Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at MIN?

The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+24MIN

DAL

7-4

76100

MIN

10-2

WNBATue, Jun 9FinalSeriesMIN leads series 3-0VegasMIN -4.5

DAL · top performer

Arike Ogunbowale

G · #24

19.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIN · top performer

Olivia Miles

G · #5

23.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDAL ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 9pp · 1st Quarter · 9:15

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ShepardF · #32	29	12	6-10	0-1	—	-26	9	4
M. SiegristF · #20	22	4	2-6	0-1	—	-13	7	2
A. OgunbowaleG · #24	28	16	4-8	2-4	6-6	-21	3	6
P. BueckersG · #5	30	23	9-16	3-7	2-2	-16	1	2
A. FuddG · #35	30	6	2-12	2-6	—	-15	0	0
Bench
A. ClarkF · #7	14	0	0-5	0-4	—	-3	1	0
A. SmithF · #8	9	0	0-2	0-1	—	-4	2	1
L. YueruC · #28	6	2	0-1	0-1	2-2	-2	2	0
A. JamesG · #10	16	9	4-13	1-2	—	-12	5	0
J. QuinerlyG · #11	10	0	0-2	0-1	—	-4	1	2
C. VeronaG · #6	6	4	2-2	—	—	-4	0	2
Team		76	29-77	8-28	10-10		31	19
DNP: A. Kuier, O. Sims

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. HowardF · #1	29	21	8-10	1-1	4-4	+21	4	4
N. CoffeyF · #12	25	6	3-10	0-3	—	+10	8	1
K. McBrideG · #21	30	22	7-10	4-6	4-4	+13	5	4
C. WilliamsG · #10	31	16	8-14	—	—	+21	8	2
O. MilesG · #5	31	24	7-10	2-3	8-8	+18	7	6
Bench
A. DelaereF · #8	14	2	1-2	—	—	+12	1	2
A. KosuF · #7	20	6	3-10	—	—	+13	5	2
T. McCowanC · #15	6	0	—	—	—	+4	1	0
M. CaldwellG · #3	15	3	1-5	0-1	1-2	+8	2	0
Team		100	38-71	7-14	17-18		41	21
DNP: N. Collier, D. Juhasz, E. Cechova

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

29-77

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

38-71

FG %

8-28

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

7-14

10-10

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIN leads series 3-0

May 15

MIN90@

DAL86

Jun 10

DAL76@

MIN100today

Jun 28

MIN85@

DAL77

Aug 9

DAL@

MINupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

1.0pt· 6.3h

Total

170.5

High-scoring · +5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL+15439%

MIN-18565%

10· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -4.5↗SpreadBet MIN -4.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

170.5

+1.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat DAL 100-76. O. Miles led with 24 PTS, 7 REB, 6 AST. MIN outscored the other side 30-18 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIN vs DAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DALstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

61 PTS · 20 REB · 14 AST

GS 46

Bench(6)

15 PTS · 11 REB · 5 AST

GS 6

MINstarters 89% of pts

Starters(5)

89 PTS · 32 REB · 17 AST

GS 82

Bench(4)

11 PTS · 9 REB · 4 AST

GS 7

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIN1st Quarter · 9:15 · 0-0

+9pp→ 66% WP

Paige Bueckers · bad pass turnover (Courtney Williams steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DAL	18	20	22	16	76
MIN	30	28	17	25	100

Period scoring

DAL won 1 · MIN won 3

Ogunbowale 10

McBride 8

Bueckers 9

Miles 9

Fudd 6

McBride 7

Bueckers 4

Miles 6

DAL

MIN

Shooting comparison

DAL

MIN

38%

29-77

54%

38-71

29%

8-28

3PT

50%

7-14

100%

10-10

94%

17-18

Play-by-play · 377 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 76·MIN 100
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 76·MIN 100
Q4·1.9
Aziaha James defensive rebound
DAL 76·MIN 100
Q4·5.2
Maya Caldwell misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
DAL 76·MIN 100
Q4·12.1
Costanza Verona makes 12-foot pullup jump shot
DAL 76·MIN 100
Q4·30.7
Courtney Williams makes 17-foot pullup jump shot
DAL 74·MIN 100
Q4·39.8
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu defensive rebound
DAL 74·MIN 98
Q4·41.2
Aziaha James misses driving floating jump shot
DAL 74·MIN 98
Q4·56.8
Maya Caldwell makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 74·MIN 98
Q4·56.8
Lynx offensive team rebound
DAL 74·MIN 97
Q4·56.8
Maya Caldwell misses free throw 1 of 2
DAL 74·MIN 97
Q4·56.8
Aziaha James shooting foul
DAL 74·MIN 97
Q4·58.9
Antonia Delaere defensive rebound
DAL 74·MIN 97
Q4·1:03
JJ Quinerly misses running pullup jump shot
DAL 74·MIN 97
Q4·1:06
Aziaha James defensive rebound
DAL 74·MIN 97
Q4·1:09
JJ Quinerly blocks Anastasiia Olairi Kosu 's 1-foot two point shot
·
DAL 74·MIN 97
Q4·1:10
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu offensive rebound
DAL 74·MIN 97
Q4·1:14
Maya Caldwell misses 17-foot pullup jump shot
DAL 74·MIN 97
Q4·1:33
Courtney Williams defensive rebound
DAL 74·MIN 97
Q4·1:36
Alysha Clark misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
DAL 74·MIN 97
Q4·1:46
Courtney Williams makes 20-foot pullup jump shot
DAL 74·MIN 97
Q4·1:54
Li Yueru personal foul
DAL 74·MIN 95
Q4·2:02
Li Yueru offensive foul turnover
DAL 74·MIN 95
Q4·2:02
Li Yueru offensive foul
DAL 74·MIN 95
Q4·2:14
Teaira McCowan personal foul
DAL 74·MIN 95
Q4·2:14
Li Yueru defensive rebound
DAL 74·MIN 95
Q4·2:17
Antonia Delaere misses 19-foot pullup jump shot
DAL 74·MIN 95
Q4·2:29
Courtney Williams enters the game for Olivia Miles
·
DAL 74·MIN 95
Q4·2:29
Li Yueru loose ball foul
DAL 74·MIN 95
Q4·2:29
Lynx offensive team rebound
DAL 74·MIN 95

Betting line

MIN -4.5·O/U 170.5·DAL +154/MIN -185

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

innesota Lynx held off Dallas Wings, 100–76. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

MIN -4.5 cashed (won by 24). Total cleared the 170.5 OVER by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

DAL

MIN

eFG%

shooting

42.9%

58.5%

TOV%

ball control

12.8%

13.2%

OREB%

offensive glass

18.6%

20.7%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

13.0%

23.9%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jessica ShepardDAL · F
DRB%.32899
Natasha HowardMIN · F
ORB%.15099
Paige BueckersDAL · G
AST/TO2.893
Nia CoffeyMIN · F
eFG%.60991
Kayla McBrideMIN · G
AST/TO2.391

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

79.7%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
81.7%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
82.8%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
79.7%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.28 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.60

CLV pp

Open price

-198

Close price

-192

Open no-vig

63.7%

Close no-vig

63.1%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at MIN?: The model favors MIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+17.9pp

best edge · MIN · DraftKings

DAL

no live price

MIN

★ best

-185DraftKings

edge +17.9pp · implied 62.2%

Book	DAL	MIN	Best edge
DraftKings	+154	-185★	+17.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

MIN vs DAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 95 high confidence

Points

Kayla McBrideMIN
21.8± 7.0high
Paige BueckersDAL
21.0± 6.3high
Olivia MilesMIN
19.2± 7.9high

Rebounds

Jessica ShepardDAL
12.1± 4.1high
Natasha HowardMIN
7.5± 2.9high
Olivia MilesMIN
5.2± 2.8high

Assists

Paige BueckersDAL
6.3± 1.9high
Olivia MilesMIN
6.0± 2.9high
Jessica ShepardDAL
5.4± 3.1high

Blocks

Awak KuierDAL
1.4± 1.4high
Nia CoffeyMIN
1.1± 1.1high
Dorka JuhaszMIN
1.0± 0.3low

Steals

Kayla McBrideMIN
1.9± 1.4high
Azzi FuddDAL
1.8± 1.3high
Natasha HowardMIN
1.7± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Dallas WingsMinnesota Lynx

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop