WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+24MIN

DAL

7-4

76100

MIN

10-2

WNBATue, Jun 9FinalSeriesMIN leads series 2-0VegasMIN -4.5

Recap · WNBA

innesota Lynx held off Dallas Wings, 100–76. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

MIN -4.5 cashed (won by 24). Total cleared the 170.5 OVER by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DAL · top performer

Arike Ogunbowale

G · #24

19.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIN · top performer

Olivia Miles

G · #5

23.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ShepardF · #32	29	12	6-10	0-1	—	-26	9	4
M. SiegristF · #20	22	4	2-6	0-1	—	-13	7	2
A. OgunbowaleG · #24	28	16	4-8	2-4	6-6	-21	3	6
P. BueckersG · #5	30	23	9-16	3-7	2-2	-16	1	2
A. FuddG · #35	30	6	2-12	2-6	—	-15	0	0
Bench
A. ClarkF · #7	14	0	0-5	0-4	—	-3	1	0
A. SmithF · #8	9	0	0-2	0-1	—	-4	2	1
L. YueruC · #28	6	2	0-1	0-1	2-2	-2	2	0
A. JamesG · #10	16	9	4-13	1-2	—	-12	5	0
J. QuinerlyG · #11	10	0	0-2	0-1	—	-4	1	2
C. VeronaG · #6	6	4	2-2	—	—	-4	0	2
Team		76	29-77	8-28	10-10		31	19
DNP: A. Kuier, O. Sims

DNP: A. Kuier, O. Sims

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. HowardF · #1	29	21	8-10	1-1	4-4	+21	4	4
N. CoffeyF · #12	25	6	3-10	0-3	—	+10	8	1
K. McBrideG · #21	30	22	7-10	4-6	4-4	+13	5	4
C. WilliamsG · #10	31	16	8-14	—	—	+21	8	2
O. MilesG · #5	31	24	7-10	2-3	8-8	+18	7	6
Bench
A. DelaereF · #8	14	2	1-2	—	—	+12	1	2
A. KosuF · #7	20	6	3-10	—	—	+13	5	2
T. McCowanC · #15	6	0	—	—	—	+4	1	0
M. CaldwellG · #3	15	3	1-5	0-1	1-2	+8	2	0
Team		100	38-71	7-14	17-18		41	21
DNP: N. Collier, D. Juhasz, E. Cechova

DNP: N. Collier, D. Juhasz, E. Cechova

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

MIN leads series 2-0

May 15

MIN90@

DAL86

Jun 10

DAL76@

MIN100today

Jun 28

MIN@

DALupcoming

Aug 9

DAL@

MINupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

1.0pt· 6.3h

Total

170.5

High-scoring · +5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL+15439%

MIN-18565%

10· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -4.5↗SpreadBet MIN -4.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

170.5

+1.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowDAL ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 9pp · 1st Quarter · 9:15

DAL

A. Ogunbowale

Game leader · 28 min

16 PTS · 3 REB · 6 AST

MIN

O. Miles

Game leader · 31 min

24 PTS · 7 REB · 6 AST

How it ended

MIN beat DAL 100-76. O. Miles led with 24 PTS, 7 REB, 6 AST. MIN outscored the other side 30-18 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIN vs DAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DALstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

61 PTS · 20 REB · 14 AST

GS 46

Bench(6)

15 PTS · 11 REB · 5 AST

GS 6

MINstarters 89% of pts

Starters(5)

89 PTS · 32 REB · 17 AST

GS 82

Bench(4)

11 PTS · 9 REB · 4 AST

GS 7

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIN1st Quarter · 9:15 · 0-0

+9pp→ 66% WP

Paige Bueckers · bad pass turnover (Courtney Williams steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DAL	18	20	22	16	76
MIN	30	28	17	25	100

Period scoring

DAL won 1 · MIN won 3

Ogunbowale 10

McBride 8

Bueckers 9

Miles 9

Fudd 6

McBride 7

Bueckers 4

Miles 6

DAL

MIN

Shooting comparison

DAL

MIN

38%

29-77

54%

38-71

29%

8-28

3PT

50%

7-14

100%

10-10

94%

17-18

Play-by-play · 377 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 76·MIN 100
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 76·MIN 100
Q4·1.9
Aziaha James defensive rebound
DAL 76·MIN 100
Q4·5.2
Maya Caldwell misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
DAL 76·MIN 100
Q4·12.1
Costanza Verona makes 12-foot pullup jump shot
DAL 76·MIN 100
Q4·30.7
Courtney Williams makes 17-foot pullup jump shot
DAL 74·MIN 100
Q4·39.8
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu defensive rebound
DAL 74·MIN 98
Q4·41.2
Aziaha James misses driving floating jump shot
DAL 74·MIN 98
Q4·56.8
Maya Caldwell makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 74·MIN 98
Q4·56.8
Lynx offensive team rebound
DAL 74·MIN 97
Q4·56.8
Maya Caldwell misses free throw 1 of 2
DAL 74·MIN 97
Q4·56.8
Aziaha James shooting foul
DAL 74·MIN 97
Q4·58.9
Antonia Delaere defensive rebound
DAL 74·MIN 97
Q4·1:03
JJ Quinerly misses running pullup jump shot
DAL 74·MIN 97
Q4·1:06
Aziaha James defensive rebound
DAL 74·MIN 97
Q4·1:09
JJ Quinerly blocks Anastasiia Olairi Kosu 's 1-foot two point shot
·
DAL 74·MIN 97
Q4·1:10
Anastasiia Olairi Kosu offensive rebound
DAL 74·MIN 97
Q4·1:14
Maya Caldwell misses 17-foot pullup jump shot
DAL 74·MIN 97
Q4·1:33
Courtney Williams defensive rebound
DAL 74·MIN 97
Q4·1:36
Alysha Clark misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
DAL 74·MIN 97
Q4·1:46
Courtney Williams makes 20-foot pullup jump shot
DAL 74·MIN 97
Q4·1:54
Li Yueru personal foul
DAL 74·MIN 95
Q4·2:02
Li Yueru offensive foul turnover
DAL 74·MIN 95
Q4·2:02
Li Yueru offensive foul
DAL 74·MIN 95
Q4·2:14
Teaira McCowan personal foul
DAL 74·MIN 95
Q4·2:14
Li Yueru defensive rebound
DAL 74·MIN 95
Q4·2:17
Antonia Delaere misses 19-foot pullup jump shot
DAL 74·MIN 95
Q4·2:29
Courtney Williams enters the game for Olivia Miles
·
DAL 74·MIN 95
Q4·2:29
Li Yueru loose ball foul
DAL 74·MIN 95
Q4·2:29
Lynx offensive team rebound
DAL 74·MIN 95

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

29-77

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

38-71

FG %

8-28

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

7-14

10-10

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-18

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

MIN -4.5·O/U 170.5·DAL +154/MIN -185

DraftKings · via ESPN

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jessica ShepardDAL · F
DRB%.32899
Natasha HowardMIN · F
ORB%.15099
Paige BueckersDAL · G
AST/TO2.893
Nia CoffeyMIN · F
eFG%.60991
Kayla McBrideMIN · G
AST/TO2.391

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

82.3%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
81.7%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
84.9%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
82.4%
P(MIN win)
35%
weight

Disagreement

1.36 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.60

CLV pp

Open price

-198

Close price

-192

Open no-vig

63.7%

Close no-vig

63.1%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+18.6pp

best edge · MIN · DraftKings

DAL

no live price

MIN

★ best

-185DraftKings

edge +18.6pp · implied 62.2%

Book	DAL	MIN	Best edge
DraftKings	+154	-185★	+18.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

MIN vs DAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

110

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

Paige BueckersDAL
18.5± 8.7medium
Olivia MilesMIN
18.2± 6.8medium
Natasha HowardMIN
17.8± 6.7medium

Rebounds

Jessica ShepardDAL
11.8± 4.2medium
Natasha HowardMIN
7.2± 3.6medium
Nia CoffeyMIN
5.8± 2.2medium

Assists

Paige BueckersDAL
6.0± 3.9medium
Jessica ShepardDAL
5.7± 4.3medium
Olivia MilesMIN
5.7± 2.7medium

Blocks

Nia CoffeyMIN
1.3± 1.4medium
Awak KuierDAL
1.2± 1.1low
Azzi FuddDAL
1.1± 1.4medium

Steals

Natasha HowardMIN
1.9± 1.8medium
Kayla McBrideMIN
1.6± 1.1medium
Olivia MilesMIN
1.4± 1.1medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

DAL

league avg

MIN

45.7%

FG%

44.3

▶

50.8%

33.6%

3PT %

33.0

▶

39.4%

88.1

PPG

85.2

▶

92.6

23.4

Assists / G

◀

18.0

22.1

10.5

Turnovers / G

◀

13.0

13.7

Data via ESPN · wehoop