 · IND won 3
Q1
Cardoso 4
Clark 10
Q2
Taylor 9
Mitchell 6
Q3
Taylor 16
Boston 9
Q4
Diggins 7
Boston 9
OT
Taylor 5
Boston 8
Shooting comparison
44%
34-77
FG
45%
39-87
29%
7-24
3PT
25%
7-28
82%
31-38
FT
94%
29-31
Play-by-play · 534 plays
- OT·0.0
End of Game
CHI 106·IND 114
- OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
CHI 106·IND 114
- OT·2.6
Caitlin Clark defensive rebound
CHI 106·IND 114
- OT·2.6
Skylar Diggins misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot
CHI 106·IND 114
- OT·6.8
Caitlin Clark makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 106·IND 114
- OT·6.8
Caitlin Clark makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 106·IND 113
- OT·6.8
Jacy Sheldon personal take foul
CHI 106·IND 112
- OT·9.8
Aliyah Boston offensive rebound
CHI 106·IND 112
+0.8pp
- OT·11.0
Myisha Hines-Allen misses free throw 2 of 2
CHI 106·IND 112
−1pp
- OT·11.0
Myisha Hines-Allen makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 106·IND 112
- OT·11.0
Jacy Sheldon personal take foul
CHI 106·IND 111
+0.6pp
- OT·11.0
Myisha Hines-Allen defensive rebound
CHI 106·IND 111
+0.7pp
- OT·12.4
Elizabeth Williams misses 1-foot floating jump shot
CHI 106·IND 111
+4pp
- OT·21.0
Sky timeout
CHI 106·IND 111
- OT·21.0
Aliyah Boston makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 106·IND 111
−2pp
- OT·21.0
Aliyah Boston makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 106·IND 110
+0.7pp
- OT·21.0
Jacy Sheldon personal take foulBIG MOMENT
CHI 106·IND 109
+6pp
- OT·24.1
Fever timeout
CHI 106·IND 109
- OT·24.1
Sydney Taylor makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
CHI 106·IND 109
+8pp
- OT·24.1
Sydney Taylor makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
CHI 105·IND 109
−13pp
- OT·24.1
(00:24.1) [Sky] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)BIG MOMENT
CHI 104·IND 109
+11pp
- OT·24.1
Myisha Hines-Allen shooting foulBIG MOMENT
CHI 104·IND 109
−8pp
- OT·30.4
8 second turnover
CHI 104·IND 109
−3pp
- OT·38.4
Myisha Hines-Allen defensive rebound
CHI 104·IND 109
+1pp
- OT·41.4
Jacy Sheldon misses 25-foot three point jumper
CHI 104·IND 109
+4pp
- OT·46.0
Kelsey Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 104·IND 109
- OT·46.0
Fever offensive team rebound
CHI 104·IND 108
−3pp
- OT·46.0
Kelsey Mitchell misses free throw 1 of 2
CHI 104·IND 108
−2pp
- OT·46.0
Jacy Sheldon enters the game for Natasha Cloud
·
CHI 104·IND 108
- OT·46.0
Natasha Cloud shooting foulBIG MOMENT
CHI 104·IND 108
+8pp
Team stats
CHI
Away
Stat
IND
Home
34-77
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
39-87
44
FG %
45
7-24
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
7-28
31-38
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
29-31
22
Assists
22
16
Turnovers
15
Betting line
IND -9.5·O/U 171.5·CHI +340/IND -440
WNBA · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Caitlin ClarkIND · GUSG%.30599- Aliyah BostonIND · CDRB%.27795
Skylar DigginsCHI · GAST/TO2.792
Kamilla CardosoCHI · CORB%.10788
Kelsey MitchellIND · GUSG%.26186
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
79.8%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
82.4%
P(IND win)
32%
weight
Elo Recent
82.5%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
80.8%
P(IND win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.79 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
95% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
-455
Close price
-455
Open no-vig
78.7%
Close no-vig
78.7%
Line barely moved · Graded: hit
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+3.0pp
best edge · CHI · DraftKings
CHI
★ bestedge +3.0pp · implied 16.6%
IND
no live price
| Book | CHI | IND | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +470★ | -750 | +3.0 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player projections
IND vs CHI.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
120
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.3± 11.3low
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.3± 4.2medium
- Aliyah BostonIND16.6± 11.3low
Rebounds
- Kamilla CardosoCHI8.2± 4.5medium
- Aliyah BostonIND8.2± 4.6low
- Azura StevensCHI5.6± 5.4low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.8± 2.5low
- Natasha CloudCHI4.3± 3.2low
- Skylar DigginsCHI3.9± 3.2low
Blocks
- Kamilla CardosoCHI1.9± 2.2medium
- Aliyah BostonIND1.3± 1.7low
- Elizabeth WilliamsCHI1.2± 1.4low
Steals
- Aicha CoulibalyCHI1.2± 1.1low
- Gabriela JaquezCHI1.1± 1.0low
- Jacy SheldonCHI1.0± 1.5medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CHI
league avg
IND
41.8%
FG%
44.3
▶44.7%
29.9%
3PT %
32.9
▶31.9%
82.2
PPG
85.2
▶90.3
19.1
Assists / G
18.0
▶21.2
12.7
Turnovers / G
13.0
14.8