Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHX at GS?

The model favors GS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+6GS

PHX

4-9

8187

7-5

WNBATue, Jun 9FinalSeriesGS wins series 2-1VegasGS -7.5

PHX · top performer

Alyssa Thomas

F · #25

21.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

GS · top performer

Veronica Burton

G · #22

19.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPHX ↔ GS

Biggest swing: 21pp · 4th Quarter · 8:45

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. ThomasF · #25	32	22	9-14	—	4-7	+2	8	9
N. MackF · #4	25	9	3-5	1-1	2-5	-16	10	1
N. BrochantF · #1	29	10	4-6	2-4	—	-3	2	6
K. CopperG · #2	26	9	3-11	1-4	2-2	+3	4	1
M. Akoa MakaniG · #8	32	19	7-11	3-5	2-2	-7	3	3
Bench
D. BonnerF · #24	28	3	1-7	1-5	—	-2	4	0
J. NogicG · #29	9	2	1-3	0-2	—	-4	0	1
L. HeldG · #10	15	5	2-7	1-3	—	0	2	2
Q. CarterG · #20	3	2	0-1	0-1	2-2	-3	0	0
Team		81	30-65	9-25	12-18		33	23
DNP: V. Ayayi, K. Linskens

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. ThorntonF · #5	35	12	3-7	2-5	4-5	+15	4	2
G. WilliamsF · #1	30	25	9-19	3-6	4-6	0	4	1
C. ZandalasiniF · #24	17	0	0-2	0-2	—	-6	0	1
K. StokesC · #41	20	3	1-2	1-1	—	-4	4	3
V. BurtonG · #22	37	25	7-15	2-7	9-11	+7	3	8
Bench
J. SalaunF · #13	25	11	3-7	2-5	3-3	+1	5	0
T. HayesG · #15	13	7	2-3	0-1	3-3	+11	1	3
K. CharlesG · #6	20	4	2-6	0-2	—	+7	6	0
K. ChenG · #2	3	0	—	—	—	-1	0	0
Team		87	27-61	10-29	23-28		27	18
DNP: L. Amihere, N. Fingall, J. Jocyte

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

PHX

Away

Stat

Home

30-65

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

27-61

FG %

9-25

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-29

12-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

23-28

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

GS wins series 2-1

May 11

PHX79@

GS95

Jun 10

PHX81@

GS87today

Jul 30

GS89@

PHX91

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

GS -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

1.0pt· 6.5h

Total

162.5

Standard · -2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHX+26028%

GS-32576%

20· 6.5h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet GS -7.5↗SpreadBet GS -7.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

162.5

+1.0 since open

How it ended

GS beat PHX 87-81. V. Burton paced them with 25 PTS, 3 REB, 8 AST. GS outscored the other side 27-14 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

GS vs PHX

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHXstarters 85% of pts

Starters(5)

69 PTS · 27 REB · 20 AST

GS 62

Bench(4)

12 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST

GS 1

GSstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

65 PTS · 15 REB · 15 AST

GS 50

Bench(4)

22 PTS · 12 REB · 3 AST

GS 18

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

GS1st Quarter · 5:52 · 8-10

+14pp→ 67% WP

Veronica Burton la · ne violation

GS4th Quarter · 4:53 · 69-74

+14pp→ 84% WP

shot clock turnover

PHX4th Quarter · 4:06 · 72-74

+18pp→ 32% WP

Kahleah Copper · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Alyssa Thomas assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHX	18	14	29	20	81
GS	22	27	17	21	87

Period scoring

PHX won 1 · GS won 3

Makani 9

Burton 9

Copper 6

Burton 10

Thomas 13

Salaun 6

Thomas 7

Williams 17

PHX

Shooting comparison

PHX

46%

30-65

44%

27-61

36%

9-25

3PT

34%

10-29

67%

12-18

82%

23-28

Play-by-play · 383 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 81·GS 87
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 81·GS 87
Q4·0.0
Mercury offensive team rebound
PHX 81·GS 87
Q4·0.0
Monique Akoa Makani misses 26-foot three point jumper
PHX 81·GS 87
+0.5pp
Q4·4.4
Mercury timeout
PHX 81·GS 87
Q4·4.4
Kayla Thornton makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 81·GS 87
Q4·4.4
Kayla Thornton makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 81·GS 86
Q4·4.4
Monique Akoa Makani personal foulBIG MOMENT
PHX 81·GS 85
+12pp
Q4·6.2
Kaila Charles defensive rebound
PHX 81·GS 85
+2pp
Q4·10.2
DeWanna Bonner misses 27-foot three point jumper
PHX 81·GS 85
+3pp
Q4·11.8
Mercury Full timeout
PHX 81·GS 85
Q4·11.8
Gabby Williams makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 81·GS 85
−1pp
Q4·11.8
Natasha Mack enters the game for Noemie Brochant
·
PHX 81·GS 84
Q4·11.8
Golden State Valkyries offensive team rebound
PHX 81·GS 84
−2pp
Q4·11.8
Gabby Williams misses free throw 1 of 2
PHX 81·GS 84
−2pp
Q4·11.8
Monique Akoa Makani personal foul
PHX 81·GS 84
+4pp
Q4·13.5
Alyssa Thomas bad pass turnover (Gabby Williams steals)BIG MOMENT
·
PHX 81·GS 84
+13pp
Q4·24.9
DeWanna Bonner defensive rebound
PHX 81·GS 84
−1pp
Q4·28.4
Kaila Charles misses 22-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
PHX 81·GS 84
−6pp
Q4·37.5
Gabby Williams offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
PHX 81·GS 84
+8pp
Q4·41.5
Veronica Burton misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
PHX 81·GS 84
−6pp
Q4·51.7
Alyssa Thomas makes free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
PHX 81·GS 84
+8pp
Q4·51.7
Veronica Burton shooting foulBIG MOMENT
PHX 80·GS 84
−13pp
Q4·51.7
Alyssa Thomas makes 6-foot turnaround jump shot (Noemie Brochant assists)
·
PHX 80·GS 84
−3pp
Q4·1:04
Mercury Full timeout
PHX 78·GS 84
Q4·1:04
DeWanna Bonner defensive rebound
PHX 78·GS 84
−0.8pp
Q4·1:05
Gabby Williams misses 27-foot three point jumper
PHX 78·GS 84
−2pp
Q4·1:21
Alyssa Thomas bad pass turnover (Janelle Salaun steals)
·
PHX 78·GS 84
+4pp
Q4·1:39
Gabby Williams makes free throw 1 of 1
PHX 78·GS 84
−3pp
Q4·1:39
Noemie Brochant shooting foulBIG MOMENT
PHX 78·GS 83
+10pp

Betting line

GS -7.5·O/U 162.5·PHX +260/GS -325

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

olden State Valkyries held off Phoenix Mercury, 87–81.

PHX +7.5 cashed (GS won by 6). Total cleared the 162.5 OVER by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

PHX

eFG%

shooting

53.1%

52.5%

TOV%

ball control

14.1%

10.9%

OREB%

offensive glass

30.0%

20.0%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

18.5%

37.7%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Natasha MackPHX · F
TS%.70899+
Kiah StokesGS · C
AST/TO3.899+
Kahleah CopperPHX · G
USG%.30599
Veronica BurtonGS · G
AST/TO3.797
Alyssa ThomasPHX · F
AST/TO2.389

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

71.7%

ensemble · GS favored

Elo Static
75.8%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
75.8%
P(GS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
71.8%
P(GS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.88 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.42

CLV pp

Open price

-325

Close price

-355

Open no-vig

73.4%

Close no-vig

74.8%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHX at GS?: The model favors GS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+17.0pp

best edge · PHX · DraftKings

PHX

★ best

+1100DraftKings

edge +17.0pp · implied 9.8%

no live price

Book	PHX	GS	Best edge
DraftKings	+1100★	-325	+17.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

GS vs PHX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

115

projections · 85 high confidence

Points

Kahleah CopperPHX
20.2± 8.1high
Alyssa ThomasPHX
15.3± 7.0high
Gabby WilliamsGS
14.0± 6.8high

Rebounds

Alyssa ThomasPHX
7.5± 2.7high
DeWanna BonnerPHX
7.0± 2.1high
Natasha MackPHX
6.9± 3.4high

Assists

Alyssa ThomasPHX
8.3± 3.9high
Veronica BurtonGS
5.5± 2.6high
Tiffany HayesGS
2.6± 1.6high

Blocks

Kiah StokesGS
1.9± 1.9high
Natasha MackPHX
1.1± 0.9high
Alyssa ThomasPHX
0.7± 0.4high

Steals

Gabby WilliamsGS
1.7± 1.1high
Veronica BurtonGS
1.6± 1.1high
Alyssa ThomasPHX
1.4± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Phoenix MercuryGolden State Valkyries

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop